Daniel Boone Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Jeff pointed out the recent pressure pattern of NA and believes that is the killer for the US cold odds for lr. If retrogression occurs as models indicate, that goa/western canada lp area will not be there but, further west. It s possible models are wrong or pressure pattern shifts west then back into same area. We shall see. 2005-6 featured a similar ssw/ pv displacement as is going on now in January that year and the pattern flipped to cold february. So, just curious to why you are leaning to a locked in pac. pattern Jeff ? Is it la nina, persistence in current longevity of pressure pattern or other ? Just curious to your rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Hello everyone. Hope everybody is doing well and had a good summer. This whole summer and fall has been extremely warm. I don't remember many years like this. I think finally our warm streak is coming to an end with more seasonal temps. At this point I'm more worried about getting a wetter pattern this winter than getting cold air. Numerous wildfires have been ongoing this week across the area. We need rain bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Current look at the wildfires going on. Stuff that we don't see very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/newlargeincidents.php?extent=conus# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 8, 2016 Author Share Posted November 8, 2016 Remarkable to see not even 0.01" on a 15 day run of the GFS.........We are not close to 2007 yet as that was really a 3 year drought but if this is the beginning of a 2-3 year drought like 2005-07 it will be ugly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 14 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Jeff pointed out the recent pressure pattern of NA and believes that is the killer for the US cold odds for lr. If retrogression occurs as models indicate, that goa/western canada lp area will not be there but, further west. It s possible models are wrong or pressure pattern shifts west then back into same area. We shall see. 2005-6 featured a similar ssw/ pv displacement as is going on now in January that year and the pattern flipped to cold february. So, just curious to why you are leaning to a locked in pac. pattern Jeff ? Is it la nina, persistence in current longevity of pressure pattern or other ? Just curious to your rational. I am mainly bearish November and early December. Chart I show is a mid-range indicator. Long range could still flip no problem. That said early SSW is not correlated to a cold winter. One looks for SSW assault to continue into December; then, correlation increases. I have some thoughts in the Winter thread. Fall looks to continue mild though I figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 9, 2016 Share Posted November 9, 2016 GEFS did a total flip flop with the MJO.Yesterday it was in Phase 1 headed into the COD,now look where it's at.Believe the Euro looks right,should be in the IO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 11, 2016 Share Posted November 11, 2016 The drought is expanding more into the lower OV.It's bad enough for our area but killing off the water vapor in that area makes it even more tougher for us to chip it away.We need some strong system,somehow to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Wow at that 00Z GFS run. Not only do we get hammered with heavy rain in about a week, the days that follow deliver this, flakes have been showing up off and on in this tame frame for several runs, but it went nuts on this one. I'd settle for the rain being true and call that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 This would be amazing if it can possibly come to pass over days 7-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 The amount of precip backed way off on the 12z today, the 06z was still very wet, it spun up a miller A and drenched us and buried the mountains under feet of snow. Big time cold coming on every run. 10-20 degrees below normal behind the big front coming in a week or so on it. Snow showers still showing up with the mountains getting hammered from around the 19th to the 22nd. Historically huge snow events can happen in late November, and the 20-23rd or so time frame has delivered two of the biggest snows in East Tennessee history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Tough to get moisture in when your in a drought.More solar radiation reduces water vapors,so we need a relative strong system to really produce and not to dampen fronts out.We need something like John is talking about on the GFS .But,like he said it's backing off.Seems the typical pattern we are in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Cold front that John has been talking about has virtually "evaporated" on today's GFS runs. The upper level support has trended much further to the north. This doesn't lead for much support for the cold front. There have been numerous brush fires this weekend and the situation is only getting worse. Literally throwing a cigarettes out car windows is starting fires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 The rain/precip is not looking robust on the GFS again today, maybe .5-.75 for the whole 16 days. The cold is coming though. A few warm days with SW winds ahead of frontal passages but for the most part cold, and pretty serious cold at that. Still popping a lot of 10 to 20 degrees below normal for the east with several passing shots of snow showery weather for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The rain/precip is not looking robust on the GFS again today, maybe .5-.75 for the whole 16 days. The cold is coming though. A few warm days with SW winds ahead of frontal passages but for the most part cold, and pretty serious cold at that. Still popping a lot of 10 to 20 degrees below normal for the east with several passing shots of snow showery weather for us. Yeah, does look like possible first flakes this coming weekend as gl moisture should get pulled down and upsloped behind ma/ne storm system. not unusual nor shocking nws makes no mention of this. Same every year with first flakes potential. As far as extended, Euro just doesn't want to lock in a -nao or cold pattern for the East although, I've not checked latest run. it may have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 The Canadian went a little kooky with a long duration snow shower event in some really cold air between 108-132 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 16, 2016 Share Posted November 16, 2016 enough sustained fetch off those boiling lake waters and that's actually possible. Thundersnow a likelihood in lees and possibly down this way; se ky, swva . