WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[olafminesaw]

No doubt a cat 5 now. Probably went through some kind of eyewall restructuring over night

[gallopinggertie]

Looks like Yagi made landfall as a Cat. 4 equivalent on Hainan, and passed almost directly over Haikou, the largest city on the island. Hopefully they escaped major damage. Yagi is now heading for northern Vietnam. 

[patrick05]

928mb over Haikou (ZJHK)

ZJHK 061100Z 01003MPS 3000 R09///// R10/P2000 SHRA SCT010 SCT026CB SCT026 25/25 Q0928 BECMG TL1200 25020G35MPS 1000 +SHRA

[gallopinggertie]

Yagi could also do some damage in Haiphong and Ha Long (coastal cities in north Vietnam). It’s still at 100 knots according to JTWC and looks pretty well-organized on satellite.

[Windspeed]

Yagi could also do some damage in Haiphong and Ha Long (coastal cities in north Vietnam). It’s still at 100 knots according to JTWC and looks pretty well-organized on satellite.

Yagi may be the big bad TC of 2024. That's not to downplay Shanshan's flooding impacts to Japan. Yagi has already caused severe flooding in the Philippines, smacked a densely populated city (Haikou) at Category 3+ intensity, and appears to have reintensified now prior to densely populated port cities in northern Vietnam. I can not recall a typhoon ever this strong impacting the Haiphong and Ha Long metropolitan regions in the satellite era. I am worried about potential storm surge up the estuaries there. Yagi may have been moving just slow enough to regain fetch in the Gulf of Tonkin.

[Windspeed]

Yagi continues to re-intensify and is now a Category 4 equivalent as explosive convection with HTs wrap the eye.

Dire situation unfolding. Densely populated region at or below 2.5 meters (8 feet) -- essentially infrastructure built upon a river delta. The shallow gulf combined with shape of the coastline within the northern half of the circulation may funnel surge into these low-lying urban areas.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[dan11295]

As mentioned above, strong typhoon landfalls in that area are basically unheard of. Usually they only get weak storms that have been disrupted by significant land interaction, etc.

[Windspeed]

Considering the numerous videos floating around on SM showing direct hits or close calls by flying debris unleashed by extreme winds on pedestrians, motorists and especially motorcyclists, I am left to wonder at how little these populaces disregard official warnings (or the lack thereof) to protect life and property. For all of the flak Americans get for riding out TCs, at least most of us heed warnings and stay sheltered. Another thought that crosses my mind is even more sobering. The struggle to keep a job for basic survival forces folks to risk life and limb. People can bitch and moan at the disruption a TC will bring to a region, but I am very relieved and proud that we have the societal structure and system of government in place to not only protect our citizens, but help them manage the survival part so they aren't forced by some shitty corporation to either bleed or starve.

[Normandy]

^appreciate the post and sentiment but part of me feels like that’s a cultural thing.  I’ve seen several videos of Asian folks out and about during typhoons over the years.  I think they have a different relationship with typhoons than we do with hurricanes in America.  Not saying it’s right or wrong just an observation of mine 

[Chinook]

I hadn't been paying the greatest attention to Super Typhoon Yagi, but I saved these significant images from TropicalTidbits. Wikipedia says it topped out at Category-5, 160mph, 916mb

 

[gallopinggertie]

Early estimates of damage are over $8 billion for Hainan alone. 

[gallopinggertie]

Another strong typhoon is predicted to hit China in a few days, this time further north, near Shanghai.

[gallopinggertie]

Bebinca just made landfall in Shanghai as a marginal 65-kt typhoon.

[gallopinggertie]

Yagi ended up causing horrible flooding in Myanmar. Hundreds of deaths were reported there, as well as in Vietnam.

So far it’s the sixth-costliest typhoon on record, with $14 billion in damages, mostly in China. 

[Windspeed]

Yagi ended up causing horrible flooding in Myanmar. Hundreds of deaths were reported there, as well as in Vietnam.
So far it’s the sixth-costliest typhoon on record, with $14 billion in damages, mostly in China. 

Unfortunately, it looks like the number of fatalities from Yagi will surpass 1k. Estimates as high as 10k are still missing and over 250k displaced. The aftermath to central Myanmar may have been the worst; some of the most severe flooding in decades has occurred there. Believe it or not, Yagi has never fully dissipated. The remnants regained some organization in the upper North Indian Ocean and brought torrential rains to Bangladesh and India. In fact, the circulation and convective envelope still looks like an organized tropical cyclone despite the center being far inland into NE India.

Yagi will be retired. It is now the deadliest Pacific TC since Haiyan.

[gallopinggertie]

10 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Unfortunately, it looks like the number of fatalities from Yagi will surpass 1k. Estimates as high as 10k are still missing and over 250k displaced. The aftermath to central Myanmar may have been the worst; some of the most severe flooding in decades has occurred there. Believe it or not, Yagi has never fully dissipated. The system even regained some organization in the upper North Indian Ocean and has brought torrential rains to Bangladesh and India. In fact, the circulation and convective envelope still looks like an organized tropical cyclone despite the center being far inland into NE India.

Yagi will be retired. It is now the deadliest Pacific TC since Haiyan.

I really hope this is one of those situations where the number of missing people gets revised downward by a lot. 

