Fall 2016

[Met1985]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 10.31.16 0z Para Euro EPS supports a very cold second half of November.  Maue has a screenshot on Twitter though I did actually look at the model itself.  Weeklies at 2m are warmer than last Tuesday.  Though at 500 they look decent.   The GEFS is also showing some pretty decent cold at LR.  Still an argument could be made that it does not happen.  However, climo...teleconnections...add in some model support...looks like a cool down is finally on the way for the second half of November.  The strength of the cool down can be debated for sure.  But man, sure will feel nice.  I need an end to endless summer.  But a switch to cooler than normal temps (even if just slight) will be a big change.  I am ready to fire-up my woodstove.  Right now I am running my AC!!! 

I'll tell yeah if the indices line up like they should and we get no cold air then we are doomed the rest of the winter lol.

[jaxjagman]

31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 10.31.16 0z Para Euro EPS supports a very cold second half of November.  Maue has a screenshot on Twitter though I did actually look at the model itself.  Weeklies at 2m are warmer than last Tuesday.  Though at 500 they look decent.   The GEFS is also showing some pretty decent cold at LR.  Still an argument could be made that it does not happen.  However, climo...teleconnections...add in some model support...looks like a cool down is finally on the way for the second half of November.  The strength of the cool down can be debated for sure.  But man, sure will feel nice.  I need an end to endless summer.  But a switch to cooler than normal temps (even if just slight) will be a big change.  I am ready to fire-up my woodstove.  Right now I am running my AC!!! 

I sure hope that is right than the one i looked at Carver,the one RM posted.Looks more zonal with an occasional -PNA at times with a SER ,the 2nd half of Nov

[Carvers Gap]

8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

I sure hope that is right than the one i looked at Carver,the one RM posted.Looks more zonal with an occasional -PNA at times with a SER ,the 2nd half of Nov

Parallel looked cold to me.  500 and 2m temps looked good.  We will see today how it looks,  The 0z EPS ensemble looks cooler than normal at day 10 as does the GEM.  I think we at least return to a period of normal temps mid-month, possible below.  How much so is debatable...

[Carvers Gap]

To clarify...the parallel I am referencing is the weeklies and not the operational.  Sorry for any confusion.

[nrgjeff]

Euro weeklies and CFS both show a cold push end of next week. Euro drags out the 500 mb pattern longer but the CFS moves it along. Both models show quite a warm surface for such a 500 mb pattern. Looked at a pressure anomaly chart, high Siberia low China, and sure enough the first cold core dump went into China. However I'm probably making it too complicated.

North American surface chart from Unisys Wx or anywhere tells the story. Canada and Alaska temperatures are way above normal. The airmass is not there for the pattern flip. Might take a few sustained weeks, to build snow over Canada and work through all that mild air. Keep the shorts out for Thanksgiving! 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Euro weeklies and CFS both show a cold push end of next week. Euro drags out the 500 mb pattern longer but the CFS moves it along. Both models show quite a warm surface for such a 500 mb pattern. Looked at a pressure anomaly chart, high Siberia low China, and sure enough the first cold core dump went into China. However I'm probably making it too complicated.

North American surface chart from Unisys Wx or anywhere tells the story. Canada and Alaska temperatures are way above normal. The airmass is not there for the pattern flip. Might take a few sustained weeks, to build snow over Canada and work through all that mild air. Keep the shorts out for Thanksgiving! 

Jeff.  What do u make of the parallel EPS 46 day looking progressively colder with each week after the run's midpoint?  It looks much like you have been describing for weeks - if I am putting words in your mouth please let me know.  But it goes to a 500 mb that should be cold, but the source region is mild.  Over time North America cools as the western ridge amplifies.  Temps move to normal.  Eventually, the ridge connects over top and some seasonal cold air is dumped into the nation's mid-section and presses eastward.  But the 2m temps eventually get pretty cold west of the Apps.  Maybe weeks 3.5 - 6 if I am remembering correctly.  Even the 12z EPS is showing a decent 500 mb days 10-15.  It is normalish temp wise... Man, I just need some days cold enough to fire-up the wood stove.  As you say, tough to get anything winter weather wise in the valleys before mid Dec...even at TRI.

