KA Winter Outlook 2016-2017

[Daniel Boone]

On 9/23/2016 at 5:31 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

And thank you for doing that as I checked my notes and I had it wrong

It appears that HM agrees with the mild outlook, at least at this juncture. Ka's outlook makes a little more sense now that you corrected one of the analogues. However, that 80-81 wasn't very warm either. Cold/ snowy feb. parts of the region. Maybe Ka's other analog ought to be '49-50.

   All speculation and carrying on aside , with the players on the field as they are, I would have to say it could go either way. Warm ne pacific blob favoring +pna,cold central/east. neutral/weak nina favors yielding to other players. W-qbo favoring mild.

[Roger Smith]

I would expect a variable but at times very cold winter with several snowstorms and above average snowfall totals.

The Pacific is shaping up to be zonal and this can invite very strong arctic outbreaks as the Siberian-Alaskan-NW Canada connection tends to be strong as a result. 

A dominant feature of the winter is likely to be extreme cold in central Canada and the northern plains states. But I don't see a strong enough ridge-trough couplet to turn this into a 1949-50 style winter overall. 

So for predictions I will go Dec -1, Jan -3 and Feb n/n 

and about 125% of normal snowfall trending to 150% in southern VA and inland NC. 

Also encouraging, my research into energy peaks suggests a stronger modulation than most recent winters, meaning that very deep low pressure centers are likely to form at opportune times, and the storm tracks favored include one (not a dominant one) that begins around the eastern Gulf of Mexico and runs northeast past Cape Hatteras to New England. When that one cashes in on an energy peak there should be at least one blizzard for the region.

I do want to add that the pattern will be variable enough to include some record warmth and this may show up in late February and early March, so unlike some recent winters, this one probably won't be back-loaded. The best winter synoptics are likely to be in the second half of January. 

[frd]

31 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I would expect a variable but at times very cold winter with several snowstorms and above average snowfall totals.

The Pacific is shaping up to be zonal and this can invite very strong arctic outbreaks as the Siberian-Alaskan-NW Canada connection tends to be strong as a result. 

A dominant feature of the winter is likely to be extreme cold in central Canada and the northern plains states. But I don't see a strong enough ridge-trough couplet to turn this into a 1949-50 style winter overall. 

So for predictions I will go Dec -1, Jan -3 and Feb n/n 

and about 125% of normal snowfall trending to 150% in southern VA and inland NC. 

Also encouraging, my research into energy peaks suggests a stronger modulation than most recent winters, meaning that very deep low pressure centers are likely to form at opportune times, and the storm tracks favored include one (not a dominant one) that begins around the eastern Gulf of Mexico and runs northeast past Cape Hatteras to New England. When that one cashes in on an energy peak there should be at least one blizzard for the region.

I do want to add that the pattern will be variable enough to include some record warmth and this may show up in late February and early March, so unlike some recent winters, this one probably won't be back-loaded. The best winter synoptics are likely to be in the second half of January. 

 

Roger, thank you for your insights. May I ask how much do you factor in solar and QBO into your long range forecasts  ?   

 

[Roger Smith]

I use index values from a large number of postulated external factors and so far this has worked out well enough that I am riding the assumption that teleconnections are built into the method. Solar cycles probably have limited application to seasonal or year-to-year variations, I believe that solar activity drives the longer-term trends and that we should be into a slight overall decline in temperature as a result, but I don't think it makes any difference to the larger season-to-season variability. 

The research output looks more variable than many winters and I expect it will be a bit of a wild ride. 

[WEATHERBUFF]

7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I would expect a variable but at times very cold winter with several snowstorms and above average snowfall totals.

The Pacific is shaping up to be zonal and this can invite very strong arctic outbreaks as the Siberian-Alaskan-NW Canada connection tends to be strong as a result. 

A dominant feature of the winter is likely to be extreme cold in central Canada and the northern plains states. But I don't see a strong enough ridge-trough couplet to turn this into a 1949-50 style winter overall. 

