J.Spin Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Well, it’s nice to see snow talk working its way into the BTV NWS forecast discussion – it looks like they’re thinking of flakes as early as Saturday, which isn’t all that far away at this point: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 502 AM EDT Tuesday... Mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted late Friday as it interacts with coastal low followed by rapid strengthening of the surface low come Saturday morning. As the surface low moves east into Maine, cold air filters in on NW flow. 540 thickness line moves into the area, indicating possibility for some snow showers Saturday morning, mainly in the higher elevations. Rain continues with possible breaks as dry slot may develop on Saturday. The low becomes closed and stacked during the day, with several pieces of vorticity embedded in cyclonic flow keeping a chance for precipitation through at least Sunday. Storm total QPF may vary widely based on where deformation zone develops Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 5 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Well, it’s nice to see snow talk working its way into the BTV NWS forecast discussion – it looks like they’re thinking of flakes as early as Saturday, which isn’t all that far away at this point: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 502 AM EDT Tuesday... Mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted late Friday as it interacts with coastal low followed by rapid strengthening of the surface low come Saturday morning. As the surface low moves east into Maine, cold air filters in on NW flow. 540 thickness line moves into the area, indicating possibility for some snow showers Saturday morning, mainly in the higher elevations. Rain continues with possible breaks as dry slot may develop on Saturday. The low becomes closed and stacked during the day, with several pieces of vorticity embedded in cyclonic flow keeping a chance for precipitation through at least Sunday. Storm total QPF may vary widely based on where deformation zone develops Friday. It sure is! Time for my usual drive up to Bolton to catch the first snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 I don't doubt that there will be some flakes flying Saturday afternoon. Just question whether there will be anything sticking given that the ground is going to be very warm and very saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 I'm not home, but looks like a 20-25F temp spread less than 10 miles apart. Low 80s in manchester and 50s just up the hill on the other side of the greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 83F here in Orwell. We're under a Severe Ladybug Warning, no doubt, as the density level of 50/screen door panel has been achieved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 50 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said: 83F here in Orwell. We're under a Severe Ladybug Warning, no doubt, as the density level of 50/screen door panel has been achieved. 62° here in Capital City. Had to run home at lunch and the car thermo read 57° for a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 30 minutes ago, mreaves said: 62° here in Capital City. Had to run home at lunch and the car thermo read 57° for a little bit. 49F here. Wood burning stove going all day with the dark dreary skies. Ladybugs will be out in full force tomorrow. They know cold weather is coming and time to swarm and find those warm places to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Holy crap Euro warning snow in NVt NNH NMaine elevations day 4/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy crap Euro warning snow in NVt NNH NMaine elevations day 4/5 Always interesting when a low moves up to the NE of us this time of year. I think some accums are possible at significant elevations. First picnic table topper possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 The euro is definitely weenie upslope. That's sweet looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 49 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Always interesting when a low moves up to the NE of us this time of year. I think some accums are possible at significant elevations. First picnic table topper possibly. 974 in da spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 BTV snow discussion: Snow levels start near summit levels on Friday Night...but as 850mb temps drops below 0c by 06z Saturday and near 2000 feet by 12z Saturday...expect snow levels near 2000 feet by 12z Saturday. These temps profiles support accumulating snow with several inches likely above 2000 feet by 15z Saturday. Favorable upslope winds and moisture continue on Saturday into Sunday with progged 850mb and 925mb temps near 0C...supporting additional accumulating mountain snow. Thinking a few wet snow flakes are possible in the valley floor on Saturday Night...but no accumulation. Given setup and thermal profiles thinking 6 to 10 inches is possible near summits above 3500 feet from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak and over the Northern Dacks...with 3 to 6 inches in midslope areas...and dusting to 3 inches between 1500 and 2000 by Sunday. These early season mountain snow accumulations are always tricky and complex so stay tuned. Unlike earlier potential events this year...this system will have favorable moisture in the snow growth region and better cold air