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NNE Fall Thread

dryslot

By dryslot,
in New England

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

I'll start the fall thread out with some general musings...

Another day of unbelievably great weather for Northern and Central New England.  Temps already into the 70's approaching mid day, dark blue sky, no wind.   Just endless long streaks of warm/hot, dry weather this past meteorological summer. Can't remember the last time of a couple of dark, rainy days. International boarder regions did okay with rainfall, gets drier and drier as you head south.  

Past couple of weeks I keep reading articles about how fast the planet is warming.  New article today says that we will pass the point of no return in about a decade.  It gets me thinking that our new New England climate norm will be warm and dry.  I have to remind myself that weather and climate change are 2 different things.  Two years ago we had that very cold winter.  I remember the cold extending well into March.  I thought spring would never arrive.  Now it seems the opposite.  A winter with little snow and temperatures in the 30's and 40's most days?

Anyhow the first cool shot about to arrive.  Temps will rebound next week but not back to the 70's and 80's but  more realistic 60's. 

Let fall begin for this region.  I for one am ready.

 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

 It gets me thinking that our new New England climate norm will be warm and dry.  I have to remind myself that weather and climate change are 2 different things.

Ten-plus years ago the thinking was warm and wet, as 2005 established new records in Maine for annual precip and AN rainfall was continuing . 

This month certainly fits the warm and dry - today will make 17-of-22 with temps AN, and there's a decent chance that we'll finish with less rain than the 0.84" in 2014, currently my lowest for Sept.

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, tamarack said:

 It gets me thinking that our new New England climate norm will be warm and dry.  I have to remind myself that weather and climate change are 2 different things.

Ten-plus years ago the thinking was warm and wet, as 2005 established new records in Maine for annual precip and AN rainfall was continuing . 

This month certainly fits the warm and dry - today will make 17-of-22 with temps AN, and there's a decent chance that we'll finish with less rain than the 0.84" in 2014, currently my lowest for Sept.

 

Yeah we were running some incredible rainfall surpluses as a region (New England/Northeast) not that long ago.  Its just whenever something happens a couple/few years in a row we think its the new normal... like the new normal is it never snows in the interior, only coastal regions, lol.

We were due for several dry seasons.

Anyway, its been dry over here too in September...drier than June/July/August.  I'm around 1.50" I believe, though would have to double check that.  An inch of that was in a couple hours of convection though two weekends ago.

Have some rain coming up in the next 24 hours though... HRRR/NAM/MesoModels are quite wet, while the Globals are not.  We'll see what happens.

NAM

nam4km_apcpn_neus_12.png

 

Latest HRRR run (still raining at the end of the run)...

hrrr_apcpn_neus_18.png

 

GFS though is not that impressed.

gfs_apcpn_neus_4.png

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'll start the fall thread out with some general musings...

Another day of unbelievably great weather for Northern and Central New England.  Temps already into the 70's approaching mid day, dark blue sky, no wind.  

This has been just a string of Top-10 days that has seemingly gone on forever.  June and July were filled with them, 40 degree diurnal swings were the norm with sunny days of like 82/43.  August was humid but so far September has been "Chamber of Commerce" worthy every day.  Today was another with a high of like 81-82F after morning lows in the 40s.  I love this weather.  70s almost every day with a few low 80s and upper 60s thrown in for good measure...dews in the 40s/50s...tons of sunshine....what an awesome month and summer to work outside on the mountain every day.

 

 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

Good luck PF with your rain.  I'd take .25" down here just to keep the grass green.  Someone in the drought thread posted the rainfall deficit for New England for the past 3 years.  I was really surprised to see how SNE especially east sections are running over 20" deficits.  It just seemed to me that the past 2 winters we were complaining that every storm was a miss south but yet they are much drier than us up here.  

Almost 8pm and all the windows are wide open and the house is still warm.  I think its safe to say this will be the last night till next spring that house will be wide open this late in the evening...

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Good luck PF with your rain.  I'd take .25" down here just to keep the grass green.  Someone in the drought thread posted the rainfall deficit for New England for the past 3 years.  I was really surprised to see how SNE especially east sections are running over 20" deficits.  It just seemed to me that the past 2 winters we were complaining that every storm was a miss south but yet they are much drier than us up here.  

