J.Spin Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 15 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said: Sunny and U50s, awesome day today. Although I wouldn't mind an inch or two here and there to get to my 5" NOV average. There have been a few pretty snowy NOVs in VT, although it seems the big totals don't happen too often. . 2002 the most recent it seems and a few others like 71 and 72. Nov 1971 was pretty much a 10 day siege at the end of the month. Maybe a miracle pattern flip to end the month I certainly don’t consider November cold and snow wasted at all in NNE - on average in November, the permanent winter snowpack actually starts in the mountains (and even in the mountain valleys up here about half the time according to my data), so November cold is certainly appreciated. December can be so potent with snow that it can quickly make up for any November shortfalls, but unfortunately there’s not total independence between the months – if the pattern through November is warm and/or dry, it’s not as if it will flip right on the first of December. Roger Hill has been pretty clear in his most recent WDEV broadcasts about not seeing any notable snow in the near future, and it’s not so much that right now (early November) matters too much, but the fact that terms like “miracle pattern flip” are being used for the latter part of the month gives one a good idea of what people are thinking with respect to the next few weeks. We can easily pull snow out of a variety of patterns up here, but from my perspective as an NVT skier, if we go right through November and into December without getting into some decent periods of snow/cold, the ski season has already taken a hit. It means that the natural snow season is starting out slower than average, and even if one is just looking to get out on the manmade trails, there’s going to be less terrain available. Some folks would disagree and give top marks to a season like 2006-2007, where things didn’t get going until the second half, but I consider the second half of the season essentially a given. There’s always going to be some sort of snowpack by the time you get to February. It’s the early months that can really suffer if the snow and cold don’t come; you can carry extra snowpack from the first half of winter into a lackluster second half, but for some reason the reverse just doesn’t seem to work. Technically we’ve already had a fantastic week of skiing in October that would pass for great even in any November, so we’re sort of covered there, it’s just that a similar period in November would have a better chance of bringing more of the natural base right into the front end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 Checking in on the latest BTV AFD, it looks like the cold and snow are still on track to come into the area with the cold front tomorrow into Saturday. I suspect that the resorts that are so inclined will have the snow guns cranking out the white stuff during the period. Beyond this shot it looks like another week or so before any additional natural snow chances would be in the area. Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 645 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2016 .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 345 AM EST Thursday...On Friday light rain showers continue and change to snow showers as colder air works into the region behind departing surface cold front. Northwest flow will help to enhance some of the upslope effects, though precipitation should shut down pretty quickly by about 18z. We may have a quick inch of snowfall in the mountains above 2500 feet. Cold air will remain in place across the region and a surface ridge of high pressure builds for Friday night and Saturday bringing dry weather and cool temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 12 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Checking in on the latest BTV AFD, it looks like the cold and snow are still on track to come into the area with the cold front tomorrow into Saturday. I suspect that the resorts that are so inclined will have the snow guns cranking out the white stuff during the period. Beyond this shot it looks like another week or so before any additional natural snow chances would be in the area. Probably a safe bet...having a good run last night into this morning. Bottomed out at 20F at the summit (still 21F) and 26F at the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Probably a safe bet...having a good run last night into this morning. Bottomed out at 20F at the summit (still 21F) and 26F at the base. Cool, that’s great to see. I hadn’t checked as to whether this was just one of those inversion mornings with warmer weather up high, but obviously the mountains were nice and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 10, 2016 Share Posted November 10, 2016 To get an idea of where snowfall stands with respect to average at our site throughout the season, I’ve been using my data to create cumulative snowfall totals for each day of each season, and then I run the statistics on those. It takes some time to go from my daily observations into the daily cumulative format, so I’ve sort of filled in days along the way as the occasions arose to check on a season’s snowfall status. I hadn’t really taken the time to fill out the very early season (October/November) data, since those numbers are relatively small, quite variable, and not all that important. But, I’ve got a decade’s worth of data now to start smoothing things out, and with the way this season’s October snows fell right in line near the averages, I figured I would finish off those numbers and see what they indicated. The cumulative snowfall numbers begin to trickle out of the noise and hit a tenth of an inch around mid-October, and increase at roughly a tenth of an inch per day through the end of the month. They actually sort of stagnate for the first third of November, increasing by only 0.3” during that whole period, and then move up to ~0.2” per day for the middle third of the month. Not surprisingly, the final third of the month shows a dramatic jump in daily snowfall, with an average of ~0.75” per day. Relatively speaking, that’s actually a pretty impressive daily snowfall rate because it isn’t all that different from December’s daily rate (especially with the way December snowfall has been slow around here in recent years). Anyway, taking a snapshot after the first third of November, things are quite typical and we’re just 0.1” ahead of average snowfall for the date. I suspect we’ll probably fall behind soon based on the upcoming forecast, but it also doesn’t take much to jump forward at this part of the season. November data plot below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 Crazy temperature profile overnight. Started at 30, spiked to 40, now on the way back down with moderate snow EDIT: Snow ended pretty quickly, but temps and DP dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 GFS certainly puts the "NO" in November in terms of snow. Not looking like we're in for anything wintry for the next week+. Actually looks sorta lovely in all truth. Just done with lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 Pretty wintery scene right now. Moderate snow, ground getting white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 2 minutes ago, alex said: Pretty wintery scene right now. Moderate snow, ground getting white lol nice snow shower here in town right now. I find you and I seem to see very similar weather, haha. I come in to post we are over to snow and sure enough you've got some too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 Little upslope response behind the front to put some mood flakes in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: lol nice snow shower here in town right now. I find you and I seem to see very similar weather, haha. I come in to post we are over to snow and sure enough you've