advection on back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 3 hours ago, ApacheTrout said: 83F here in Orwell. We're under a Severe Ladybug Warning, no doubt, as the density level of 50/screen door panel has been achieved. Man, I just got home and the lady bugs are just swarming everywhere...getting in every crack and crevis. Reminds of SE PAwith the stink bugs, man there would be some epic invasions in OCT. Those things are so nasty. Their namesake is true as well, they reek. 2010 I killed at least 500 in my house in PA. I haven't seen any here in VT though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 9 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said: Man, I just got home and the lady bugs are just swarming everywhere...getting in every crack and crevis. Reminds of SE PAwith the stink bugs, man there would be some epic invasions in OCT. Those things are so nasty. Their namesake is true as well, they reek. 2010 I killed at least 500 in my house in PA. I haven't seen any here in VT though. We get the stink bugs and lady bugs for a few warm days every October. The difference this year is that I have a dozen chickens. They pick them off of the foundation and I cringe with every loud crunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 50 minutes ago, dendrite said: We get the stink bugs and lady bugs for a few warm days every October. The difference this year is that I have a dozen chickens. They pick them off of the foundation and I cringe with every loud crunch. Because my house is 220 years old we have had swarms of ladybugs and cluster flies. They get in all the cracks and then in the spring they are buzzing around inside the house. 3 years ago we decided to do something about it. So we use a pest company to come out in Mid September and they spray a insecticide around every window. It takes an hour to dry and they say it is not harmful to humans once dried. Now no more ladybugs or flies in the house. Yesterday they were all over the screens. On each outside window sill there were hundreds dead. So it works very well. Cost $225 per year but I think its worth it if you have lots of cracks for them to get in. Reprieve today with a high of 51F so far. Meanwhile I just noticed Burlington VT was still 78F at 8pm. Must be some type of record for Oct 18th at that time in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Because my house is 220 years old we have had swarms of ladybugs and cluster flies. They get in all the cracks and then in the spring they are buzzing around inside the house. 3 years ago we decided to do something about it. So we use a pest company to come out in Mid September and they spray a insecticide around every window. It takes an hour to dry and they say it is not harmful to humans once dried. Now no more ladybugs or flies in the house. Yesterday they were all over the screens. On each outside window sill there were hundreds dead. So it works very well. Cost $225 per year but I think its worth it if you have lots of cracks for them to get in. Reprieve today with a high of 51F so far. Meanwhile I just noticed Burlington VT was still 78F at 8pm. Must be some type of record for Oct 18th at that time in the evening. Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Drove in and out of the mank coming home from BOS late afternoon today where I had been for work since Sat. Socked in from BOS heading west out Rte 2 then cleared up quickly right past KFIT and sunny skies all the way to I-91. Temp went from 60 to low 70s quickly past KFIT. Sunny up 91 to brattleboro vt where low clouds returned. Some pea soup heading up the eastern slopes of the greens with temps in 50s. Had the heat on in the car and then got over the crest and started heading down the west slopes and temp in car was rocketing up, windows went down and air was really warm. So went from heat on to windows down within 10 miles. Some cool microclimate stuff. I bet many people in the eastern slope mtn towns stuck in the 50s all day had no clue it was 85F 10 -15mins away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 19, 2016 Author Share Posted October 19, 2016 Socked in the mank all day here with drizzle and fog with a high of 52°F, And an over abbundance of stink bugs, The crows are having a picnic with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Meanwhile I just noticed Burlington VT was still 78F at 8pm. Must be some type of record for Oct 18th at that time in the evening. Let's pray that they installed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Wish I lived in NNE, found a wicked cool job posting to be part of the team that creates the ice castles...but Lincoln, NH is far away from Plymouth, MA. The job runs The end of October-March, and my current job starts up again mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 14 hours ago, powderfreak said: BTV snow discussion: Snow levels start near summit levels on Friday Night...but as 850mb temps drops below 0c by 06z Saturday and near 2000 feet by 12z Saturday...expect snow levels near 2000 feet by 12z Saturday. These temps profiles support accumulating snow with several inches likely above 2000 feet by 15z Saturday. Favorable upslope winds and moisture continue on Saturday into Sunday with progged 850mb and 925mb temps near 0C...supporting additional accumulating mountain snow. Thinking a few wet snow flakes are possible in the valley floor on Saturday Night...but no accumulation. Given