So for predictions I will go Dec -1, Jan -3 and Feb n/n 

and about 125% of normal snowfall trending to 150% in southern VA and inland NC. 

Also encouraging, my research into energy peaks suggests a stronger modulation than most recent winters, meaning that very deep low pressure centers are likely to form at opportune times, and the storm tracks favored include one (not a dominant one) that begins around the eastern Gulf of Mexico and runs northeast past Cape Hatteras to New England. When that one cashes in on an energy peak there should be at least one blizzard for the region.

I do want to add that the pattern will be variable enough to include some record warmth and this may show up in late February and early March, so unlike some recent winters, this one probably won't be back-loaded. The best winter synoptics are likely to be in the second half of January. 

Do you think it would be more of an inland winter than last year?

[Roger Smith]

Equally good coastal, I-95 and  further inland. Not just a one-horse race either, although that was some horse. 

[Isotherm]

I posted my outlook in the main board and NYC forum for those interested.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

KA's outlook has been very good so far. 

[BristowWx]

On 1/26/2017 at 11:58 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

KA's outlook has been very good so far. 

Roger Smith's was not very good however.  In fact it's the complete opposite of what has occurred.  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

14 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Roger Smith's was not very good however.  In fact it's the complete opposite of what has occurred.  

The funny part is, even KA wasn't bearish enough. But he definitely had the right idea.

What's interesting to me is how almost no one ever sees a shutout winter coming. In 11/12 there was a Baltimore Sun reporter who had a snow contest for BWI, I technically "won" because I guessed the lowest but I was still way too high (I picked 8"). Same with the snow contest this year- it seems everyone gets blindsided with these types of winters. 

[mattie g]

28 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

The funny part is, even KA wasn't bearish enough. But he definitely had the right idea.

What's interesting to me is how almost no one ever sees a shutout winter coming. In 11/12 there was a Baltimore Sun reporter who had a snow contest for BWI, I technically "won" because I guessed the lowest but I was still way too high (I picked 8"). Same with the snow contest this year- it seems everyone gets blindsided with these types of winters. 

Just like people never see a massive winter coming. I faintly remember people being excited for 2009-2010, but no one was predicting over 50" for DCA, nor do I think anyone would have foreseen/forecast over 40" there.

[WinterWxLuvr]

On 9/22/2016 at 5:09 PM, psuhoffman said:

We do this every year when his forecast is issued. There is always something about it that is head scratch worthy and never a satisfactory explanation. I've learned to disregard it completely. 

He has done very well this year.

[NorthArlington101]

29 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Just like people never see a massive winter coming. I faintly remember people being excited for 2009-2010, but no one was predicting over 50" for DCA, nor do I think anyone would have foreseen/forecast over 40" there.

People tend to predict the about the average because it works. 

I applaud those who try and guess low/high. KA did very well this year. Haven't followed his predictions enough to know if he knows what he's doing or this was a broken clock twice a day thing. 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

26 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Just like people never see a massive winter coming. I faintly remember people being excited for 2009-2010, but no one was predicting over 50" for DCA, nor do I think anyone would have foreseen/forecast over 40" there.

If I recall correctly, there were a lot of people calling for 150-200% of climo or more in 09/10. I'm not so much hung up on amounts here, but rather the overall forecast. Many people went cold and snowy for 09/10, even if the forecasted totals were too conservative. Just like the mostly busted forecasts for 11/12, I rarely ever see anyone forecast a snowless blowtorch. I don't know enough about long range patterns and all that, but it seems like the signal for a disaster is less clear than a big winter.

Either way, I don't know KA's track record but he definitely deserves a nod for this one.