Almost 8pm and all the windows are wide open and the house is still warm.  I think its safe to say this will be the last night till next spring that house will be wide open this late in the evening...

I'll go out on a limb and say we'll have another warm night or two...some kind of prefrontal SW flow deal like tonight. It's not that warm here either...67/61.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Good luck PF with your rain.  I'd take .25" down here just to keep the grass green.  Someone in the drought thread posted the rainfall deficit for New England for the past 3 years.  I was really surprised to see how SNE especially east sections are running over 20" deficits.  It just seemed to me that the past 2 winters we were complaining that every storm was a miss south but yet they are much drier than us up here.  

Almost 8pm and all the windows are wide open and the house is still warm.  I think its safe to say this will be the last night till next spring that house will be wide open this late in the evening...

Some of those spots that may be mostly due to this year. I know up until that rain last week, MHT was running a -16 on precip.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Global models did not do well with this...GFS/GGEM were way too far north.  WRF/NAM/HRRR performed much better with the swath of precip even at 18z yesterday.

For once we are actually doing the same or a little better than the mountain, by a few hundredths haha.  Triangulate the 0.7, 0.7, 0.6 and I'm smack in the middle of those 3 stations.

image.jpeg

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Global models did not do well with this...GFS/GGEM were way too far north.  WRF/NAM/HRRR performed much better with the swath of precip even at 18z yesterday.

For once we are actually doing the same or a little better than the mountain, by a few hundredths haha.  Triangulate the 0.7, 0.7, 0.6 and I'm smack in the middle of those 3 stations.

image.jpeg

All I know is that I'm at Orleans Country Clib waiting to tee off and it's still pouring. Looks like we picked the wrong day to take off work. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

0.87" in the Stratus for a storm total.

It still sucks that the one official station in the area (MVL ASOS) cannot accumulate rainfall.

The ASOS thinks there's been 0.09" of precip today when surrounded by 0.75-1.00" PWS stations (just north of Morrisville there's a 0.81" in Hyde Park out of frame).  I added my 0.87" for where I am.  A solid soaking rain...but again it sucks that the one official station can't do precipitation.

Sept_23_MVL.jpg

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted

Have not even checked the gauge because its barely did anything down this way rain wise.

Do see some what I think are lake effect rain showers coming off Ontario, nice sign that we are transitioning seasons. Be nice to keep those lakes as warm as possible as the LE snow bands can sometimes stretch over into VT.

 

 

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

0.05" today. Why bother. Little leaf change up here in Crawford Notch. Rivers dry. 2ecd7fc1381437aabbdfc302bfc7793f.jpg

Drive another 10 miles West and you'll get some decent (certainly not peak but decent) color at Bretton Woods (and a free chair ride). It hasn't been that dry. The rivers are actually not that much below normal - water flow this time of the year is normally quite low in the notch. I spoke with the guy that did my wetland mapping (and published several studies on the Ammo River) and the flow of the Ammo (sure, that's not Crawford Notch but I have to imagine similar conditions) is actually just slightly below normal for this time of the year. September has been somewhat dry - 2.13" of rain, 0.4 today - but it's really not that dramatic. 

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted
Drive another 10 miles West and you'll get some decent (certainly not peak but decent) color at Bretton Woods (and a free chair ride). It hasn't been that dry. The rivers are actually not that much below normal - water flow this time of the year is normally quite low in the notch. I spoke with the guy that did my wetland mapping (and published several studies on the Ammo River) and the flow of the Ammo (sure, that's not Crawford Notch but I have to imagine similar conditions) is actually just slightly below normal for this time of the year. September has been somewhat dry - 2.13" of rain, 0.4 today - but it's really not that dramatic. 

Hiked up to lakes of the clouds via Ammo. Quite chilly, temp around 40 f and stiff wind.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Dew was frozen on the vehicle roofs, did not check the thermometer.  The Friday morning rain brought 0.43", about twice what I'd expected, month now at 0.93".  Sandy River was at about half the 25th percentile flow yesterday, won't bump up much from that rain.  Leaf change at 10-15% except for ash, which is 50% with leaves dropping soon after coloring.  Some very bright red maples here and there.

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