That is a crazy graphic. Yagi still looks like a tropical storm to my untrained eye. 

[Windspeed]

I really hope this is one of those situations where the number of missing people gets revised downward by a lot. 
That is a crazy graphic. Yagi still looks like a tropical storm to my untrained eye. 

I should clarify that the RSMCs in the Pacific did stop issuing advisories on Yagi when the remnants crossed into Myanmar. Though the surface low never dissipated. So technically, the TC did lose TC classification. But the low reorganized into a deep depression over the NIO and Ganges River delta region.

[gallopinggertie]

5 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

12 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said:

I really hope this is one of those situations where the number of missing people gets revised downward by a lot. 
That is a crazy graphic. Yagi still looks like a tropical storm to my untrained eye. 

I should clarify that the RSMCs in the Pacific did stop issuing advisories on Yagi when the remnants crossed into Myanmar. Though the surface low never dissipated. So technically, the TC did lose TC classification. But the low reorganized into a deep depression over the NIO and Ganges River delta region.

I wonder if that was due to the brown ocean effect…this is near the end of the monsoon season in Bangladesh so the land is probably quite waterlogged by now.

[gallopinggertie]

Meanwhile, Bebinca was apparently the strongest typhoon to make landfall over Shanghai (though still just a Cat-1 equivalent) since 1949.

[Windspeed]

I wonder if that was due to the brown ocean effect…this is near the end of the monsoon season in Bangladesh so the land is probably quite waterlogged by now.

That probably did assist the TC in reorganizing.

[Windspeed]

Pretty grim situation in Myanmar. Sometimes disciplines merge when catastrophe strikes. Super Typhoon Yagi inevitably resulted in a geological/geomorphological disaster due to thousands of landslides throughout the mountainous countryside within the country's interior. Many isolated communities dowstream are inundated due to sediments and mudflows clogging rivers and encompassing villages. Communication out of these remote places is slow, and it may be some time before we really learn the true scope/magnitude inflicted on the peoples that reside there.

[gallopinggertie]

Continuing this season’s trend of typhoons threatening major cities, Typhoon Krathon (what a name!) is forecast to strike Kaohsiung, Taiwan as a Cat 3-equivalent.

Kaohsiung is a major city with nearly 3 million inhabitants. I would guess that a direct hit is rare there because of its position on the southwest coast of Taiwan.

The predicted landfall is still a couple days a way, though, so plenty of time for the track to change.

 

 

[Amped]

3 hours ago, gallopinggertie said:

Continuing this season’s trend of typhoons threatening major cities, Typhoon Krathon (what a name!) is forecast to strike Kaohsiung, Taiwan as a Cat 3-equivalent.

Kaohsiung is a major city with nearly 3 million inhabitants. I would guess that a direct hit is rare there because of its position on the southwest coast of Taiwan.

The predicted landfall is still a couple days a way, though, so plenty of time for the track to change.

 

 

Pretty bad situation if it landfalls on the west side of the island where most of the population is.

[gallopinggertie]

20 minutes ago, Amped said:

Pretty bad situation if it landfalls on the west side of the island where most of the population is.

Hopefully the track changes. krathon is already a powerful and large typhoon.
 

[gallopinggertie]

I reviewed the tracks of all the typhoons on Wikipedia’s category “typhoons in Taiwan”—it’s something like 80 typhoons in total. The only one that made landfall on Taiwan’s west coast was Wayne in 1986, but that was just at minimal Cat 1 intensity. So, if Krathon does in fact make this right hook and hit Kaohsiung as a 125-mph typhoon, it would be quite unusual indeed. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Wayne_(1986)

[Chinook]

Typhoon Krathon topped out at Category-4 equivalent (JTWC) and is now at 110 kt (just under category 4) on October 1st

[gallopinggertie]

Despite weakening to Cat 1 intensity before landfall, Krathon seems to have brought impressively strong winds to Kaohsiung. There are some videos on r/taiwan of a convenience storm whose entrance got blasted in by a huge gust, as a worker tried to hold the door in. 

But one visitor wrote the following comment on that subreddit, which seems encouraging:

“I’m an American tourist who happened to be in Kaohsiung during the typhoon. It’s clear that this is the worst typhoon this city has seen in years, since many older trees were uprooted.

I am impressed by how well Taiwan responds to and prepares for these storms! I went outside as soon as I thought it was safe today, and there were already workers cleaning up the tree damage.

Just as importantly, the damage seemed to be limited to trees and signs. The buildings seemed unscathed by the storm, despite this apparently being the worst Kaohsiung has experienced in a while, which means they were designed very well.”

[Chinook]

Typhoon Kong-Rey in the Pacific is forecast to be up to 115kt (category-4) before it comes close to Taiwan and perhaps makes landfall on Taiwan.

[Windspeed]

Good grief!

Typhoon Kong-Rey is really living up to its name here, folks. The IKE on this thing must be insane. Deep intense ring of convection around a massive 55 nm eye with strong mesovorticies rotating around the inside of the eyewall. The sheer size of the low-level and mid-level vortex combined with such intensity is critical. It's just a different breed of TC in the WPAC, even if the size of this one is still kind of rare to be so strong. It's hard to fathom a TC this large being in the GOM. The storm surge alone would surpass 30 feet along the NGOM coast.