NNE Fall Thread

[Lava Rock]

  On 12/2/2016 at 1:02 PM, alex said:

If this came to fruition and they kept it open in the winter, it would be every weather weenie's dream hotel:

http://www.conwaydailysun.com/newsx/local-news/129063-cog-hut-near-summit-presby-to-appear-before-coos-planning-board-dec-8

 

 

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sorry, I would not support that type of bldg and infrastructure. Leave the land as is. Plenty of huts available, people just have to be willing to hike.

[J.Spin]

I just caught my first glimpse of some of the higher terrain heading through the Winooski Valley, and I can see that the snow level ultimately came down well below 3,000’ – it’s actually down to ~2,000’ and hit the peak of Robbins Mountain.  I can see on the Bolton Valley Web Cam that they definitely got a solid covering at that elevation.  Snow cover was patchy on Butterscotch yesterday, so, it’s easy to see that it’s been covered back up:

 

 

 

[mreaves]

  On 12/2/2016 at 1:02 PM, alex said:

If this came to fruition and they kept it open in the winter, it would be every weather weenie's dream hotel:

http://www.conwaydailysun.com/newsx/local-news/129063-cog-hut-near-summit-presby-to-appear-before-coos-planning-board-dec-8

 

 

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  On 12/2/2016 at 1:11 PM, Lava Rock said:

sorry, I would not support that type of bldg and infrastructure. Leave the land as is. Plenty of huts available, people just have to be willing to hike.

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I tend to agree with you Lava Rock.

[powderfreak]

Coming down steadily still on the mountain...

A solid/dense 6" above 3,000ft and 3-6" between 2,000-3,000ft.

[adk]

  On 12/2/2016 at 1:43 PM, powderfreak said:

Coming down steadily still on the mountain...

A solid/dense 6" above 3,000ft and 3-6" between 2,000-3,000ft.

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How do you know I missed this event: no tracks on that trail. 

[alex]

  On 12/2/2016 at 1:42 PM, mreaves said:

 

I tend to agree with you Lava Rock.

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I get the point... but there's already a train and a road that goes up... the wouldn't be adding anything other than a building for people to sleep in. We're not talking about taking a virgin mountain and putting a road that goes up top and building a walmart (or building a ski resort, for that matter)

[J.Spin]

I checked on the reported totals from the Vermont ski areas for this event thus far, and the north to south listing is below.  These are the upper mountain totals as usual, and this event is quite elevation dependent – a great example is Stowe, where they clearly point out (and as PF nicely updated for us in this thread) that they picked up just a trace down low near their base elevations.  Bolton is indicating 3-4”, and I’m guessing that’s 3” at the main base (~2,100’) and 4” at the summit (~3,100’), which would be pretty consistent with what PF just reported for the 2,000’ to 3,000’ range at Stowe.  None of the resorts south of Sugarbush were reporting any accumulations.

 

Jay Peak: 2”

Stowe: 6”

Bolton Valley: 4”

Sugarbush: 4”

Killington: 0”

Okemo: 0”

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 0”

 

If the models are correct, there should be more snow to come with this event, with lowering snow levels as well.

[powderfreak]

It is absolutely nuking up there right now.  Even in the base we've gone over to half dollar sized flakes.

This fast westerly flow is usually a very good set-up for Mansfield.

[J.Spin]

  On 12/2/2016 at 1:59 PM, J.Spin said:

If the models are correct, there should be more snow to come with this event, with lowering snow levels as well.

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Some BTV NWS forecast discussion on the snow levels, potential accumulations, etc.

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Freezing levels begin the period this morning generally around mid- slope at 2500 feet, then gradually lower to around 1500 feet by 00z, and further almost right to the valley floor around 500 ft overnight. In general this supports snow as the dominant ptype across the higher summits, while lower elevations will be mainly rain during the day today, and a rain/snow mix tonight. The resulting snow accumulations will be only a dusting to perhaps an inch below 1500 feet, but upwards of 4-6" can be expected above 2500 feet.

 

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 300 AM EST Friday...Then more of the same for Saturday as we remain in northwesterly flow and a final upper shortwave swings through the region. Mainly cloudy skies with solid pops in the 40-60 percent range will be maintained, mainly across elevated terrain where orographic forcing will aid in boundary layer ascent supportive of snow shower activity.

[powderfreak]

Another round... really too bad its not a few degrees colder.  Could've been a good snow event for the lower elevations too.

We are getting everything at the base area from huge flakes at times, rain, white rain, graupel the size of hail, pellets, etc.

Above 2,500ft is getting quite the pasting though.

 

[eyewall]

  On 12/2/2016 at 5:26 PM, powderfreak said:

Another round... really too bad its not a few degrees colder.  Could've been a good snow event for the lower elevations too.

