jaxjagman Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Not sure yet if the barn caught on fire this afternoon or if someone set the fire in the woods that burned the barn.Either way it's been dry here as well,don't take much to make things escalate quickly.Good chance of rain around here tomorrow.Not sure we'll see much of anything the rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 Euro is showing some signs of life,still in the COD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted October 21, 2016 Share Posted October 21, 2016 Peaked at 89 this afternoon, expecting nearly a 50 degree swing by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Been watching what's going on in East Asia as the weeklies are hinting at some colder air,possibly some good storms.The weeklies have been showing the last few runs a colder air mass intrusion around the middle of the week 2 of Nov. time frame, with the 850's going all the way into the deep south with its last run.The Euro today ,though it's long range showed the heights rising into China/Mongolia,with falling heights in Korea/Japan.This also has support from the CFS weeklies.PNA is being shown into + during this time .The 4th map is from my overlay map what it could look like using the East Asia rule,positive PNA with a trough extending into the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 @Jax.... I read that the EPS at 0z looked cold in the LR. Middle of November has looked like a good beginning point for cold wx. Hopefully we can reel-in that time frame. Eventually this hot pattern has to end, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: @Jax.... I read that the EPS at 0z looked cold in the LR. Middle of November has looked like a good beginning point for cold wx. Hopefully we can reel-in that time frame. Eventually this hot pattern has to end, right? Be interesting to see what the weeklies show tonight.It's not a full split, but it's being shown to take a beating these next coming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Euro weeklies are out. Temps turn pretty cold during week 4, but heights drop sometime during week 2/3. So, either the temps are lagging in response to height anomalies at 500 or potentially temps could turn colder a bit quicker. By week 4, that would appear to be a winter-like pattern and not fall. So, one would think things flip between week 3 and 4. For those new to the forum or lurking, that is not necessarily reality. It is simply one long range model's depiction of what "could" happen. The weeklies have been pretty decent during the past few winters, but certainly not infallible. Jeff and Jax, jump in there if you see that differently or want to add to the discussion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Just a quick look at the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS ensembles, both show heights dropping over the East and temps responding to varying degrees depending on the model. At the very least, looks like we may return to normal temps in a couple of weeks...with a winter-type pattern developing late in November. Man, if that is not climo...I don't know what is. I do realize the summer has been anything but that...However, winter showing-up around Dec 1 is textbook. That will be a shock to the system given the extended summer we are experiencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Just a quick look at the 0z EPS and 6z GEFS ensembles, both show heights dropping over the East and temps responding to varying degrees depending on the model. At the very least, looks like we may return to normal temps in a couple of weeks...with a winter-type pattern developing late in November. Man, if that is not climo...I don't know what is. I do realize the summer has been anything but that...However, winter showing-up around Dec 1 is textbook. You know what wasn't "textbook", last December........ lol. I wonder if anyone has the statistics for the last 5 Decembers. I am guessing they are all at or above normal. A few December stats from last year that were beyond amazing: In the US there were 5,215 daily records broken and 6,766 warm daily record lows (noaa/ncei) New York's Central Park failed to drop to freezing the entire month. Bob Henson (Weather Underground) "they've gotten down to 32 degrees or colder at least six times every December since records began in 1871" (weather.com) Paducah's December 2015's mean temperature was an incredible 11.4 degrees above average. (weather.com) Knoxville, TN recorded SEVEN 70 degree days. The most in recorded history, only behind 6 in 1984 and 1982. (weather.com) I could go on and on about the warmth last year. The statistics are abundant. Hoping we can get back to a more "normal" December. Throw in a chance for snow and I will be a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 I found myself enjoying last December. I don't know if its because of getting older or the fact that extended fall weather into November and December is conducive to farm/outdoor work. October has been my favorite month for years. Whatever the reason, I've found myself cheering on the sunny, dry, and mild weather til the first of the year. At that point I want the winter hounds unleashed in full force for January and Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 35 minutes ago, Coach B said: I found myself enjoying last December. I don't know if its because of getting older or the fact that extended fall weather into November and December is conducive to farm/outdoor work. October has been my favorite month for years. Whatever the reason, I've found myself cheering on the sunny, dry, and mild weather til the first of the year. At that point I want the winter hounds unleashed in full force for January and Feb. I have to admit I