raindancewx Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 This is just an observation and not meant as a prediction: It's pretty rare to have four winters in a row of above average snow long-term (I used 1931-1932 to 2015-16 for average) in most places. Richmond/DC/Philly/NY have all had three winters of >=average snowfall. To use Philly...the last time the city had >=22.2" snow four times in a row was in the 1960s. It seems like a sequence of four snowy winters in a row only tends to happen two to three times a century in a given place, so I'd wager below to near normal personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: DC averages like 16" per season....more often than not, its going to be a small amount of events that comprises the vast majority of snowfall...its the nature of the beast. How it falls is irrelevant. No it's not irrelevant. To me. Do you understand that? I don't want a one weekend winter. I'm not all that interested in what someone else likes. To each his own. Why do people outside of the MA care so much about what we think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No it's not irrelevant. To me. Do you understand that? I don't want a one weekend winter. I'm not all that interested in what someone else likes. To each his own. Why do people outside of the MA care so much about what we think? It has nothing to do with what you like. Average snowfall is average snowfall. I really don't understand your thinking on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: No it's not irrelevant. To me. Do you understand that? I don't want a one weekend winter. I'm not all that interested in what someone else likes. To each his own. Why do people outside of the MA care so much about what we think? I read it because there are many awesome posters from this region with a wealth of invaluable information to offer. Objectively speaking, it is irrelevant. Subjectively, no. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I read it because there are many awesome posters from this region with a wealth of invaluable information to offer. Objectively speaking, it is irrelevant. Subjectively, no. Agreed. It depends I suppose. If just using a number as a prediction relative to normal, then the total is all that matters. If judging a winter on total snowfall, I don't think you get a good indicator. I thought last winter was horrible. Yeah, a huge storm, 10 days worth of excitement, and 3 more months of crap. Avg here is in and around 30-35". I would view a 28" winter, BA, as a good one if it fell in 7 4" events. Like I said, to each his own. I like cold and snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It depends I suppose. If just using a number as a prediction relative to normal, then the total is all that matters. If judging a winter on total snowfall, I don't think you get a good indicator. I thought last winter was horrible. Yeah, a huge storm, 10 days worth of excitement, and 3 more months of crap. Avg here is in and around 30-35". I would view a 28" winter, BA, as a good one if it fell in 7 4" events. Like I said, to each his own. I like cold and snow on the ground. Absolutely....I agree. I just meant for total amount of snow. Didn't mean to be argumentative.....I hear you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Absolutely....I agree. I just meant for total amount of snow. Didn't mean to be argumentative.....I hear you. No problem. It's just an ongoing silly debate around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 ENSO neutral(ish) winters are very hard to forecast, but given (A) the recent move towards a weak La Nina and (B) the warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska trending further west than recent years, it's not looking too great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ENSO neutral(ish) winters are very hard to forecast, but given (A) the recent move towards a weak La Nina and (B) the warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska trending further west than recent years, it's not looking too great for us. Looking at the freebie Euro site maps from its September update, Euro looks to put the MA in the average temps category for Dec-Feb. If correct, it will feel cold vs. last year and we have a shot at average snowfall. I'm good with that at this point. Recall as well that the winter of 13/14 didn't look so hot at this point in 2013, so who knows...yet ❓ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 5 years from now, winter 2015-16 will be fondly rembered as the last really big storm in the MA. One that we would give up our middle child for to happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 my analogs are neutral winters after an el nino...or weak negative/la nina's...Dec-Jan would be -0.9 and snowfall 20"...three of the eleven were mild...seven were cold and one near average...five years had above average snowfall...three well below average and three more below average... season...DJF ONI...DCA snowfall DJF TEMP.... 1959-60....-0.1.........24.3".....39.5 1966-67....-0.4.........37.1".....37.5 1978-79.....0.0.........37.7".....35.5 1980-81....-0.2...........4.5".....38.8 1983-84....