We are getting everything at the base area from huge flakes at times, rain, white rain, graupel the size of hail, pellets, etc.

Above 2,500ft is getting quite the pasting though.



 

Hopefully smuggs is cashing in



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[powderfreak]

  On 12/2/2016 at 5:28 PM, eyewall said:

Hopefully smuggs is cashing in
 

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I am still perplexed as to how they didn't report any snow last night except to say they've gotten 1-2" so far today in Hugh's Blog.

I can see Smuggs and the Notch are equally plastered white as Mansfield.

In Hugh's blog there's this panoramic photo from Sterling Pond and it clearly snowed, haha.  To really weenie out, look at the lower right hand corner where there are footprints in the snow...that looks like a healthy 4-6".  This is pretty easy to measure because its dense and not very wind-blown prone, and there's either bare ground or very easily distinguished old snow surface underneath.

http://www.smuggs.com/pages/winter/skiride/hughs-blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/pond.jpg

[eyewall]

  On 12/2/2016 at 5:38 PM, powderfreak said:

I am still perplexed as to how they didn't report any snow last night except to say they've gotten 1-2" so far today in Hugh's Blog.

I can see Smuggs and the Notch are equally plastered white as Mansfield.

In Hugh's blog there's this panoramic photo from Sterling Pond and it clearly snowed, haha.  To really weenie out, look at the lower right hand corner where there are footprints in the snow...that looks like a healthy 4-6".  This is pretty easy to measure because its dense and not very wind-blown prone, and there's either bare ground or very easily distinguished old snow surface underneath.

http://www.smuggs.com/pages/winter/skiride/hughs-blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/pond.jpg

Looking good! I plan on a few turns tomorrow.



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[eekuasepinniW]

 

[klw]

  On 12/2/2016 at 1:43 PM, powderfreak said:

Coming down steadily still on the mountain...

A solid/dense 6" above 3,000ft and 3-6" between 2,000-3,000ft.

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Trying to figure out if we are looking up or down the trail.  I assume down but could be entirely wrong,.

[OceanStWx]

  On 12/2/2016 at 5:38 PM, powderfreak said:

I am still perplexed as to how they didn't report any snow last night except to say they've gotten 1-2" so far today in Hugh's Blog.

I can see Smuggs and the Notch are equally plastered white as Mansfield.

In Hugh's blog there's this panoramic photo from Sterling Pond and it clearly snowed, haha.  To really weenie out, look at the lower right hand corner where there are footprints in the snow...that looks like a healthy 4-6".  This is pretty easy to measure because its dense and not very wind-blown prone, and there's either bare ground or very easily distinguished old snow surface underneath.

http://www.smuggs.com/pages/winter/skiride/hughs-blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/pond.jpg

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Thus far this blocked, westerly flow is good for you guys but robs our forecast area. BTV's Froude forecast (ours stopped calculating yesterday, damn AWIPS patches) says we start going unblocked about now. So we'll start to see more activity in the Whites. But still, NW flow is better for our big totals.

[qg_omega]

whiteface picking up some snow today, stowe looks like its getting hit good today

[powderfreak]

  On 12/2/2016 at 8:05 PM, OceanStWx said:

Thus far this blocked, westerly flow is good for you guys but robs our forecast area. BTV's Froude forecast (ours stopped calculating yesterday, damn AWIPS patches) says we start going unblocked about now. So we'll start to see more activity in the Whites. But still, NW flow is better for our big totals.

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When I left at 2pm I was getting consistent 7-8" depths on top of the rain crust.

This is a perfect set up for Mansfield east slope.  Even now, just crushing snow above 2000ft.  Ski Patrol says whiteout up top.

Heaviest echoes keep going right into Mansfield.

[OceanStWx]

  On 12/2/2016 at 8:47 PM, powderfreak said:

When I left at 2pm I was getting consistent 7-8" depths on top of the rain crust.

This is a perfect set up for Mansfield east slope.  Even now, just crushing snow above 2000ft.  Ski Patrol says whiteout up top.

Heaviest echoes keep going right into Mansfield.

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MWN reporting +SHSN now

Definitely a secondary front coming through now, so we'll see where the best lake enhanced band sets up from there.

[adk]

Yea, it's not super cold but damn, the WRF says another .5" moisture at least overnight. With the rotation and flow I believe it. 

[powderfreak]

Mixed down some huge flakes in town during that last burst...then back to rain as it lightened up.

[J.Spin]

  On 12/2/2016 at 5:38 PM, powderfreak said:

I am still perplexed as to how they didn't report any snow last night except to say they've gotten 1-2" so far today in Hugh's Blog.

