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NNE Fall Thread

dryslot

By dryslot,
in New England

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eekuasepinniW

eekuasepinniW

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Make it to either volcano yet?

Not going to the big island on this trip. I did Haleakala though, then the road to Hana. My inner weenie was overstimulated by all the climate changes from desert to jungle to deluge to desert to surface of mars.  My resting pulse at 10023' is like 115 which was alarming.

On Kauai now, where it's currently raining at hanalei bay.

My cam died on the 8th and my vp2 died a few days later, lolz.  They have legit separation anxiety it seems....this always happens.

 

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Hitman

Hitman

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Not going to the big island on this trip. I did Haleakala though, then the road to Hana. My inner weenie was overstimulated by all the climate changes from desert to jungle to deluge to desert to surface of mars.  My resting pulse at 10023' is like 115 which was alarming.

On Kauai now, where it's currently raining at hanalei bay.

My cam died on the 8th and my vp2 died a few days later, lolz.  They have legit separation anxiety it seems....this always happens.

 

was there a couple years ago.  stayed in hanalei for 10 days.  pretty close to paradise.  check out hanalei roasters for coffee and the kalalau trail.  enjoy.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, eekuasepinniW said:

Not going to the big island on this trip. I did Haleakala though, then the road to Hana. My inner weenie was overstimulated by all the climate changes from desert to jungle to deluge to desert to surface of mars.  My resting pulse at 10023' is like 115 which was alarming.

On Kauai now, where it's currently raining at hanalei bay.

My cam died on the 8th and my vp2 died a few days later, lolz.  They have legit separation anxiety it seems....this always happens.

We hiked down about a mile into the crater there and I felt like calling for someone to carry me out. Eye opening to say the least. 

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted

On ‎11‎/‎8‎/‎2016 at 5:05 PM, backedgeapproaching said:

Maybe a miracle pattern flip to end the month

 

Well, I’m not sure if it qualifies as a miracle or not, but Roger Hill already says he’s anticipating a white Thanksgiving around here per his morning WDEV broadcast.  Thanksgiving is still more than a week away, but I guess he likes what he’s seeing in the modeling.  He mentioned the potential for some Lake-effect involvement – they’re definitely starting to talk about it in the Upstate NY thread.

 

They’re starting to talk about snow potential in the BTV NWS forecast discussion as well:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

712 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Boiling this down, Saturday night into Sunday, expect precipitation to affect the North Country as rain with above freezing temperatures at 925mb to the surface through Sunday. Colder air will filter in Sunday night into Monday with continued precipitation as the negatively tilted 500mb trough continues to affect the region. Snow is expected to start in the higher terrain around sunset, lowering to about 1000ft by midnight under strong cold air advection as the mid level trough axis shifts northeast, putting the North Country in NW flow. According to GFS PWATs, bulk of moisture will be exiting Monday- Monday Night. Therefore, expect drier valleys with upslope snow in NW flow affecting the higher terrain and western slopes. This far out, uncertainty is high in exact details.

 

In any event, I’m happy the next several days appear to hold some nice potential to continue fall cleanup at the house because the forecast is starting to look a lot messier as we head into next week.

 

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Yea JSpin, next 2 weeks through Thanksgiving look somewhat interesting.   At least we will have stuff to track. 12Z GFS is quite snowy through and past Turkey Day, obviously much could change, but looks active.

 

Checking on the latest runs, 06Z GFS has the snow coming into VT very early on Sunday, while the latest ECMWF run has the cold air arriving later, and there doesn’t seem to be nearly as much moisture in VT.  That GFS track does look good for some upslope snow, but we’ll have to see where this settles out.  In any event, there appear to be more chances in the queue anyway.  Thoughts from the BTV AFD:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 401 AM EST Wednesday...More active period as deep negatively tilted 500mb trough approaches from the Great Lakes region. 00Z GFS and ECMWF continue to differ with regard to track and evolution of this feature. GFS brings in precip and colder air faster, showing the 500mb trough developing a closed low and swinging across the region by Sunday morning. Also has associated surface low develop around southern New England and track northward towards the St Lawrence River delta by Sunday night. ECMWF has 500mb closed low that develops Saturday night/Sunday morning similar to track in 12Z run. At this time, would favor more delayed onset of precip and slower progression of cold air into the North Country based on ECWMF consistency and with negatively tilted trough becoming closed low at 500mb and the surface expect slower progression. Have therefore held likely POPs til Sunday and Sunday night. Greater uncertainty with regard to colder air and, therefore, rain transitioning to snow. This will be highly dependent on track of low. GFS continues to bring in strong CAA on Sunday, resulting in snow showers in the high terrain as early as Sunday late morning, then the valleys Sunday night. ECMWF delays colder air til Monday night.

