NNE Fall Thread

[eekuasepinniW]

Gusted to 43mph

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[OceanStWx]

7 hours ago, alex said:

Yes definitely does. As a past season skier at Wildcat, they don't do well in upslope compared to this side - they get an inch or two when BW gets 4-5. But this wasn't really upslope I don't think so I'd expect less shadowing

It was upslope for the most part. VT and NY got in on some deformation, but it really transitioned to almost pure upslope by the time it cooled off enough in NH.

[alex]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

It was upslope for the most part. VT and NY got in on some deformation, but it really transitioned to almost pure upslope by the time it cooled off enough in NH.

Ah, thank you for that. It happened in the middle of the night for the most part so I wasn't up to watch the radar... all I know is I went to sleep in the fall and woke up in winter.

[OceanStWx]

16 minutes ago, alex said:

Ah, thank you for that. It happened in the middle of the night for the most part so I wasn't up to watch the radar... all I know is I went to sleep in the fall and woke up in winter.

I'm going to be looking forward to some snowfall obs in your area this winter. You know assuming it snows in the mountains again.

[wxeyeNH]

Ocean, with Alex's new cam, snow stake and deck railings you will be able to get a really good idea what it's doing up at elevation in the Whites.  The cam has the metal bird hanger in view too so I would assume you will be able to tell if freezing rain is happening.  

[dryslot]

Low of 26.6°F this am, Hvy hvy frost/freeze

[eyewall]

Powder did you work a mid shift at the NWS last night?

Thermal profiles show both 925mb and 850mb temps below 0c...with
850mb temps near -10c by 00z Weds...supporting mostly
snow...except the valleys and near the warmer Lake. Speaking of
Lake Champlain...some enhanced precipitation is possible on the
east side of the lake with moderate instability created between
the air/water temp difference...especially on Tuesday.
Also...noted with boundary layer heating and cold air
aloft...lapse rates steepen on Tuesday afternoon...supporting some
convective elements with potential graupel in the valley. Thinking
any snow accumulation below 1000 feet will be difficult during the
daytime...but some minor accumulation above 1000 feet between a
dusting to several inches is likely across the northern dacks and
mountains of central/northern VT. Its never too early to start
building the snow pack. Thermal profiles support about a 20 degree
difference between lower/mid 20s mountains summits to lower/mid
40s valleys on both Tuesday and Weds...with lows mainly upper
teens to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM EDT Monday...Active pattern continues for days 4
thru 7 with additional chances for rain and snow on Thursday into
Friday and another system next weekend. Overall...given the
progressive west to northwest flow aloft...temps will stay below
normal thru the period with additional chances to increase snow
pack across the mountains...especially Thursday Afternoon.

 

[powderfreak]

You missed the best part...the Mansfield picnic table reference as a shout out to this forum. Second time I've seen a BTV AFD mention the picnic tables.

Meanwhile...cold air remains locked east of the greens and across the northeast kingdom with a longer duration of snow...with several inches of wet snow accumulation possible Thursday afternoon/evening...before changing over to rain. Mountain thermal profiles are tricky as progged 850mb temps stay near 0c...but warm nose around 5000 feet associated with southerly jet...supports some freezing rain possible near the summits of the dacks and greens on Thursday Night. It shall be interesting to see what the picnic table on Mansfield receives.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Low of 26.6°F this am, Hvy hvy frost/freeze

Still haven't gotten below 35.6F. In fact, last year we hit 25.6 on the 18th and the next morning was sub-32 as well. Three more mornings through end of Oct were <32, making 5 total. Wonder if we'll go to end of this month w/out freezing. Lava rock doing its thing.

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Still haven't gotten below 35.6F. In fact, last year we hit 25.6 on the 18th and the next morning was sub-32 as well. Three more mornings through end of Oct were <32, making 5 total. Wonder if we'll go to end of this month w/out freezing. Lava rock doing its thing.

That's nuts

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Still haven't gotten below 35.6F. In fact, last year we hit 25.6 on the 18th and the next morning was sub-32 as well. Three more mornings through end of Oct were <32, making 5 total. Wonder if we'll go to end of this month w/out freezing. Lava rock doing its thing.

You should do it Thu AM.

[backedgeapproaching]

Some totals and depth.

 

 

[eyewall]

24 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Some totals and depth.

 

 

Where did the 0.67 come from? LOL

[eyewall]

Imagine if the ground temps were not so warm

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Imagine if the ground temps were not so warm

Turn that 6" into 9" ;).

