WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[Windspeed]

I wonder if Lan will be intercepted by reconnaissance aircraft. Last year, there were several publications that members from Nagoya University and the Meteorogical Research Institute were going to conduct missions into powerful typhoons beginning this year. Granted, the 2017 WPAC season has been slow. But if ever there was a typhoon to start data gathering missions, especially considering the threat to Japan, you would think Lan would be it.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/typhoon-observation-western-pacific-recon-aircraft

It would be awesome to have a dropsonde in this big powerful eyewall. Sometimes Dvorak underestimates large eyewalls. I recall Irma this year in the Atlantic was underestimated versus some of the recon measurements, though that hurricane was imbedded in a higher background pressure regime.

Edit: Well I just stumbled across this info on another board. They did not include any obs but confirms the flight occurred. Article is Japanese, here is the Google translation:

Quote

Typhoon 21 's "Eye" Drop Measurement Institute Nagoya University Research Group to First Direct Observation

10/20 (Friday) 23: 32 delivery

A group of Nagoya University departed by airplane in order to observe the typhoon by inputting measuring instruments to typhoon 21 approaching.

Departing from the observation was the group of Nagoya University 's Professor Tsuboki Kazuhisa, and from the prefectural Nagoya airport on the afternoon of the 20th, it flew away. Professor Tsubuki 's group continues research to collect data such as atmospheric pressure and wind speed by dropping measuring instruments called " drop sonde " near the eyes of typhoons. This typhoon 21 is the first time to actually observe , Professor Tsubuki said "I want to improve prediction accuracy by taking accurate data of the typhoon."

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20171020-00173308-nbnv-sctch

[bluewave]

MJO 5-7 are the strongest phases for WPAC typhoon development. So LAN's RI is no surprise given the recent record MJO 5 for October.

 

[Amped]

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20171021/k10011185351000.html

 

Transated

 

 

Quote

Typhoon 21 "eyes" enter by plane and direct observation successful

October 21 19:13

In order to investigate the very large and very strong typhoon 21, a research group centered on Nagoya University, for the first time as a Japanese researcher, entered the "eye" which is the center of the typhoon by airplane for the first time, We made observations. A huge cumulonimbus cloud developed around "eye" which is the center of the typhoon, it was observed that a violent wind was blowing in the periphery, and the expert who went for observation said, "In a typhoon-specific state that developed rapidly, In the future too, we need strict watchfulness against the raging rain and wind in a wide range. "

We conducted observations with research groups from typhoon experts such as Nagoya University and the University of the Ryukyus.

On the 21st, we took off Kagoshima Airport at noon, rose to an altitude of about 13 kilometers, and succeeded in entering the "eye" of the typhoon center from the west side of Typhoon No. 21 which developed into a very large and extremely powerful force did.

As I entered my eyes, the blue sky suddenly expanded, and the developed cumulonimbus called "wall cloud" appeared like a wall, and there was a place where the sea level could be seen near the center.

The research group swiveled around the center of the typhoon and dropped 21 pieces of observation equipment of about 30 cm in length called "drop sonde". Drop sonde records data such as wind speed, pressure, and humidity every minute every time while falling in clouds.

According to the observation on 21st, near the center of the typhoon, the pressure near the ground is around 925 hectopascals, the wind speed is 80 m/s at the point of 1 kilometer from the ground, 70 m/s near the ground, the violent wind is blowing That means that we could confirm.

According to the group, this is the first time for Japanese researchers to observe directly around the center of the typhoon by plane.

Professor Kazuhisa Tsuboki, a representative of the research group, said, "We were able to directly confirm the situation unique to the rapidly developing typhoon.In the vicinity of the wall clouds a violent wind was blowing, We need stern guard against fierce rain and wind. "
Related · Featured word

 

 

70 m/s= 157mph   . Also yesterdays 12z Euro 24hrs had 926mb.  Todays 12z was initialized to 956mb.  Euro track goes right up Tokyo bay, GFS is west of it.

[Chinook]

According to JTWC, Tyhoon Lan peaked at 135 last night (daytime for that area of the world), which is ever so close to category-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

[gymengineer]

As its just south of Tokyo 
24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 34.1N 138.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 445 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Vera was the strongest typhoon to ever hit Japan, Cat3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Vera

 

Much different path, this one.

 

 

Beyond that, 30% of Japans population is at projected landfall in maybe the best angle possible for maximum impact.