got some too. Yeah surprisingly so. I though the orientation of the range was such that we needed different wind direction for upslope, but it seems fairly similar overall. Seems to have stopped now, just a few occasional flakes - but man it's getting cold. 34/28 and windy. Can't wait for real winter though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Little upslope response behind the front to put some mood flakes in the air. I didn’t even think to look until I saw you guys chatting about the snow, but I check the web cam and there were indeed flakes flying with even a bit of transient whitening on the deck. The temperatures must be getting down there if the snow’s starting to accumulate at the low rates I saw on the cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 It's very pellet-y. At times it's almost like hail. Seems to be getting more flaky now, but the intensity varies rapidly from a few flakes to pounding pellets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 29 minutes ago, alex said: It's very pellet-y. At times it's almost like hail. Seems to be getting more flaky now, but the intensity varies rapidly from a few flakes to pounding pellets Same here...when it's light it's flakes. The cores of 30-35dbz on composite radar are just pounding graupel. But that's when the best minor accums hit. Easy to get a tenth of an inch in those graupel squalls....which then melt down as the squall moves on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 43F -SHSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 It is bitter out there. I think my PWS is stuck or something. Says 33 and the driveway is a sheet of ice, and there are icicles on the pine tree under the garage roofline. Just some light flurries, but it feels very wintery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 41 minutes ago, alex said: It is bitter out there. I think my PWS is stuck or something. Says 33 and the driveway is a sheet of ice, and there are icicles on the pine tree under the garage roofline. Just some light flurries, but it feels very wintery 33F sounds right. Everyone is well mixed so it should be your typical temp drop with height and latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 Hmm... but at 33F I have a frozen driveway, icicles on trees, and a bucket of water that's frozen over. Doesn't that defy laws of physics, considering there's no radiational cooling going on right now? 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: 33F sounds right. Everyone is well mixed so it should be your typical temp drop with height and latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 17 hours ago, alex said: Hmm... but at 33F I have a frozen driveway, icicles on trees, and a bucket of water that's frozen over. Doesn't that defy laws of physics, considering there's no radiational cooling going on right now? Eh...everyone around you was at the same temp...32-33. Even with wind the sfc is reradiating heat out to space on a clear night. The difference is 2m stays mixed with the wind so the cold doesn't conductively build up high enough. So yeah...your driveway can be icy at 33F with clear skies and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 26 minutes ago, dendrite said: Eh...everyone around you was at the same temp...32-33. Even with wind the sfc is reradiating heat out to space on a clear night. The difference is 2m stays mixed with the wind so the cold doesn't conductively build up high enough. So yeah...your driveway can be icy at 33F with clear skies and wind. Plus a little evapo cooling with that wind over the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Also it's why you get frost at temps at or below 37ish, because the surface can be a lot colder than 2 m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Plus a little evapo cooling with that wind over the moisture. Makes sense. Thank you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 It's impressive that with a high of almost 40 there are still areas of snow from yesterday's dusting on my driveway and in shady spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 56.6 f for the high. Felt good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 17 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 56.6 f for the high. Felt good Got to 53.7 here--it felt like an early April spring-teaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 I just realized I wrote the post the other day but never posted it. Also I can now add that I took the drone up for a "super moon" picture. I kind of think the whole super moon thing is overblown. Can anyone tell the difference? It the digital age of photo manipulation most of the shots on the internet with these huge moon pictures are either taken with a telephoto lens or altered. Either way my drone shot is below. That is looking east over my house. The lake on the left is Squam and you are looking at the Ossipee Range further right. If I was higher Lake Winnapeasakee Would be in the picture middle right. Last night I made the first nightime time lapse with my cam. I have never done that. We rarely see nightime videos. Atmosphere is more stable I guess with orographic influences perhaps more pronounced. NW wind blowing the length of Newfound Lake seems to create a near permanent cloud downwind that lasted for hours. Skies finally clear and the moon sets. Fun to watch the planets move across the sky. I will have to try one on a clear moonless night to see if I can capture more stars. https://video.nest.com/clip/38d4d1d26b3b461987aeb4a0b4c74603.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 I just checked my long term Accuweather forecast for Norwich. They have us getting about 6 inches between January 13 and 14. Surprised there is no thread yet: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/norwich-vt/05055/daily-weather-forecast/2184867?day=63 On the sad note that is the only day of heavy snow that shows up for here on that sad 90 day forecast. May as well lock it in and cancel winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 19 minutes ago, klw said: I just checked my long term Accuweather forecast for Norwich. They have us getting about 6 inches between January 13 and 14. Surprised there is no thread yet: http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/norwich-vt/05055/daily-weather-forecast/2184867?day=63 On the sad note that is the only day of heavy snow that shows up for here on that sad 90 day forecast. May as well lock it in and cancel winter. Looks like a long duration event for PWM, like 9.5" followed by wintry mix and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: I just realized I wrote the post the other day but never posted it. Also I can now add that I took the drone up for a "super moon" picture. I kind of think the whole super moon thing is overblown. Can anyone tell the difference? It the digital age of photo manipulation most of the shots on the internet with these huge moon pictures are either taken with a telephoto lens or altered. Either way my drone shot is below. That is looking east over my house. The lake on the left is Squam and you are looking at the Ossipee Range further right. If I was higher Lake Winnapeasakee Would be in the picture middle right. Last night I made the first nightime time lapse with my cam. I have never done that. We rarely see nightime videos. Atmosphere is more stable I guess with orographic influences perhaps more pronounced. NW wind blowing the length of Newfound Lake seems to create a near permanent cloud downwind that lasted for hours. Skies finally clear and the moon sets. Fun to watch the planets move across the sky. I will have to try one on a clear moonless night to see if I can capture more stars. https://video.nest.com/clip/38d4d1d26b3b461987aeb4a0b4c74603.mp4 Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Spring skiing in November at Bretton Woods today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.