I was thinking at my house with a January frozen ground I probably could've had 3" even in the exact same thermal profile.  Even snowing for 6 hours just struggled to get that first layer down on the warm/wet grass.

But is it the snowing at 34F that hurt or the fact that the ground is like 55F and soggy with rain?  Neither are good for accums haha.

[eyewall]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Turn that 6" into 9" ;).

I was thinking at my house with a January frozen ground I probably could've had 3" even in the exact same thermal profile.  Even snowing for 6 hours just struggled to get that first layer down on the warm/wet grass.

Yes that is definitely true at the lower end of the snow level especially. I was amazed how quickly accums started when I drove up the Access Road. I knew then it was a solid hit up above. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Turn that 6" into 9" ;).

I was thinking at my house with a January frozen ground I probably could've had 3" even in the exact same thermal profile.  Even snowing for 6 hours just struggled to get that first layer down on the warm/wet grass.

But is it the snowing at 34F that hurt or the fact that the ground is like 55F and soggy with rain?  Neither are good for accums haha.

I would bet the 34F hurts more than the warm ground. You cool that to 30-31F and you probably freeze your soggy grass or at least cool the blades enough to where the warm soil underneath becomes basically negligible. You def would have been more successful if the ground was frozen and had snow at 34F, but the temp itself was probably the bigger inhibitor. Esp in a near-isothermal environment like that. The flakes weren't cold to begin with. It's not like you were getting a 34F snow where literally 1000 feet up the temp was like 28F and at 3000 feet it was 21F.

[powderfreak]

Just now, eyewall said:

Yes that is definitely true at the lower end of the snow level especially. I was amazed how quickly accums started when I drove up the Access Road. I knew then it was a solid hit up above. 

Yeah once you get to 32F it doesn't matter...when I woke up and saw all the 1500ft sites at even like 31.9F I knew it was all good.

We really don't need to hash it out again (haha), it really only comes into play in marginal situations that already may have issues with accumulations to begin with.

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I would bet the 34F hurts more than the warm ground. You cool that to 30-31F and you probably freeze your soggy grass or at least cool the blades enough to where the warm soil underneath becomes basically negligible. You def would have been more successful if the ground was frozen and had snow at 34F, but the temp itself was probably the bigger inhibitor. Esp in a near-isothermal environment like that. The flakes weren't cold to begin with. It's not like you were getting a 34F snow where literally 1000 feet up the temp was like 28F and at 3000 feet it was 21F.

The skin temp is what matters anyways...not a 6" deep reading of 50F.

[J.Spin]

Event totals: 0.6” Snow/2.08” L.E.

 

We picked up a final couple of hundredths of liquid yesterday to end out this recent storm.  Snow was falling when we left in the morning, but it was light enough that I wasn’t seeing accumulation with the way the temperatures had bumped up a bit since the overnight.  So, the final totals I recorded are above.  Based on my observations, it looks like 0.41” of the storm fell as snow at our location, with the remaining 1.67 falling as liquid.  That 0.41” is obviously enough to put down more snow than we picked up, but when the temperatures are marginal like they were, there’s a lot of melting and compaction.  In any event, over two inches of liquid represents the largest storm I’ve recorded in a while, so let’s hope we can keep up the moisture as we head into the colder months.

 

It doesn’t look like the mountain snow is going to go anywhere to soon, we’ve got snow in our point forecast, and that Mansfield forecast looks pretty cold and snowy through the week:

 

 

We headed down to Gillette Stadium for a New England Revolution match yesterday, and we went from heavy clouds and light snow in the air with white ground, to beautiful sun and fall-like temperatures; it was like going right from winter back to fall and really showed some of that regional dichotomy in climate.

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, dryslot said:

Low of 26.6°F this am, Hvy hvy frost/freeze

At 7 this morning, LEW was reporting the lowest non-mountain temp in New England, at least among locations found on the "observations" link from GYX.  It was 35+ at my place with no dew, which tells me that wind and clouds made the temp difference.  Takes an odd set of circumstances for your minimum to be about 10F cooler than mine.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, eyewall said:

Imagine if the ground temps were not so warm

Imagine having a few drinks and sitting at that table...

[dryslot]

47 minutes ago, tamarack said:

At 7 this morning, LEW was reporting the lowest non-mountain temp in New England, at least among locations found on the "observations" link from GYX.  It was 35+ at my place with no dew, which tells me that wind and clouds made the temp difference.  Takes an odd set of circumstances for your minimum to be about 10F cooler than mine.

