weathafella Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Gains today. yesterday vs today. In any case-we're close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 My favorite thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Yes. Here's to a good winter start to finish for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 A little too early for me for watching snow. The SAI (Snow Advance Index) targets Eurasian snow advance south of 60N during month of October--or is it weeks 40-44, which is October 7th-November 4th? I forget exactly which. So too much snow advance before then would not be in cold/snow lovers' favor. What does intrigue me right now is Arctic sea ice extent, which bottomed out a few days ago and whose minimum was second lowest on record. Could be pointing toward big Siberian snow advances when we want them, especially with the ice extent near the Barents/Kara seas below average. I wonder though if the minimum occurring earlier than usual and sea ice extent already recovering could throw a bit of a wrench in the works? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 14, 2016 Author Share Posted September 14, 2016 6 hours ago, billgwx said: A little too early for me for watching snow. The SAI (Snow Advance Index) targets Eurasian snow advance south of 60N during month of October--or is it weeks 40-44, which is October 7th-November 4th? I forget exactly which. So too much snow advance before then would not be in cold/snow lovers' favor. What does intrigue me right now is Arctic sea ice extent, which bottomed out a few days ago and whose minimum was second lowest on record. Could be pointing toward big Siberian snow advances when we want them, especially with the ice extent near the Barents/Kara seas below average. I wonder though if the minimum occurring earlier than usual and sea ice extent already recovering could throw a bit of a wrench in the works? I typically make the decision to start the thread when ice has passed the minimum. Snow will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Gotcha. See you in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Thanks for starting this thread, Jerry. It will be fascinating to see how things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 On 9/13/2016 at 1:36 PM, billgwx said: A little too early for me for watching snow. The SAI (Snow Advance Index) targets Eurasian snow advance south of 60N during month of October--or is it weeks 40-44, which is October 7th-November 4th? I forget exactly which. So too much snow advance before then would not be in cold/snow lovers' favor. What does intrigue me right now is Arctic sea ice extent, which bottomed out a few days ago and whose minimum was second lowest on record. Could be pointing toward big Siberian snow advances when we want them, especially with the ice extent near the Barents/Kara seas below average. I wonder though if the minimum occurring earlier than usual and sea ice extent already recovering could throw a bit of a wrench in the works? The earliest sea ice min on record, by far. Likely the result of a strong upper level cyclone, but wow this is impressive and significant - because we've reversed that positive feedback process a week earlier than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 On 9/15/2016 at 3:15 PM, OKpowdah said: The earliest sea ice min on record, by far. Likely the result of a strong upper level cyclone, but wow this is impressive and significant - because we've reversed that positive feedback process a week earlier than normal also the "slush pool" in the central arctic basin being vulnerable to a quick refreeze 9/4 near the min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2016 Author Share Posted September 17, 2016 On September 12, 2016 at 10:09 PM, weathafella said: Gains today. yesterday vs today. In any case-we're close enough. 4 days after the thread started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Nice breakdown by region forky! Where did you find them? Can we see them for years prior? From my understanding, the regions off Eurasia are the more important ones as far as precursor signal for Eurasian snow cover extent/advance next month and mean wintertime AO. The Barents/Kara/East Siberian Seas all look in prime shape, but is the Laptev Sea not playing nice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 graphs taken from: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.0.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 Way to go Putin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 28, 2016 Share Posted September 28, 2016 The euro over the next 10 days shows a huge block in the Kola Peninsula area, leading to remarkable snow and cold east of the Urals, even below 60 north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2016 Author Share Posted October 2, 2016 A lot of quick pickup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 2, 2016 Share Posted October 2, 2016 Wow--snow cover extent in Siberia so far is running way ahead of 2015. And too much too early south of 60N is not necessarily a good thing for winter cold/snow lovers. The Snow Advance Index (SAI), which correlates with mean wintertime AO better than total Snow Cover Extent (SCE), measures Eurasian snow advance S of 60N during weeks 40-44, which begins October 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 3, 2016 Author Share Posted October 3, 2016 I think it's transient still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Voodoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted October 3, 2016 Share Posted October 3, 2016 Yes we have time to see if transient. In the meantime the above is a special form of voodoo known as statistical correlation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 9, 2016 Share Posted October 9, 2016 '' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Nice one stop shop page for snowcover - http://www.frontierweather.com/snowicepage.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 15, 2016 Share Posted October 15, 2016 It appears HM's still riding the +qbo, la nina mild winter train. hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 6 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: It appears HM's still riding the +qbo, la nina mild winter train. hm winter of 13-14 HM did the same thing ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 On 10/16/2016 at 4:28 PM, Angrysummons said: It will have its fun, but it will also have its breaks. ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 On 10/15/2016 at 6:53 PM, Daniel Boone said: It appears HM's still riding the +qbo, la nina mild winter train. hm On 10/16/2016 at 1:11 AM, DTWXRISK said: winter of 13-14 HM did the same thing ... I'm not sure where you are getting the words to put in HM's mouth, but his own research suggests the opposite. La Nina forcing with +QBO = cold http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html As for 13-14, I vividly recall in October he was concerned for warmth, as were a lot of us, because the PDO looked like it was turning sharply neg, until the "blob" came back and he reversed course in Novy. Also, As that research above shows, the QBO/Aleutian high relationship works best when the Nina forcing is stronger, which we didnt have going into the witner so it was a concern. The NE Pac seemed to help bail us out that winter big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 If you guy's were referring to this tweet of his, you should know he is talking about the UK and not the U.S.!! https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/780113401381019648 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 1 hour ago, NJwinter23 said: I'm not sure where you are getting the words to put in HM's mouth, but his own research suggests the opposite. La Nina forcing with +QBO = cold http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html As for 13-14, I vividly recall in October he was concerned for warmth, as were a lot of us, because the PDO looked like it was turning sharply neg, until the "blob" came back and he reversed course in Novy. Also, As that research above shows, the QBO/Aleutian high relationship works best when the Nina forcing is stronger, which we didnt have going into the witner so it was a concern. The NE Pac seemed to help bail us out that winter big time. Just to add, Nina forcing/+QBO couplet doesn't necessarily result in cold by itself, as I'm sure you meant. Cooperation from the NAM and NAO is also very helpful of course. +QBO/Nina forcing years like 1971-72, 1999-00, 75-76, come to mind; although, some were stronger Nina's. The sample size isn't excellent either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 8 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Just to add, Nina forcing/+QBO couplet doesn't necessarily result in cold by itself, as I'm sure you meant. Cooperation from the NAM and NAO is alos very helpful of course. +QBO/Nina forcing years like 1971-72, 1999-00, 75-76, come to mind; although, some were stronger Nina's. Right just made a quick generalization for the point of the post. That blog goes into grave details, along with situations where the north pac high did not agree with the research. How is your forecast coming along this year Iso? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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