also enjoyed it. Getting out and doing things right up to the end of the year is quite a bit of fun, especially with younger kids. Staying cooped up in the house for months on end gets old fast. Luckily we live in the south, so there are quite a few breaks typically. I do enjoy a chance at snow around the holidays though. On topic, we have been enjoying an awesome fall in my neck of the woods (although absent rain which we need badly). Afternoons have been warm and nights/mornings crisp. About perfect for a variety of activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 Euro weekly 500 mb surface disconnect is likely for two reasons, well maybe more I am missing. First it will take a few weeks of consecutive cold fronts to really break the warm trend. Look at this past weekend, and now highs hitting the mid-80s this week. Process could take even longer early season until Canada builds up snow closer to the USA. Keep in mind the cold January last winter took weeks to develop, in the dead of winter not fall. Also the 500 mb may be responding to the polar vortex while lower levels experience model inertia. While it is somewhat an extension of the first reason, one also cannot guarantee the PV split. Levels farther away from the PV will respond less until things get going. Model may not be human but computer programs hedge too. Then there is always a chance of a 2009/2013 (among others) whiff where an early season PV split was followed by a nada November. Finally a relentless zonal flow in the North Pac, SSTs be dammed, is not a cold signal. Paint me a skeptic. Tough to get good winter weather in here before December 15 anyway; so, might as well be warm through early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 At this point I don't care about temps one bit, I just want the moisture. The drought is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 I don't know about the rest of the southeast, but Decembers have been unusually warm in Atlanta ever since 2011. Pretty much every December since then has been 5+ above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rbowman Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Hang around. December in a La Nina pattern is usually cold. We'll just have to see how much influence this has this year.Sent from my LG-H901 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Drought monitor expands every week in the SE and Tn Valley,we got a few sprinkles this morning.Still looks like a shot of moisture maybe,towards the end of next week,we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Newest weeklies show a transition to a colder pattern. Weeks 4,5, and 6 --> Normal, cooler, cold. Moderation at the very end of the run. A sprawling center of cold is eventually centered over the Ohio Valley. Heights fall during week 3 but it takes about a week or two for temps to respond - it appears. By the end of the six week time frame, four cold air masses are symmetrically laid out across the globe...western Europe, southeast Canada/northeastern US, Bering Sea, Siberia. If you like winter wx, the TN Valley is at the front entry point of the eastern trough. Not ideal, but hey, at least it won't be hot!!!! It also, as Jeff pointed out about Tuesday's weeklies, appears that plenty of Pacific air is going to attempt to flood the continent during weeks 1-3 which blunts attempts by the atmosphere to get cold in the East. Interesting look. -NAO present throughout. However, the block moves and shifts north after being over the Davis Straights. That allows for the trough at the end of the period to lift northward a bit. Who knows if it verifies... However, if blocking gets established models have a tendency to end the pattern too quickly. Good signal considering it is this far out. For those of you who have access to the weeklies, feel free to add or subtract to what was said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Just glancing at this morning's 0z EPS, Both the control and the mean show fairly strong blocking with an omega type look. Before getting too excited, the trough axis is centered in eastern Canada. So, picture in your mind a trough over North America that is often centered over the Ohio Valley...and then pivot it big time towards eastern Canada. The omega look is much like a ball player with his hat slid to one side, Almost looks like an East based -NAO...We want the positive heights over the Davis Straights. It would certainly provide northwest flow, but us Jeff has mentioned, the Pacific is flooding western Canada with maritime air. Still, hard not to like seeing blocking as it might show at another point during the winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Just glancing at this morning's 0z EPS, Both the control and the mean show fairly strong blocking with an omega type look. Before getting too excited, the trough axis is centered in eastern Canada. So, picture in your mind a trough over North America that is often centered over the Ohio Valley...and then pivot it big time towards eastern Canada. The omega look is much like a ball player with his hat slid to one side, Almost looks like an East based -NAO...We want the positive heights over the Davis Straights. It would certainly provide northwest flow, but us Jeff has mentioned, the Pacific is flooding western Canada with maritime air. Still, hard not to like seeing blocking as it might show at another point during the winter season. The indices look great but I think this is a minor blip in this horrendous pattern. I just don't like the look for November and all these changes are a month away. This pattern change could all collapse and I think it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 9 hours ago, Met1985 said: The indices look great but I think this is a