-0.5...........8.6".....37.3 1992-93.....0.2.........11.7".....37.9 2003-04.....0.3.........12.4".....36.0 2005-06....-0.7.........13.6".....39.4 ............................................................................................... 1954-55....-0.6...........6.6".....36.8 1964-65....-0.5.........17.1".....36.7 1995-96....-0.9.........46.0".....35.3 11yr average............20.0".....37.3 normal.....................15.4".....38.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 42 minutes ago, uncle W said: my analogs are neutral winters after an el nino...or weak negative/la nina's...Dec-Jan would be -0.9 and snowfall 20"...three of the eleven were mild...seven were cold and one near average...five years had above average snowfall...three well below average and three more below average... season...DJF ONI...DCA snowfall DJF TEMP.... 1959-60....-0.1.........24.3".....39.5 1966-67....-0.4.........37.1".....37.5 1978-79.....0.0.........37.7".....35.5 1980-81....-0.2...........4.5".....38.8 1983-84....-0.5...........8.6".....37.3 1992-93.....0.2.........11.7".....37.9 2003-04.....0.3.........12.4".....36.0 2005-06....-0.7.........13.6".....39.4 ............................................................................................... 1954-55....-0.6...........6.6".....36.8 1964-65....-0.5.........17.1".....36.7 1995-96....-0.9.........46.0".....35.3 11yr average............20.0".....37.3 normal.....................15.4".....38.2 83/84 is the analog I've had my money on... ENSO, solar, etc. That was also the coldest Christmas ever so I like to weenie out and wishcast. If we torch through yet another December I'm gonna lose it in the panic room worse than 12/26/10. I can't deal with another Christmas wearing shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 I rest easy knowing that seasonal forecasting is still mostly guesswork dressed up with some creative accounting at the end of the season to make the results somehow seem correlated to the forecast and not just random chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 7 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: 83/84 is the analog I've had my money on... ENSO, solar, etc. That was also the coldest Christmas ever so I like to weenie out and wishcast. If we torch through yet another December I'm gonna lose it in the panic room worse than 12/26/10. I can't deal with another Christmas wearing shorts. Yes god please cold turkey day and Christmas. Nothing on this earth is worse than steaming hot days for both. If my windows are open on Christmas it's like hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 5 years from now, winter 2015-16 will be fondly rembered as the last really big storm in the MA. One that we would give up our middle child for to happen again. Believe me, for this weenie, the 5 years is already here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Take this KA! Lol http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: 5 years from now, winter 2015-16 will be fondly rembered as the last really big storm in the MA. One that we would give up our middle child for to happen again. The ambivalence about our January blizzard (not commenting about the season as a whole, just this one storm) never made sense to me. We fondly remember benchmark storms with no snow in the following week that melted just as fast or faster (2/79 and 2/83). 1/16 beat 1/96 in snow totals and wind speeds at IAD and DCA, and in snow total at BWI. 1/96 was obviously colder, but 1/16 was plenty cold when compared to 2/5-6/10. I understand that for many areas not in the metro regions, 1/96 was much better. But speaking for myself and many in the DC/Baltimore metro region, 1/16 was the windiest 20"+ snowstorm in our lifetime so far. The storm itself was a beast--- record tides at Lewes, DE and Cape May, NJ beating both 3/62 and Sandy. The coastal low was basically a more intense copy of 1/96, complete with the Tidewater stall. As frustrating as the dry-slot was to the eastern half of the metro regions, 1/96 had just as long and, for some, even a longer dry-slot. The difference that is favorable for 1/16 is that the 1/16 dry-slot for the metro areas ended in mid-afternoon when it was still daylight; the crazy downtown DC conditions were captured on video during daylight hours. 1/96's dry slot of light snow, snow grains, graupel, and/or light sleet (all the way into DC) lasted into the evening, so the best "blizzard-y" bands moved in after sunset and into the overnight. I'm sure advances in technology will continue to advance plowing coordination, road treatments, etc. So our present-day blizzards will continue towards being less crippling than the legends of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 ^ need like button STAT It was a rare storm. An incredible storm. And yes, a storm that made last winter memorable forever. Far more memorable than the majority of our winters the last 18 years. Yea, 02-03, 09-10, 13-14, and 14-15 were good for sure. But since 97, 15-16 is an easy top 5 in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Love that KA is willing to stick his neck out and go against the grain. Thanks for posting. I haven't looked at much yet, but I'd probably