We will continue to be under the influence of the large 500mb trough through the rest of the period with NW flow keeping snow showers in the forecast, especially over the higher terrain.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Checking on the latest runs, 06Z GFS has the snow coming into VT very early on Sunday, while the latest ECMWF run has the cold air arriving later, and there doesn’t seem to be nearly as much moisture in VT.  That GFS track does look good for some upslope snow, but we’ll have to see where this settles out.  In any event, there appear to be more chances in the queue anyway.  Thoughts from the BTV AFD:

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 401 AM EST Wednesday...More active period as deep negatively tilted 500mb trough approaches from the Great Lakes region. 00Z GFS and ECMWF continue to differ with regard to track and evolution of this feature. GFS brings in precip and colder air faster, showing the 500mb trough developing a closed low and swinging across the region by Sunday morning. Also has associated surface low develop around southern New England and track northward towards the St Lawrence River delta by Sunday night. ECMWF has 500mb closed low that develops Saturday night/Sunday morning similar to track in 12Z run. At this time, would favor more delayed onset of precip and slower progression of cold air into the North Country based on ECWMF consistency and with negatively tilted trough becoming closed low at 500mb and the surface expect slower progression. Have therefore held likely POPs til Sunday and Sunday night. Greater uncertainty with regard to colder air and, therefore, rain transitioning to snow. This will be highly dependent on track of low. GFS continues to bring in strong CAA on Sunday, resulting in snow showers in the high terrain as early as Sunday late morning, then the valleys Sunday night. ECMWF delays colder air til Monday night.

We will continue to be under the influence of the large 500mb trough through the rest of the period with NW flow keeping snow showers in the forecast, especially over the higher terrain.

Yeah--it appears you have a good spell coming up.  Post pictures for us getting nothing but rain!

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J.Spin

J.Spin

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah--it appears you have a good spell coming up.  Post pictures for us getting nothing but rain!

 

As long as the mountains get at least a little something with respect to accumulation I’ll be making an effort to get up there for a tour and some photos.  We’ll have to see how it plays out, but generally it would just take a few inches (with at least some decent density) to bring some of Bolton’s low-angle options in play.  The terrain at the main base all starts above 2,000’, so that can help if temperatures or other factors are marginal.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

As long as the mountains get at least a little something with respect to accumulation I’ll be making an effort to get up there for a tour and some photos.  We’ll have to see how it plays out, but generally it would just take a few inches (with at least some decent density) to bring some of Bolton’s low-angle options in play.  The terrain at the main base all starts above 2,000’, so that can help if temperatures or other factors are marginal.

As somebody who has "grass skis" I concur that it just takes a "few inches" ....

Sunday's set-up looks pretty similar to what we saw in late October...Not quite as intense but certainly in the same ballpark.  Should  be at least interesting to watch how this 2.5 week high pressure breaks down and what comes in its wake. 

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

Anyone here have any experience with solar?  I'm having it installed tomorrow.  I decided to lease from Solar City.  My monthly lease payment is less than my average power bill and in sunnier months when I generate more than I use, it gets sold back to Green Mountain Power and I build up credits which I use to offset any power that I buy from GMP during less sunny periods.  If I have excess credits, I can sell them or donate them to any other GMP customer.  I'm pretty hopeful but am keeping my expectations tempered.  There is a guaranteed minimum amount of power my system should provide and Solar City will reimburse if the system does not deliver.  My first goal is to have it be a wash in terms of net costs, anything else is pure gravy.

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