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NNE Fall Thread


dryslot

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I see that PF posted the latest BTV AFD in the thread for the storm, there was one part I posted below where a bit of fall flair was noted:

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 315 PM EDT Friday...After a prolonged warmer than normal period through the summer and into the first 20 days of October...a prolonged period of BELOW normal temperatures are in store for the

north country...Fall is here!

 

And I grabbed a copy of the latest snowfall projections map – the considerations are certainly covered well in the BTV AFD, but projected totals have definitely come back up a bit since this morning:

 

21OCT16B.jpg

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14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Color me skeptical but I don't see MVL getting 2.4" of rainfall through 12z tomorrow morning.  This is the 18 hour prog off the 18z GFS.

gfs_tprecip_neng_4.png

Couple stations just north of PWM in the 0.2" color reported more than 5" this morning, and I think that map busted low for every square mile in Maine.  Mets were saying it would be a challenge forecasting where the plume would bloom.  (And there were some sharp cutoffs - saw 2.79" less than 15 miles from 0.66" [Dresden and Newcastle, respectively].)

The 2.19" I had in 10 hours ending at 7 this morning is more than fell in the previous 60 days.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'd be nice if you could get nearly the same exact view from your drone at different points in the season and stitch those together panoramic style. 

Yeah I was thinking of attempting that. 

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It'd be nice if you could get nearly the same exact view from your drone at different points in the season and stitch those together panoramic style. 

I was thinking the same thing.  Like part of the Spine going from winter merging into spring into summer etc.  Make a panorama. Would have to be roughly the same time of day and same sky conditions.   It would definitely sell in stores.

Meanwhile I'm up to about .9" for the total event.  About .22" of that was from the first batch 2 days ago.  

Nice upslope potential.  lol...where I live snowshowers always seem to stop about 25 miles NW of me.  Black dot me casa!

Untitled.png.4aceb509e01db0ea65ec3b179eb85acd.jpg

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I wasn’t really expecting to need the snow measurement equipment for this event down here at 500’, but the latest BTV NWS forecast discussion mentions the possibility of snow below 1,000’, so I’m getting things prepped.  Tonight’s forecast low around here is right around the freezing mark.  Our point forecast has multiple panels with flakes, and mentions of snow out to the end of the week, so some attention will definitely be warranted.  There’s a winter weather advisory up across the lake as was mentioned in the storm thread, and the BTV NWS projected accumulations map has definitely shown a substantial bump up from yesterday.  Some maps and discussion are below:

 

22OCT16A.jpg

 

22OCT16B.jpg

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

326 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of 252 PM EDT Saturday...Main concerns this forecast period are snow levels tonight, and gusty winds to 40 mph late tonight through Sunday as strong low pressure tracks to our east across Maine into ern Quebec. Winter Wx Advisory continues nrn Adirondacks thru 15Z Sunday.

 

985mb surface cyclone along the mid-coast region of Maine will continue to track nwd while deepening, reaching the St. Lawrence Seaway by sunrise Sunday. Deep mid-upr level trough has acquired negative tilt, extending from southeastern Ontario across w-central NY into PA/NJ. As the upper trough pivots newd this evening, will continue to see dynamic cooling and advection of colder 925-850mb temps from SW-NE into nrn NY, and eventually across VT. 850mb temps near 0C at 19Z across the nrn Adirondacks will cool to near -3C to -4C by 06Z tonight, allowing snow levels to continue to fall from near 1500-2000` to below 1000` later tonight. Cooling thermal profiles already yielding changeover to snow at Tupper Lake (per NY Mesonet) and SLK ASOS, with 19Z temp at 33F. Strong upper divergence in left front quad of upper jet and deformation axis will continue to produce precipitation across nrn NY through the overnight hrs. Also, WNW to NW low-level flow will increase, producing more of an orographic character to the snowfall across NRN NY late this evening, and across VT after midnight. Have continued winter weather advisory for nrn Adirondacks, for 3-5" of snowfall, highest at elevations near 2000` and higher. Across higher elevations of VT, also anticipate a change to snow as colder thermal profiles develop after 00Z. May even see some wet snowflakes in the Champlain Valley after 06Z and through daybreak. Temps won`t support accumulation in the Champlain Valley (lows 36-39F), but could see a coating to an inch across most cities and towns central/ern VT, and then upwards of 6-8" for the highest summits, especially Jay Peak to Mt. Mansfield, before activity ends mid-day Sunday across far nrn VT. Main impact will be some slippery wintry travel due to wet/slushy accumulation on roadways after sunset, especially across the higher passes of NY/VT. With strong elevational dependence to the snowfall, travelers may also see large variations in road conditions over short distances, so that will be something to watch for.

 

Strong gradient flow on backside of departing low pressure will yield increasingly windy conditions late tonight and through the daylight hrs Sunday. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph, with gusts locally to 35-40mph are expected. Higher elevation areas with wet snow accumulation may see some isold power outages owing to snowfall and developing moderately strong winds.

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9 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Just saw a patch of blue sky here in Augusta. Still warm though. 65f

 

It’s definitely not warm here right now, I was just out working on the snow measurement equipment and it’s raw – pouring rain and temperatures dropping into the 30s F.  It’s certainly a change from the past few weeks and feels like one of those October storms that brings snow… which it’s doing already per the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam.

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