[Stovepipe]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jeff.  What do u make of the parallel EPS 46 day looking progressively colder with each week after the run's midpoint?  It looks much like you have been describing for weeks - if I am putting words in your mouth please let me know.  But it goes to a 500 mb that should be cold, but the source region is mild.  Over time North America cools as the western ridge amplifies.  Temps move to normal.  Eventually, the ridge connects over top and some seasonal cold air is dumped into the nation's mid-section and presses eastward.  But the 2m temps eventually get pretty cold west of the Apps.  Maybe weeks 3.5 - 6 if I am remembering correctly.  Even the 12z EPS is showing a decent 500 mb days 10-15.  It is normalish temp wise... Man, I just need some days cold enough to fire-up the wood stove.  As you say, tough to get anything winter weather wise in the valleys before mid Dec...even at TRI.

GFS is suggesting upper 30s within the next 7 days, time for a test fire son!

[Stovepipe]

Well, it's another Thursday and another chance of a tenth of an inch of rain at TYS.  What is this, like the 4th week in a row?  It won't be enough to settle the dust, much less put out a fire.  I'm so sick of this awful pattern we've been stuck in. 

[Coach B]

On 11/1/2016 at 2:29 PM, Carvers Gap said:

 Man, I just need some days cold enough to fire-up the wood stove.  As you say, tough to get anything winter weather wise in the valleys before mid Dec...even at TRI.

I hear you on the woodstove. I've never waited this late to fire it up. I also don't think I've ever run the AC this late. Had to turn it back on to cool the upstairs bedrooms the last few nights. The temp inversion was working against me up on the hill. I've been stuck in the lower 70s in the evenings while the lower elevations are dropping thru the 60s and into the 50s by daybreak. Trying to enjoy it because I'm sure we've got plenty of cold and dreary on the way at some point. 

[jaxjagman]

October has not been this warm in Nashville in nearly 70 years.

1. 1919 Warmest October on record
2. 1947
3. 1941
4. 2016
5. 1882

The temperature for October averaged 7.4 degrees above normal. The
average high was 80.5 degrees and the average low was 54.9
degrees. The warmest temperature was 91 degrees on the 19th and
the coolest was 40 degrees on the 23rd.

The 91 degrees on October 19th is the latest in the year that a
90 degree temperature has been recorded in Nashville. Previously
the latest was October 10th 1980.

There has been 87 days this year in which the temperature reached
or exceeded 90 degrees in Nashville. This is the second most ever,
surpassed only by 96 in 1954.

A daily record was broken on the 19th when the temperature reached
91 degrees breaking the old record of 89 set in 2005.

A daily record was broken on the 29th when the temperature reached
86 degrees breaking the old record of 83 set in 1950.

A daily record was tied on the 31st when the temperature reached
85 degrees tying the record for the date set in 1950.

Rainfall totaled 0.43 inch which is 2.61 inches below normal. The
greatest rainfall during a 24 hour period was 0.36 inch on 20th
and 21st. No rainfall records were set or tied in October.

Rainfall since January 1st has totaled 33.92 inches which is 4.78
inches below normal through October.

The average wind speed was 6.0 miles an hour. The fastest gust was
31 miles an hour from the north on the 8th and 31 miles an hour
from the northwest on 20th.

There was one day with a thunderstorm.

There were 8 days with fog; no days with dense fog.http://www.weather.gov/ohx/warmoctober

[John1122]

The GFS has been fairly consistent in opening the GOM next Friday. All we can do is hope it finally happens and suck down smoke until it does.

[Carvers Gap]

GEFS looks chilly after day 10.   The EPS looks chilly after day 10 as well.  2m temps lag as the source region in northern Canada is not super cold and the Pacific is still flooding western NA with maritime air.  At 500, the pattern looks excellent.  Most models show a progression towards cold as the ridge tries to connect across the top.  Each days model runs sees a lot of variability in the jet placement at LR.  The GEM (control?) drops a trough out West.  Seems like we see variability with solutions often as the pattern shakes up.  And it does look like a pattern change, maybe to normal-ish or even cool for a period.  A mean trough over the US sets up.  I guess questions that remain are...

1.  Can it actually get cold?  Does the pattern hold long enough to tap cold in Siberia?

2.  Will a trough in the East (even if if just normal-ish) help bring the SE rain?

3.  What does a remarkably early PV split over the pole mean for the rest of the season?  I have seen some info on other sub forums that imply it returns in a weaker form when compared to previous winters where it was wrapped up tightly and would not split...