lean cold and snowy at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 19 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said: You are incorrect and if you have something to offer then we can see how you do KA'S BEST DAYS ARE BEHIND HIM, HIS WINTER FORECASTS HAVE BEEN QUITE WRONG LATELY, ESPECIALLY WITH SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS. He is basically saying that winter will be about 3 degrees above normal. well that has been the trend of late. I'm not a weatherman but I do think snow tracks will be further north this year and DC will not do well with snow, however your call for 11 inches sounds right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 9 hours ago, gymengineer said: The ambivalence about our January blizzard (not commenting about the season as a whole, just this one storm) never made sense to me. We fondly remember benchmark storms with no snow in the following week that melted just as fast or faster (2/79 and 2/83). 1/16 beat 1/96 in snow totals and wind speeds at IAD and DCA, and in snow total at BWI. 1/96 was obviously colder, but 1/16 was plenty cold when compared to 2/5-6/10. I understand that for many areas not in the metro regions, 1/96 was much better. But speaking for myself and many in the DC/Baltimore metro region, 1/16 was the windiest 20"+ snowstorm in our lifetime so far. The storm itself was a beast--- record tides at Lewes, DE and Cape May, NJ beating both 3/62 and Sandy. The coastal low was basically a more intense copy of 1/96, complete with the Tidewater stall. As frustrating as the dry-slot was to the eastern half of the metro regions, 1/96 had just as long and, for some, even a longer dry-slot. The difference that is favorable for 1/16 is that the 1/16 dry-slot for the metro areas ended in mid-afternoon when it was still daylight; the crazy downtown DC conditions were captured on video during daylight hours. 1/96's dry slot of light snow, snow grains, graupel, and/or light sleet (all the way into DC) lasted into the evening, so the best "blizzard-y" bands moved in after sunset and into the overnight. I'm sure advances in technology will continue to advance plowing coordination, road treatments, etc. So our present-day blizzards will continue towards being less crippling than the legends of the past. 8 hours ago, Bob Chill said: ^ need like button STAT It was a rare storm. An incredible storm. And yes, a storm that made last winter memorable forever. Far more memorable than the majority of our winters the last 18 years. Yea, 02-03, 09-10, 13-14, and 14-15 were good for sure. But since 97, 15-16 is an easy top 5 in my book. Agreed on both comments here. I think a lot of people have a hard time reconciling the contrast between how warm last winter was (mainly Dec.) and a single blockbuster event for the ages. There was almost nothing else worth mentioning about last winter, but as I said before it's hard to ignore the elephant (blizzard) in the room. It was as much a part of that season as the April-like Christmas. I wasn't in the area for January 1996 but certainly heard a lot about it at the time and since. Too bad I couldn't experience it! But in the time I've been here in metro DC (since 2001) the storms that stand out for me are Feb. 2003, Dec. 2009, Feb. 2010 (both storms), and Jan. 2016; three of those storms were 20"+ at my location (PD-II just missed, and the Feb. 9-10 storm was a hard-to-measure 12" with true blizzard conditions for an extended time). Jan. 2016 tops them all in my book...even though I only recorded a mere half-inch more than in Snowmageddon (24.0" vs. 23.5"), and even with the dry slot where snow lightened up for several hours before the deformation bands moved in. Colder, windier, and no loss of accumulation at the beginning due to warmish ground. I'd almost like to place Dec. 2009 as 2nd best (cold powder, start to finish!), again even just ahead of Snowmageddon...but it's hard to deny the combined impact of Snowmageddon followed by the blizzard 5 days later. I know Bob was sort of (but not totally!) jesting that we'll look back at Jan. 2016 in 5 years and give almost anything for a repeat! But we have been there before recently, maybe there's sort of a climatology to that(?). Feb. 2003 through Dec. 2009, then Feb. 2010 to Jan. 2016. There could be some argument that there were a couple of other events (like Feb. 2006 or Feb. 2014, offhand), but those weren't quite "top tier" historical storms area-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 I won't see a HECS like 1/22-23/16 again possibly for decades. I also guarantee I won't be sled riding with my son on April 9 while the Forsythia and Lilac is in full bloom ever again. Man last winter was awesome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I've lived in Connecticut most of my life, and the Great Blizzard of 2016 is an unambiguous top five snow event personally. I remember exactly where I was, what I was doing, and what was on the tv I wasn't paying attention to when I knew I was all in. And I'll never forget being in meetings in Irvine, CA that week and my frantic attempts at convincing the bigwigs that we needed to let DC folks get home prior to the storm. It