[Amped]

You can see it's fighting off shear and dry and maintaining intensity.  It will hit cooler SSTs after 00UTC but still above 26C until close to landfall.  Also models show landfall between 15 and 18utc, this track looks a tad slow.

[Windspeed]

It's nice to have some recon surface obs for once in the WPAC to back up satellite estimates. I will say that Lan looks even better than it did when they acquired their dropsonde data yesterday.

EDIT: ADT ranged from 5.9 to 6.3 during the time they would have been in the eyewall.

At present, ADT CI # is: 6.8 / 922.9mb/134.8kt

JTWC 21/2100 discussion:

Quote

SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM EAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 38NM ROUND EYE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY POLEWARD, WHICH IS TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER JAPAN. A 211825Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD SURGE AND STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW. AS A RESULT, THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII ARE EXTENSIVE AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS OVER THE RYUKYU ISLANDS RANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 135 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5 (127 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (140 KNOTS). THE STY ESTIMATE WAS VALIDATED YESTERDAY BY AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA FROM JAPAN WITH MAXIMUM WINDS AND MINIMUM SLP IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 125 TO 130 KNOTS.

[bluewave]

Based on JMA records, TY #Lan is the 9th largest storm by gale-diameter on record in the West Pacific at 1,100 nmi. pic.twitter.com/c8xFY7kzJi

 

[Amped]

Taken a big jog west of the forecast track the past few hours. Moving due north as far as I can tell.

[Windspeed]

Taken a big jog west of the forecast track the past few hours. Moving due north as far as I can tell.

The center may be slightly tilted as well. Southerly flow is screaming. This is still an intense typhoon though. I am a bit worried this won't weaken more than 15-20 kts prior to landfall ue to rapid forward motion.

[the ghost of leroy]

56 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Taken a big jog west of the forecast track the past few hours. Moving due north as far as I can tell.
 

The center may be slightly tilted as well. Southerly flow is screaming. This is still an intense typhoon though. I am a bit worried this won't weaken more than 15-20 kts prior to landfall ue to rapid forward motion.

i don't know, man...it's really going downhill the last few frames

 

[Windspeed]

 

1 hour ago, cmasty1978 said:

i don't know, man...it's really going downhill the last few frames

Define "really going downhill"? If convection were falling apart, I'd concede. But this is classic tilting due to mid-level flow. Only, at present, the core is moving rapidly enough to counter it. That northern eyewall must still be quite fierce with such intense convection wrapped around it. Yes, you will have an assymmetrical appearance outside the core with baroclinic influence and increased southwesterly flow, but the core itself around the eyewall remains symmetrical and intact. This is still an intense typhoon. Hopefully it will begin to weaken significantly for the sake of impact on a highly populated region.

 

[Chinook]

How bad could this be for Tokyo Bay, in winds and surge?

[the ghost of leroy]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

 

Define "really going downhill"? If convection were falling apart, I'd concede. But this is classic tilting due to mid-level flow. Only, at present, the core is moving rapidly enough to counter it. That northern eyewall must still be quite fierce with such intense convection wrapped around it. Yes, you will have an assymmetrical appearance outside the core with baroclinic influence and increased southwesterly flow, but the core itself around the eyewall remains symmetrical and intact. This is still an intense typhoon. Hopefully it will begin to weaken significantly for the sake of impact on a highly populated region.

 

you've got way too much faith in this system. just throw on the loop.  this is going to look terrible in 8-10 hours.

 

[Windspeed]

you've got way too much faith in this system. just throw on the loop.  this is going to look terrible in 8-10 hours.

 

Perhaps in 8-10 hrs, but the perspective that it's falling apart based on current satellite presentation isn't good sound meteorology. We all knew the system was going to weaken based on the environement. But Lan isn't exactly hot garbage.

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Windspeed said:

8 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

you've got way too much faith in this system. just throw on the loop.  this is going to look terrible in 8-10 hours.

 
 

Perhaps in 8-10 hrs, but the perspective that it's falling apart based on current satellite presentation isn't good sound meteorology. We all knew the system was going to weaken based on the environement. But Lan isn't exactly hot garbage.

lan is definitely hot garbage and has been for its entire existence.  the WPAC is the land of gods.  show some respect to real legendary typhoons.  let this one go.