4.  Is this the end of the Nino hear in NA, or does the hangover continue?

5.  For you Jeff!  Do we get severe wx in late Nov/Dec?

[dwagner88]

There is a 3000 acre fire near the GA/TN state line in the Cherokee National Forest. I tried to take a picture of the smoke plume on Tuesday, but it was actually too large to fit in the frame. Red flag warning was in place for that area today. This dry frontal passage definitely isn't going to help. Surprisingly, Parksville lake is still being held at close to full pool. I guess there are enough reservoirs upstream of it to keep it filled despite the total lack of precip since the end of September. 

[whamby]

4 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

There is a 3000 acre fire near the GA/TN state line in the Cherokee National Forest. I tried to take a picture of the smoke plume on Tuesday, but it was actually too large to fit in the frame. Red flag warning was in place for that area today. This dry frontal passage definitely isn't going to help. Surprisingly, Parksville lake is still being held at close to full pool. I guess there are enough reservoirs upstream of it to keep it filled despite the total lack of precip since the end of September. 

that sucks... great hiking area.

[John1122]

GFS op and it's ensembles are in major disagreement at 500mb. Ensembles look great in the extended with a big +PNA in place over the pacific into Alaska. OP has -PNA in place with low heights over the Gulf of Alaska and the Pac NW through late run.  That ens run has great blocking in place in the NAO region too.

 

 

 

[whamby]

The Op looked like it's trying to form a gulf low/rainstorm in about a week... I'm just rooting for that to validate at this point. 

[Carvers Gap]

John1122.  The GEFS has for several runs made every attempt to remove the extreme heat from NA other than Alaska and somewhere near east of the Hudson.  The EPS was similar in nature.  So, at least we may have a moderating trend relative to norms.  The cold is now to about day 10-12 depending on which ensemble you look at.  Still, a lot of questions...but nice trends.  

[Carvers Gap]

Weeklies are warm, but not near as warm as what we have just experienced.  Closer to normal.  But if they verify, those cold starts to winter are toast.  That said, the weeklies have been all over the place...usually they are money.  All of this variability in modeling seems to signify that we are getting ready to see a shake-up.  The EPS and GEFS are inroically showing some cold where the old weeklies had it.  This may just be one of those winters where the cold sets up in Siberia and does not budge.  I suspect the Nina will have a say, but a warm(record setting?) fall w a Nina is not common as I understand it.  May be in uncharted territory.  Hey, where is Mr. Bob?  Been a while, man.  

[tnweathernut]

All I can say for sure is I'd rather have a terrible PAC flooding the western US and Canada with warmth and a terrible looking Atlantic in November.  Lots of time to go until December, but having this look now is more comforting to me than having it on December 4th.  

[nrgjeff]

Looks warm through Thanksgiving, possibly Christmas. Much of my reasoning is the same as earlier in this thread, and my last post of the Winter thread (attm).

First, Siberia is not working for a cold eastern NA. High press is all over central Siberia but eastern Siberia has low pressure. It is not moving toward the Aleutians. Therefore, it is just creating a strong Pacific jet stream. Figure the flood of mild air will continue into the West and Central US.

A 500 mb trough is forecast for the Southeast before Thanksgiving, but it lifts out by Thanksgiving. Being transient, we do not have enough time to build a cold pattern and southern Canada snowpack will not build enough.

PV is trying to split. Early Strato attack gives hope for colder weather later in the winter. If we cannot get a tropical pattern driver the cold may be after Christmas. MJO looks to perk up, but may then die before reaching cold zones. OK by me; usually the South does not get good until January.

I might warm up my cool December; but, this is only the fall thread...

Regarding severe, I would think Deep South Gulf / Coast more than here Nov/Dec. However I am not sure the right kind of open waves are forecast. Maybe we can do a pool on the next time Chattanooga receives more than .10" rain. Martin Luther King Day?

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks warm through Thanksgiving, possibly Christmas.

 

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Weeklies are warm, but not near as warm as what we have just experienced.  Closer to normal.  But if they verify, those cold starts to winter are toast.  That said, the weeklies have been all over the place...usually they are money.  All of this variability in modeling seems to signify that we are getting ready to see a shake-up. 

Maybe all we are going to see from the shake up is closer to normal temps. That would go along with what Jeff has been saying about all of the leftover heat from the nino. I'm a heart of winter guy anyway. Give me three weeks of serious cold and snow in January/February and I'm good!

If you want some good news I found this on the main board from met billg:

"The numbers for Snow Cover Extent at the end of October are in at the Rutgers Global Snow Lab...finished 3rd behind 1976 and 2014, and is in a virtual tie with 2002. All of those following winters were severe in the East in one way other another"  

All three of those years had some real cold in January and/or February in our neck of the woods as well. 