was pure elation (and relief) when taking off from LAX that Thursday afternoon. As we took off to the west and then south, then east, I wanted to jump out of my skin! I was just praying that nothing went wrong with my flight and that we would land at Dulles without an hiccups. We landed late at night, and I was absolutely buzzing with excitement as I was on the people mover heading out from the arrival gate. The drive home from the airport was pretty pleasant, as I was finally relaxing after nearly a week of worrying about whether I'd be able to get home to experience one of the top snowstorms of my life. The rest is history. Let's do it again this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Interesting forecasts, thanks for sharing Tenman. I can't say whether I agree or disagree at this juncture; will likely have mine out in early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 13 hours ago, gymengineer said: The ambivalence about our January blizzard (not commenting about the season as a whole, just this one storm) never made sense to me. We fondly remember benchmark storms with no snow in the following week that melted just as fast or faster (2/79 and 2/83). 1/16 beat 1/96 in snow totals and wind speeds at IAD and DCA, and in snow total at BWI. 1/96 was obviously colder, but 1/16 was plenty cold when compared to 2/5-6/10. I understand that for many areas not in the metro regions, 1/96 was much better. But speaking for myself and many in the DC/Baltimore metro region, 1/16 was the windiest 20"+ snowstorm in our lifetime so far. The storm itself was a beast--- record tides at Lewes, DE and Cape May, NJ beating both 3/62 and Sandy. The coastal low was basically a more intense copy of 1/96, complete with the Tidewater stall. As frustrating as the dry-slot was to the eastern half of the metro regions, 1/96 had just as long and, for some, even a longer dry-slot. The difference that is favorable for 1/16 is that the 1/16 dry-slot for the metro areas ended in mid-afternoon when it was still daylight; the crazy downtown DC conditions were captured on video during daylight hours. 1/96's dry slot of light snow, snow grains, graupel, and/or light sleet (all the way into DC) lasted into the evening, so the best "blizzard-y" bands moved in after sunset and into the overnight. I'm sure advances in technology will continue to advance plowing coordination, road treatments, etc. So our present-day blizzards will continue towards being less crippling than the legends of the past. I agree with this in a couple of regards. The timing of the lull was tough for the metro and east. If you shift the whole thing 6 hours earlier, you get the pounding in the late evening, the lulling in the late overnight hours, and then the pickup during the day. More like a better version of 2/10/2010 (for the DC metro). The street cleaning also makes a difference. If I had kept up shoveling my driveway, there wasn't any point where I couldn't have left the house during Jan. 2016. Whereas, I was basically trapped in 2010. Huge psychological difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 23, 2016 Author Share Posted September 23, 2016 I think last year was a big snow winter but not a snowy winter several chirpers can choose to remain deliberately ignorant and wrong about his outcomes-being a negative pot stirrer is a delight for the children many of you miss because you try and stick solely with "weak to neutral enso means ..." and that's not the route to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 23, 2016 Author Share Posted September 23, 2016 I corrected a primary analog from 2010-11 to 2011-12 and that was my error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 20 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: I corrected a primary analog from 2010-11 to 2011-12 and that was my error Yes, that makes a lot more sense (given what he's forecasting) than 2010-11, which was why I had questioned it earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 On 9/22/2016 at 1:44 PM, Tenman Johnson said: You are incorrect and if you have something to offer then we can see how you do 1 hour ago, Tenman Johnson said: I think last year was a big snow winter but not a snowy winter several chirpers can choose to remain deliberately ignorant and wrong about his outcomes-being a negative pot stirrer is a delight for the children many of you miss because you try and stick solely with "weak to neutral enso means ..." and that's not the route to go I would go with the pros with this winters forecast and alot has to do with the blocking. I believe the farmers almanac is just as reliable as ka. I don't live in your area but this winter I am especially glad because I believe this winter storm tracks won't be favorable but I think temps would be colder than said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 23, 2016 Author Share Posted September 23, 2016 23 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Yes, that makes a lot more sense (given what he's forecasting) than 2010-11, which was why I had questioned it earlier. And thank you for doing that as I checked my notes and I had it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.