AlexD Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Quote BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 25.0W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 25.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and a gradual turn toward the west is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression should move through the western islands of Cabo Verde this afternoon and move away from the islands tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight. After that time, some weakening could occur as the cyclone encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are expected over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday. [/quote] TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area over the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data along with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 300/12. A low- to mid-level ridge should steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the forecast period, with some decrease in forward speed after 36 hours as the ridge weakens slightly. The forecast track is near the center of the guidance envelope and close to the various consensus models. Some strengthening is expected during the next 12-24 hours. After that, the cyclone is likely to encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear while over sea surface temperatures of about 26C. This combination should lead to weakening, and the intensity forecast shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. Near the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models diverge on the evolution of the upper-level winds, with the ECMWF and UKMET forecasting a more favorable pattern than the GFS. Based on this, the forecast shows some re-intensification by 120 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates to a tropical wave as forecast by the GFS. Overall, the intensity forecast is on the low side of the guidance in best agreement with the LGEM. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over the Cabo Verde Islands. However, current indications are that the cyclone will not reach tropical-storm strength until it has moved west of the islands. Therefore, watches and warnings are not required at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.0N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.5N 26.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 29.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 17.9N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 17.8N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 17.5N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.5N 41.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 18.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ [/quote] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 gonna take a miracle for this one to not become Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Knowing the way this season's been, it'll be an open wave in 2 days. zzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 The 12z model suites show a variety different solutions in the longer range, all of which are viable possibilities, and validate that TD Twelve needs to be watched. The GFS just seems to fail to develop Twelve any more than it already has, and opens the wave back up when it nears the Carribean, making it the weakest solution. Interestingly, the GFS track seems to be further south of most of the other model runs as well, which probably has some impact on how well the storm develops. The GFS seems to be an outlier in terms of not strengthening the storm any. All other model runs seem to show development begin to occur as Twelve moves into the Carribean. The main question at this point is that where- if at all- will Twelve slip through a crack in the block to its north? The CMC seems to do this early on, as the storm is over the eastern Carribean. After reviewing the model run, it seems to do this as a result of it strengthinging Julia as it's stalled off the coast, weakening the ridge. The NAVGEM and ECMWF models both seem to be in agreement on this not happening until later, however. The ECMWF, especially, seems to take this storm and develop it rapidly, as it approaches the US coast. It's not entirely clear to me if the ECMWF solution would end up as a landfall, however it would certainly be a close call if this solution were to occur. Certainly, it seems to me that we shouldn't just shrug Twelve off as a fish storm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 We now have Tropical Storm Karl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Correct me if I'm wrong... but from my limited understand the stronger the storm is now, the more northerly a course it will take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 3 hours ago, Tibet said: Correct me if I'm wrong... but from my limited understand the stronger the storm is now, the more northerly a course it will take? Yes, you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 15 hours ago, RubiksDestroyer said: The 12z model suites show a variety different solutions in the longer range, all of which are viable possibilities, and validate that TD Twelve needs to be watched. The GFS just seems to fail to develop Twelve any more than it already has, and opens the wave back up when it nears the Carribean, making it the weakest solution. Interestingly, the GFS track seems to be further south of most of the other model runs as well, which probably has some impact on how well the storm develops. The GFS seems to be an outlier in terms of not strengthening the storm any. All other model runs seem to show development begin to occur as Twelve moves into the Carribean. The main question at this point is that where- if at all- will Twelve slip through a crack in the block to its north? The CMC seems to do this early on, as the storm is over the eastern Carribean. After reviewing the model run, it seems to do this as a result of it strengthinging Julia as it's stalled off the coast, weakening the ridge. The NAVGEM and ECMWF models both seem to be in agreement on this not happening until later, however. The ECMWF, especially, seems to take this storm and develop it rapidly, as it approaches the US coast. It's not entirely clear to me if the ECMWF solution would end up as a landfall, however it would certainly be a close call if this solution were to occur. Certainly, it seems to me that we shouldn't just shrug Twelve off as a fish storm yet. Looks like the GFS caught onto the idea of developing into something more than an open wave as of 00z runs. Both the ECMWF and GFS look to be in a general consensus that it will start heading more NNW and track near Bermuda before taking on a NE trajectory. This would tend to be in agreement with some of the other tropical models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Looks like there's a pretty good consensus that a trough is gonna sweep this one up, up and away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 44 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Looks like there's a pretty good consensus that a trough is gonna sweep this one up, up and away Right now but still ways away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 A week to 10 days out is way to long of a lead time to be SURE of anything. Keep a passive eye on it over the next 3-5 days and see what modeling is showing at that time. If it still shows an OTS track, then that will add a lot more confidence to the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 some models showing Julia could still be lurking off the SE coast a week from now, as Karl moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 lol Karl and Julia combine off the east coast to form Superstorm "Karlulia" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Not the best news for those hoping for an East Coast landfall: 000 WTNT42 KNHC 162046 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016 Convection is quite strong in the northeastward quadrant of Karl, although the center has recently become exposed due to moderate-to-strong westerly shear. There has been little change to the overall satellite presentation in the past several hours, and the initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt. A continuation of the shear is forecast to keep Karl from strengthening much over the next day or two. This shear is forecast to relax by all of the models by early next week, and some strengthening should then take place while Karl moves over warmer waters. The amount of intensification is a big question mark, with the GFS/ECMWF now showing only a weaker tropical storm, while the rest of the standard intensity guidance (HWRF, GFDL, SHIPS and LGEM models) have Karl as a hurricane by the end of the period. Because of the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is kept the same as the previous one, not too far from the model consensus. The initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 280/12. Model guidance has made a large northward shift today due to the forecasted interaction of a mid/upper-level trough with Karl over the next few days. Initially, the tropical cyclone was expected to be on the western side of the trough, which would have helped steer the cyclone more to the west-southwest over the next couple of days. However, almost all of the guidance now show the trough staying to the west of Karl, which would impart a west or west-northwest motion during that time. The lack of a west-southwest track has large implications down the line, with the cyclone gaining a lot more latitude since Karl is closer to a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Continuity dictates that the NHC forecast not be shifted as much as the guidance suggests for this package, since the guidance could still shift back to the south. A large northward adjustment is made to the NHC forecast at all times, but it remains south of the model consensus and the ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 18.8N 35.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 19.0N 37.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 19.0N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 19.0N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 19.0N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 20.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 22.0N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 25.0N 60.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Some hurricane models shifted south with the track New CMC is also way west of 0z with a later recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Would be interesting if it made it under the ridge and could phase with the troff in the plains. However it looks doubtful since not a single model shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Tropical storm Karl finally showing a lot of organization, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH, as of Advisory 38A. It is near Bermuda (Bermuda's lat/lon is 32.3078° N, 64.7505° W) . It is forecast to pass Bermuda to the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted September 24, 2016 Share Posted September 24, 2016 Caught the last flight out of Bermuda to JFK this morning. Everyone was talking about Karl, but they are accustomed to much bigger storms there. It's a tiny island, but also probably one of the safest places to ride out a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.