[John1122]

That really nice rain shot for late week is dust in the wind it seems. Temps step down to normal or below normal though. The GFES has days 4-8 as BN here, days 8-12 BN, days 10-14 BN and 12-16 BN. 

[whamby]

18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That really nice rain shot for late week is dust in the wind it seems. Temps step down to normal or below normal though. The GFES has days 4-8 as BN here, days 8-12 BN, days 10-14 BN and 12-16 BN. 

I was beggin' the appropriate rain gods.. .apparently it didn't work. But there's definitely a shake up in the pattern, so hopefully that will translate into an at least slightly wetter pattern. 

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, whamby said:

I was beggin' the appropriate rain gods.. .apparently it didn't work. But there's definitely a shake up in the pattern, so hopefully that will translate into an at least slightly wetter pattern. 

We are dry here north of Nashville, I cannot imagine what it must be like south and east of here. I know 2007 was dry but it has been a long time since I have seen it this dry and I really do not see any good rain in the next two weeks. Anyone else?

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting to see the operational models and their ensembles move to where the weeklies were before they moved to the warmer look.  GEFS and EPS have been showing a return to normal with BN(as John states) on the table.  Some models have actually moved-up that time table.

[Daniel Boone]

lr Models having trouble with the rather complex pattern. suspect enso being main lr factored in player. prob. pna second and ao third. Don't know if persistence is although, it is with lr forecasters.

[Stovepipe]

GFS again (5th week in a row?) teasing .25 to .40 for TYS end of the work week.  Let's just say I'm not getting my hopes up lol.

This afternoon my neighbor thought it was a great idea to rake up all his leaves and have a bonfire...  

 

[nrgjeff]

Siberian snow is at impressive levels, but we have a problem for delivering cold to the USA. All of October we had the favorable high press north of 60N and lower than normal press south of 60N into Asia and China. However November starts with a deal killer for the USA. Pressure anomaly chart is below.

Lower than normal pressure is observed from eastern Siberia into Alaska. High press in central Russia helped the cold signal verify for China and parts of Europe. Pacific Jet remains robust, screaming through North China and Korea out to sea. In past years eastern Siberia low press worked out for cold USA, but Alaska/western Canada had high press. This year low press goes deep into western Canada. USA may have to wait until next time. So I still think 500 mb heights go below normal in the Southeast, but it will be transient. Southern Canada lacks the snow for cold air delivery (Rutgers, not pictured). 

OK deal killer is a little strong. Nobody can be sure. However odds favor a whiff on any new cold pattern in November.

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Siberian snow is at impressive levels, but we have a problem for delivering cold to the USA. All of October we had the favorable high press north of 60N and lower than normal press south of 60N into Asia and China. However November starts with a deal killer for the USA. Pressure anomaly chart is below.

Lower than normal pressure is observed from eastern Siberia into Alaska. High press in central Russia helped the cold signal verify for China and parts of Europe. Pacific Jet remains robust, screaming through North China and Korea out to sea. In past years eastern Siberia low press worked out for cold USA, but Alaska/western Canada had high press. This year low press goes deep into western Canada. USA may have to wait until next time. So I still think 500 mb heights go below normal in the Southeast, but it will be transient. Southern Canada lacks the snow for cold air delivery (Rutgers, not pictured). 

OK deal killer is a little strong. Nobody can be sure. However odds favor a whiff on any new cold pattern in November.

Yeah things need to start really changing around for even December to be at a normal state. to me things are in and out. the Pac jet is just killing anything for us. This might be another horrific winter  unless things really change around.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS looks decent at 850 and 500 for days 8-15.  Even had some mtn snow at the highest elevations late in the period - TIFWIW at that range.  It continues to move the pattern forward.  Looks to me like things are going to be seasonal if not cool.  The good thing is it continues along w the GEFS to scour the extreme above normal temps from Canada.  On some GEFS runs it wants to dump the cold out West as does the GEM ensemble.  I think we break the extreme temp pattern very soon.  However, the drought will persist though some moisture is beginning to show on the medium and LR.  For me I am more concerned about dry weather as we almost always have chances for cold.  How long does the cooler/seasonal wx last? I don't know.  Like Jeff said the pattern at very high latitudes is blocking any cold transfer from Siberia.  I will take seasonal with a degree either way and be happy.  Jeff, you have had some great write-ups this fall.  Keep them coming.  They are much appreciated.