135kt max and extratropical turning crap into japan is zzzzz

 

[Windspeed]

lan is definitely hot garbage and has been for its entire existence.  the WPAC is the land of gods.  show some respect to real legendary typhoons.  let this one go.

 

135kt max and extratropical turning crap into japan is zzzzz

Haha. That's clearly your opinion. I see this as a powerful system that is going to make landfalll in a densely populated region. All based on perspective I suppose.

[gymengineer]

6 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

lan is definitely hot garbage and has been for its entire existence.  the WPAC is the land of gods.  show some respect to real legendary typhoons.  let this one go.

135kt max and extratropical turning crap into japan is zzzzz

 

Drunk? lower case writing, weird non-factual phrasings, etc. 

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Windspeed said:

Haha. That's clearly your opinion. I see this as a poweful system that is going to make landfalll in a densely populated region. All based on perspective I suppose.

 

let's just leave it be for now and we can see how it plays out.  i am still on team "blustery day with lots of twitter videos of waves".

[the ghost of leroy]

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

Drunk?

just passionate about not overhyping 

[Windspeed]

let's just leave it be for now and we can see how it plays out.  i am still on team "blustery day with lots of twitter videos of waves".

Good thing that's not how we alert the public. You don't downplay a 135kt cyclone. Yes, the core may degrade to absolute crap by landfall. You want to base your advisory on that call. Have you ever been in a Cat 2/3 storm? This will be destructive. Hopefully it will weaken and that destruction will be mitigated.

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Windspeed said:

2 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

let's just leave it be for now and we can see how it plays out.  i am still on team "blustery day with lots of twitter videos of waves".
 

Good thing that's not how we alert the public. You don't downplay a 135kt cyclone. Yes, the core may degrade to absolute crap landfall. You want to base your advisory on that call. Have you ever been in a Cat 2/3 storm? This will be destructive. Hopefully it will weaken an that destruction will be mitigated.

you can totally downplay a 135kt storm that is in the middle of the ocean.  what matters is what it is when it hits something.  and when it hits something it's going to be pretty run of the mill....maybe even garden variety (shout out to my hurricane nate weenies).  i'll be fine with eating a fat plate of crow if it turns out to be a disaster.

 

[Windspeed]

Also, NOBODY in this thread has been overhyping Lan. Not in the least. Get real.

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Windspeed said:

Also, NOBODY in this thread has been overhyping Lan. Not in the least. Get real.

tbh i think you have, mildly.

[Windspeed]

you can totally downplay a 135kt storm that is in the middle of the ocean.  what matters is what it is when it hits something.  and when it hits something it's going to be pretty run of the mill....maybe even garden variety (shout out to my hurricane nate weenies).  i'll be fine with eating a fat plate of crow if it turns out to be a disaster.

 

I just do not see what your point is here. Who has made a call this will landfall as a Super Typhoon? Look at the forecast. It's still serious for Japan.

[the ghost of leroy]

Just now, Windspeed said:

2 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

you can totally downplay a 135kt storm that is in the middle of the ocean.  what matters is what it is when it hits something.  and when it hits something it's going to be pretty run of the mill....maybe even garden variety (shout out to my hurricane nate weenies).  i'll be fine with eating a fat plate of crow if it turns out to be a disaster.

 
 

I just do not see what your point is here. Who has made a call this will landfall as a Super Typhoon? Look at the forecast. It's still serious for Japan.

japan is going to be just fine.  they have great building codes...and look at the satellite, dude...its pooping out.

[Windspeed]

japan is going to be just fine.  they have great building codes...and look at the satellite, dude...its pooping out.

Please quote me hyping this typhoon. Quote any words. I beg you. You are ridiculous.

[the ghost of leroy]

everyone knows i am ridiculous.  that's irrelevant, though. i am also usually right.

3 hours ago you said this:

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

4 hours ago, Amped said:

 

The center may be slightly tilted as well. Southerly flow is screaming. This is still an intense typhoon though. I am a bit worried this won't weaken more than 15-20 kts prior to landfall ue to rapid forward motion.

this will definitely be wrong. by a bunch.  

[Windspeed]

everyone knows i am ridiculous.  that's irrelevant, though. i am also usually right.

 

3 hours ago you said this:

 

this will definitely be wrong. by a bunch.  

 

That is your definition of hype? The core is in rapid motion. It's a worry vs I should just call it a windy day and move on?