setup and thermal profiles thinking 6 to 10 inches is possible near summits above 3500 feet from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak and over the Northern Dacks...with 3 to 6 inches in midslope areas...and dusting to 3 inches between 1500 and 2000 by Sunday. These early season mountain snow accumulations are always tricky and complex so stay tuned. Unlike earlier potential events this year...this system will have favorable moisture in the snow growth region and better cold air advection on back side. Interesting how gung-ho the NWS is. I'm not that sold. I'd say 6-10 is a little high. Also, above 3500 feet in the greens is like zero places. the 3-6 calls seems more likely to verify widespread. I'm just worried about the volume of warm air and the timing of the cold air intrusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 17 minutes ago, adk said: Interesting how gung-ho the NWS is. I'm not that sold. I'd say 6-10 is a little high. Also, above 3500 feet in the greens is like zero places. the 3-6 calls seems more likely to verify widespread. I'm just worried about the volume of warm air and the timing of the cold air intrusion. Yeah it is a little rare to get them to forecast snow amounts on the Long Term AFD, especially for uninhabited areas. But I love the passion. No one cares about the weather elsewhere, just focus on the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah it is a little rare to get them to forecast snow amounts on the Long Term AFD, especially for uninhabited areas. But I love the passion. No one cares about the weather elsewhere, just focus on the mountains. Let’s say they know their AFD-reading audience. They’ve got a fairly standard mention of the snow in this morning’s update: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 442 AM EDT Wednesday...As the trough swings through Saturday night into Sunday, W-NW flow filters into the North Country with cooler temperatures and some wrap around precip producing snow showers Saturday night, mainly for areas above 1500 feet. Upslope showers taper off Sunday night before a mid-level shortwave trough brings another chance for showers Monday, followed by building high pressure for the mid-week. There are lots of icons with flakes in the point forecasts though – we’ve even got snow potential indicated at our location down in the valley bottom and I think that’s the first time I’ve seen that this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: Let’s say they know their AFD-reading audience. They’ve got a fairly standard mention of the snow in this morning’s update: .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 442 AM EDT Wednesday...As the trough swings through Saturday night into Sunday, W-NW flow filters into the North Country with cooler temperatures and some wrap around precip producing snow showers Saturday night, mainly for areas above 1500 feet. Upslope showers taper off Sunday night before a mid-level shortwave trough brings another chance for showers Monday, followed by building high pressure for the mid-week. There are lots of icons with flakes in the point forecasts though – we’ve even got snow potential indicated at our location down in the valley bottom and I think that’s the first time I’ve seen that this season. I noticed the discussion was less bullish. Which aligns with the less-good 6z GFS. Frankly till we get within the High-Res NAM range I don't think we have a clue about what this will do. THOUGH, since I have to be a legal conference in Toronto, there is good karma support for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 19 minutes ago, adk said: I noticed the discussion was less bullish. Which aligns with the less-good 6z GFS. Frankly till we get within the High-Res NAM range I don't think we have a clue about what this will do. THOUGH, since I have to be a legal conference in Toronto, there is good karma support for snow. Discussion is less bullish because of the forecaster I think. Yesterday morning's was less bullish and then the afternoon one ramped up again. Wait till Taber takes the afternoon AFD again. Certain ones in the office obviously care more about snow/mountains than others so you can tell which way the discussion goes based on the writer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Last nights GGEM was ridiculous. Perfect placement of stacked low to the NE of us. 6z GFS less robust but still great upslope signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 I think the GGEM was 0 for 100 last winter in snow predictions Maybe a better start to their season this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 12 hours ago, dryslot said: Socked in the mank all day here with drizzle and fog with a high of 52°F, And an over abbundance of stink bugs, The crows are having a picnic with them 51 at my place with 0.02" of condensed mank thru this morning. I spent yesterday in the woods about 75 miles north of home, and the mid 40s with fresh east winds and no sun made things a dite chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Last nights GGEM was ridiculous. Perfect placement of stacked low to the NE of us. 6z GFS less robust but still great upslope signal. I think that snowfall pattern is right. But at 10-1 ratios we're going to get a lot of snow that falls eaten up by warm and wet ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 GFS says: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.