[mattie g]

19 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

If I recall correctly, there were a lot of people calling for 150-200% of climo or more in 09/10. I'm not so much hung up on amounts here, but rather the overall forecast. Many people went cold and snowy for 09/10, even if the forecasted totals were too conservative. Just like the mostly busted forecasts for 11/12, I rarely ever see anyone forecast a snowless blowtorch. I don't know enough about long range patterns and all that, but it seems like the signal for a disaster is less clear than a big winter.

Either way, I don't know KA's track record but he definitely deserves a nod for this one.

Yeah...that's my recollection as well. That would put DCA at 25-30", which is well less than what actually happened. I think that's similar to someone saying they expect a crap year here, with 5-7" of snow at DCA. That's <50% of climo, and it's not unprecedented, but anyone would be hard pressed to go below that just because low single digits is quite rare.

Here are the numbers since 1980-81 for DCA:

1980-81: 4.5
1981-82: 22.5
1982-83: 27.6
1983-84: 8.6
1984-85: 10.3
1985-86: 15.4
1986-87: 31.1
1987-88: 25.0
1988-89: 5.7
1989-90: 15.3
1990-91: 8.1
1991-92: 6.6
1992-93: 11.7
1993-94: 13.2
1994-95: 10.1
1995-96: 46.0
1996-97: 6.7
1997-98: 0.1
1998-99: 11.6
1999-00: 15.4
2000-01: 7.4
2001-02: 3.2
2002-03: 40.4
2003-04: 12.4
2004-05: 12.5
2005-06: 13.6
2006-07: 9.5
2007-08: 4.9
2008-09: 7.5
2009-10: 56.1
2010-11: 10.1
2011-12: 2.0
2012-13: 3.1
2013-14: 32.0
2014-15: 8.3
2015-16: 22.2

The average over this period is 15.02". DCA has seen less than that in 24 of those years, and more than that in 12 years. However, the interesting thing is that DCA has gotten >30" (200%) five times in this period, while it's gotten <3.75" (25%) only four times. Basically, it's similarly likely for a 200%-of-climo season as it is for a 25%-of-climo season.

[WinterWxLuvr]

13 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yeah...that's my recollection as well. That would put DCA at 25-30", which is well less than what actually happened. I think that's similar to someone saying they expect a crap year here, with 5-7" of snow at DCA. That's <50% of climo, and it's not unprecedented, but anyone would be hard pressed to go below that just because low single digits is quite rare.

Here are the numbers since 1980-81 for DCA:

1980-81: 4.5
1981-82: 22.5
1982-83: 27.6
1983-84: 8.6
1984-85: 10.3
1985-86: 15.4
1986-87: 31.1
1987-88: 25.0
1988-89: 5.7
1989-90: 15.3
1990-91: 8.1
1991-92: 6.6
1992-93: 11.7
1993-94: 13.2
1994-95: 10.1
1995-96: 46.0
1996-97: 6.7
1997-98: 0.1
1998-99: 11.6
1999-00: 15.4
2000-01: 7.4
2001-02: 3.2
2002-03: 40.4
2003-04: 12.4
2004-05: 12.5
2005-06: 13.6
2006-07: 9.5
2007-08: 4.9
2008-09: 7.5
2009-10: 56.1
2010-11: 10.1
2011-12: 2.0
2012-13: 3.1
2013-14: 32.0
2014-15: 8.3
2015-16: 22.2

The average over this period is 15.02". DCA has seen less than that in 24 of those years, and more than that in 12 years. However, the interesting thing is that DCA has gotten >30" (200%) five times in this period, while it's gotten <3.75" (25%) only four times. Basically, it's similarly likely for a 200%-of-climo season as it is for a 25%-of-climo season.

That 2012-2013 number is just amazing.  I had over 20" here in March alone.

[mattie g]

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That 2012-2013 number is just amazing.  I had over 20" here in March alone.

12.7" that season at Dulles, with 7.4" coming in March.

You guys out there are in a different world in a lot of ways, while DCA is in a different world even from us who are in the relatively close-in suburbs.

[Sparky]

Has TJ left the board?