minor blip in this horrendous pattern. I just don't like the look for November and all these changes are a month away. This pattern change could all collapse and I think it will. Yeah, I don't think many decent followers of wx would hang their hats on guidance one month out or much less one week out. Until the Pacific cooperates, it could be tough. The GEFS at 12z does show a cool down after day 10 w below normal as does the Euro OP just before day 10. How long that hold is anybody's guess. As Jeff has said in a couple of posts, tough to get snow in the valleys this early in the season. But I will add that the weeklies have been decent(as I noted earlier...no infallible) during the past several winters. Honestly, what catches my attention is that they are usually warm in the LR. This terrible pattern does have to end, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, I don't think many decent followers of wx would hang their hats on guidance one month out or much less one week out. Until the Pacific cooperates, it could be tough. The GEFS at 12z does show a cool down after day 10 w below normal as does the Euro OP just before day 10. How long that hold is anybody's guess. As Jeff has said in a couple of posts, tough to get snow in the valleys this early in the season. But I will add that the weeklies have been decent(as I noted earlier...no infallible) during the past several winters. Honestly, what catches my attention is that they are usually warm in the LR. This terrible pattern does have to end, right? Lol you would assume a year long horrible pattern would end sometime right? lol I am mostly being pessimistic this season because the Pac NW just looks so horrendous. Even with a negative ao and nao we still cannot get a decent pattern because the pac is just screaming into Canada . Although we can only really see into the first week in November . The weeklies have been decent yes and it's good to see some cool downs in the mid to long range. I will be paying attention to the indices and the wpo and epo. The Pac sure can screw up a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Weather Underground wants to bump CHA to 85 on 11/1, which would be an all time Nov record high, but they're usually a degree or two off at this range. NWS has us at 84, which would tie the monthly record. We'll see. Still, the sheer number of consecutive 80+ degree highs this time of year is once in a lifetime type weather. I hate it, but it's happening nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 8 hours ago, whamby said: Weather Underground wants to bump CHA to 85 on 11/1, which would be an all time Nov record high, but they're usually a degree or two off at this range. NWS has us at 84, which would tie the monthly record. We'll see. Still, the sheer number of consecutive 80+ degree highs this time of year is once in a lifetime type weather. I hate it, but it's happening nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Nashville hit 84 today and broke the record of 83 set back in 1950 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Euro Closes off the H5 in the Mo./Valley and it sweeps through the Tn/Valley next week on this afternoons run.It would be our best shot of rain we've seen in quite some time,nothing severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Euro the last couple days is showing the MJO coming to life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 I think the models are slowly catching onto the pattern change coming up in November . Both the GFS and Euro are showing positive signs into the second week in November . The indices continue to look positive . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 1 hour ago, jaxjagman said: Looks even better today Yeah the indices look the best iv seen in years really .Especially the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 With the teleconnections going +PNA/-AO/-NAO it would seem something will have to give soon in the Eastern U.S. That should spell a step down into the cold side of fall. There's a good bit of below normal predicted for the East and South in the GFS beyond hour 120. Later on it builds insane cold over Greenland. I'm talking -60 to -70 degree 2m temps there. It has -30s in Siberia. There's cold air to be tapped in the Northern Hemisphere and with those teleconnections I could see a very cold second half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 2 hours ago, John1122 said: With the teleconnections going +PNA/-AO/-NAO it would seem something will have to give soon in the Eastern U.S. That should spell a step down into the cold side of fall. There's a good bit of below normal predicted for the East and South in the GFS beyond hour 120. Later on it builds insane cold over Greenland. I'm talking -60 to -70 degree 2m temps there. It has -30s in Siberia. There's cold air to be tapped in the Northern Hemisphere and with those teleconnections I could see a very cold second half of November. The 10.31.16 0z Para Euro EPS supports a very cold second half of November. Maue has a screenshot on Twitter though I did actually look at the model itself. Weeklies at 2m are warmer than last Tuesday. Though at 500 they look decent. The GEFS is also showing some pretty decent cold at LR. Still an argument could be made that it does not happen. However, climo...teleconnections...add in some model support...looks like a cool down is finally on the way for the second half of November. The strength of the cool down can be debated for sure. But man, sure will feel nice. I need an end to endless summer. But a switch to cooler than normal temps (even if just slight) will be a big change. I am ready to fire-up my woodstove. Right now I am running my AC!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.