There are times that we get some cold air drainage down from the north into here that i can match the temps or may be slightly below them then IZG, Its rather odd it seems being here on the coastal plain that it happens but i would like to know what  occurrence that actually creates that, Seems like the winds went calm overnight, But we down slope on anything out of the NW and torch on anything out of the south typically.

 

000
ASUS41 KGYX 241105
RWRGYX
WEATHER ROUNDUP FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

MEZ002-005-006-010-012-015-018-020-021-024-026-027-029-241200-
MAINE

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
PORTLAND       PTCLDY    41  33  73 SW8       29.71S
SANFORD        CLEAR     32  30  92 S3        29.73R
BAR HARBOR     CLEAR     42  32  67 SW6       29.66
WISCASSET      CLEAR     35  31  85 CALM      29.70S
ROCKLAND       PTCLDY    41  34  76 W6        29.69R
FRYEBURG       PTCLDY    41  31  67 CALM      29.69S
LEWISTONAUBURN CLEAR     29  28  96 N3        29.69R
AUGUSTA        CLEAR     37  30  75 SW3       29.68R
WATERVILLE     MOCLDY    40  30  67 S3        29.64S
BANGOR         PTCLDY    41  31  67 SW7       29.64S
GREENVILLE       N/A     36  28  73 MISG      29.56S
MILLINOCKET    CLOUDY    42  30  62 W10G20    29.60R
HOULTON        CLOUDY    41  29  62 W14G20    29.54R
PRESQUE ISLE   LGT RAIN  38  31  76 W6        29.51R
FRENCHVILLE    MOCLDY    33  24  69 W7        29.44R
CARIBOU        MOCLDY    36  29  75 W12       29.48R
$$

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The skin temp is what matters anyways...not a 6" deep reading of 50F.

Agree. But time and time again the warm ground argument will be vomited in our direction until we puke.

[powderfreak]

Snowing lightly at the office now.

A decent amount of the snow melted around this elevation but mostly you just see the wind blown areas cleared.

[OceanStWx]

4 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Some totals and depth.

I'm actually angry about all those northern VT obs and the hole that we have in northern NH.

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

There are times that we get some cold air drainage down from the north into here that i can match the temps or may be slightly below them then IZG, Its rather odd it seems being here on the coastal plain that it happens but i would like to know what  occurrence that actually creates that, Seems like the winds went calm overnight, But we down slope on anything out of the NW and torch on anything out of the south typically.

29 was not in the forecast last night, I'll tell you that much.

Looking at topography, that light N wind looks pretty favorable for the airport to get drainage through Lake Auburn and Taylor Pond and couple with any drainage down the Little Androscoggin. I mean clearly you clean up on NNE or NE flow when it comes to cold. And sometimes those light nocturnal katabatic winds can hint at when and where your radiational cooling is.

Will will remember when Game Farm Road went light SE at night, it was going to radiate. That's because you were getting drainage flow off the East Hill area and down the Cascadilla Creek valley.

[OceanStWx]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snowing lightly at the office now.

A decent amount of the snow melted around this elevation but mostly you just see the wind blown areas cleared.

Melting from below probably 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Agree. But time and time again the warm ground argument will be vomited in our direction until we puke.

I think we come at it from hearing it as an excuse why our coworkers haven't put snow accumulations in the forecast too. Not necessarily for why a weenie will or will not have more snow IMBY. 

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

29 was not in the forecast last night, I'll tell you that much.

Looking at topography, that light N wind looks pretty favorable for the airport to get drainage through Lake Auburn and Taylor Pond and couple with any drainage down the Little Androscoggin. I mean clearly you clean up on NNE or NE flow when it comes to cold. And sometimes those light nocturnal katabatic winds can hint at when and where your radiational cooling is.

Will will remember when Game Farm Road went light SE at night, it was going to radiate. That's because you were getting drainage flow off the East Hill area and down the Cascadilla Creek valley.

 

 I end up a little cooler sitting down here in the hollow below the No Name Pond basin on the east side to an ele 210', Within a mile of Montello hill to here, You can always find a +/- 3°F difference on any given night

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I end up a little cooler sitting down here in the hollow below the No Name Pond basin on the east side to an ele 210'

Oh god, that's like Chez Ekster. Basically sitting on an ancient dried up lake bed. Real weenie spot for your local area.