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Drought expanded more into the lower OV.HRRR shows us hitting 81 which would tie the record high for today,it possibly could get broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 I am currently ready to leave the current weather pattern of the dry, no storms, no rain, no snow, extreme heat, ample smoke/fires, dead grass, fried garden variety. Looking forward to some cool weather this weekend and maybe seasonably cool/cold weather for December. Please don't tell me it won't happen, because my shrubs and bushes are going to die of thirst if they hear anything but good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Another week, another shot at a fantasy tenth of an inch of rain that won't happen. I'm sure, as an additional slap in the face, it'll get juuust cold enough to kill off my fall garden before torching again. 2016 just needs to end already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Liking those weeklies. Liking them a lot. Will post some about them tomorrow unless someone wants to go first. 500mb pattern looks good beginning days 14-21. 850s get cold days 21-46 if not earlier. Pattern is blocky. Step down pattern with Canada also going below normal at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Getting there. Looks like plenty of blocking and a -NAO by early December. Pacific flow continues into the West though, so the mild Chinook could bleed from the Plains all the way in here. Either way I think super warm will depart for a few weeks. Mid-December Euro tries to put more ridging in the West which would finally usher in the belows. CFS does not concur but it missed the upcoming, not as warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 There is some strange liquid falling from the sky this morning. Actually has lasted a good long while. More than I thought. A decent band of rain has FINALLY managed to set up here in the central and part of the northern E TN Valley! Very grateful for every drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I rec'd .16 in liquid gold this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Got around .2 this morning in a pretty good thunderstorm. Wish it'd been more, but hopefully it at least slowed the fires down a little bit and hopefully the rain Wednesday comes to pass as well. Looks like the pattern is waking up a little and we will have some chances of rain every 3-4 days for the next few weeks instead of basically nothing for 20-30 days. Models are spitting out around .5 to 1+ inch valley wide over the next 10 days. Doesn't sound like a lot, and it's not enough really but it's a lot better than it has been. Not much in the way of above average temps coming for the next 2 weeks either. Maybe a day or so with SW winds ahead of fronts, but generally pretty cold. The Canadian, which may be too cold, has some mid-upper 10s in the area several times as we head into late November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 picked up .22" here this morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 .01 rainfall total for CHA. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 GFS and other models are trying to amp up the moisture at least. Trough drops into the west and turns the flow southwest here. This gives plenty of moisture for systems to work with. 00z also has a Miller A develop and bring snow to the area in a little over a week or so, not a lot of snow due to time of year, but the NW side of the storm dropped an inch or two in middle Tennessee in that run. We've changed the hot pattern, stepped down into normal or below normal temps. The shake up to the drought pattern would be a big next step. The GFS is showing 3-6 inches of rain over the Valley over the next 2 weeks and the Canadian really dumps on the southern Valley/North Georgia with the big system around day 7-8. Showing 4-6 inches of rain over that area and western NC with around 1-2 inches over the Chattanooga area. There's another big precip maker inbound at the end of it's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 22, 2016 Share Posted November 22, 2016 Chance for a few strong storms with that shear being shown ,the first of next week,Monday by the looks right now.Instability looks weak right now.just a narrow ribbon of showalter.Like the disco this afternoon from OHX said,it wont take much to get some severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted November 23, 2016 Share Posted November 23, 2016 Finally starting to get excited about some the chances of getting real liquid next week... Also liking seeing the 540 in the last couple of GFS runs going south of the southern TN border. 06Z even has some light precip falling through in the wake of next weeks storm with the 540 well south nearing the GOM. Surface of course too warm, but it starts to get me in the winter mood to see those type of model depictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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