I can see Smuggs and the Notch are equally plastered white as Mansfield.

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I just figured Smugg’s is still out of season, so they’re not actively reporting their snow, but they did add an afternoon total.  I made an update to the list for areas that made a P.M. report – accumulations have reached down to Killington now.

 

Jay Peak: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 8”

Sugarbush: 6”

Killington: 1”

Okemo: 0”

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 0”

[tamarack]

  On 12/1/2016 at 11:43 PM, dryslot said:

2.54" rain total was the 2 day total here

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2.09" at my place, so the swamps are filling up.  Looking forward to when that RA at 32-34 becomes SN.  I did have some snow at the beginning of each event, 0.5" and 0.7" respectively, though none is left.  Fort Kent reporting 17" at 4 PM yesterday and snow had not ended, and that atop the 10"+ from #1. 

[dryslot]

  On 12/2/2016 at 9:58 PM, tamarack said:

2.09" at my place, so the swamps are filling up.  Looking forward to when that RA at 32-34 becomes SN.  I did have some snow at the beginning of each event, 0.5" and 0.7" respectively, though none is left.  Fort Kent reporting 17" at 4 PM yesterday and snow had not ended, and that atop the 10"+ from #1. 

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Hopefully the next couple week we see something in our neck of the woods, That whole crown got clobbered over that last few days

[OceanStWx]

Nice squally look on the radar now. Just emerges right out of the Northeast Kingdom radar hole.

The webcams up by Pittsburg look like a nice fresh coating just laid down.

[powderfreak]

  On 12/2/2016 at 9:45 PM, J.Spin said:

 

I just figured Smugg’s is still out of season, so they’re not actively reporting their snow, but they did add an afternoon total.  I made an update to the list for areas that made a P.M. report – accumulations have reached down to Killington now.

 

Jay Peak: 4”

Smuggler’s Notch: 3”

Stowe: 8”

Sugarbush: 6”

Killington: 1”

Okemo: 0”

Stratton: 0”

Mount Snow: 0”

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Smuggs has been open daily for skiing and riding, so I figure they should be actively reporting snowfall like business as usual?

I think they are closer to our total than they are stating though based on the photos. 

[powderfreak]

Anyway, really strong pull in the last 24 hours by the Mansfield COOP.  6" of snow in the elevated bucket, snow depth increased 7", and 0.98" precipitation. 

This was all snow in the last 24 hours up there, so adding ~1" of liquid equivalent in the form of snow to the upper mountain is a really big help.  If this moisture train continues though we could be adding another 0.5-1.0" QPF to that by Sunday evening. 

Also, as speculated last night, this was very under-played by the models though the HRRR did catch on.  But no one had a 1" QPF event progged for like 21z Thur to 21z Friday.

Daily Hydrometeorological Data
National Weather Service Burlington VT
549 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016

Station            Precip   Temperature   Present         Snow
                   24 Hrs   Max Min Cur   Weather     New Total SWE
...Vermont...
Mount Mansfield     0.98    28  25  28   Light snow   6.0  15

[alex]

Snow started 5' ago here, ground is whitened. 

In other news, they could not install the new septic tank today because the hole quickly turned into a swimming pool. They're going to try again on Tuesday hoping it drains out; if not, they said they might need to wait till June. I'm so frustrated. 

[OceanStWx]

  On 12/2/2016 at 11:18 PM, powderfreak said:

Anyway, really strong pull in the last 24 hours by the Mansfield COOP.  6" of snow in the elevated bucket, snow depth increased 7", and 0.98" precipitation. 

This was all snow in the last 24 hours up there, so adding ~1" of liquid equivalent in the form of snow to the upper mountain is a really big help.  If this moisture train continues though we could be adding another 0.5-1.0" QPF to that by Sunday evening. 

Also, as speculated last night, this was very under-played by the models though the HRRR did catch on.  But no one had a 1" QPF event progged for like 21z Thur to 21z Friday.

Daily Hydrometeorological Data
National Weather Service Burlington VT
549 PM EST FRI DEC 2 2016

Station            Precip   Temperature   Present         Snow
                   24 Hrs   Max Min Cur   Weather     New Total SWE
...Vermont...
Mount Mansfield     0.98    28  25  28   Light snow   6.0  15

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I suspect that models likely underplayed the blocked flow scenario too, which definitely helped VT accumulations. Even tonight the signal was stronger for upslope snows here, but we're not missing a Ginxy WINDEX event by much. BTV snow squall parameter is pretty high right now, and north of the notches where it's cold enough the visibility dropped quickly with a fast coating. 

[OceanStWx]

MWN 2.3" last 6 hours, and most of that probably in the last couple.