Windspeed Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Freddy is crawling into this latest landfall. Some modeling allows the cyclone to stall just inland only to re-emerge off the coast (again) with another period of reintensification. Need to go back over ACE numbers, but Freddy may have even surpassed Ioke for all-time highest now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 46 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Freddy is crawling into this latest landfall. Some modeling allows the cyclone to stall just inland only to re-emerge off the coast (again) with another period of reintensification. Need to go back over ACE numbers, but Freddy may have even surpassed Ioke for all-time highest now. This city is pretty close to the center, a very tight core! (Got this on windy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Freddy is about to make landfall if it hasn't already. Just East of the city of Quelimane (probably currently just inside the eye) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 I'd imagine a pretty dire surge situation for low-lying coastal communities there. Non-stop onshore onslaught of flow and fetch in the southern semicircle of the cyclone must be driving water into the port and river estuaries around Quelimane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 Nice video looking down upon the river and adjacent communities of Quelimane to give a small glimpse of the coastal geography there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 On 3/11/2023 at 3:53 PM, Windspeed said: I'd imagine a pretty dire surge situation for low-lying coastal communities there. Non-stop onshore onslaught of flow and fetch in the southern semicircle of the cyclone must be driving water into the port and river estuaries around Quelimane. Images starting to emerge. It's never good when you don't hear much news a couple days after landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 One of the prettiest radar images you'll see, as cat 5 ILSA comes ashore in sparsely populated Western Australia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 With all the advances in AI, a preschooler could still find the center of a TC better than ADT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 13, 2023 Share Posted May 13, 2023 watch out Myanmar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 14, 2023 Share Posted May 14, 2023 Pretty nasty TC. Hoping for some gradual weakening prior to landfall, but clearly, based on the recent MW trends above, it's not weakening at present. Looks like bad impacts for Myanmar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 14, 2023 Share Posted May 14, 2023 Absolutely stunning presentation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted May 14, 2023 Share Posted May 14, 2023 Wild mesovortex action going on this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 14, 2023 Share Posted May 14, 2023 Cloud tops are warming a bit, but I think this might be pretty normal during the daytime and is not necessarily indicative of gradual weakening. Either way, the stage has already been set for a devastating storm surge and even if the storm does weaken upon landfall it won't make a huge difference in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 14, 2023 Share Posted May 14, 2023 The orientation of the coastline in the Sittwe area definitely has me concerned about locally-enhanced storm surge. Mocha's strength and motion, along with the overall orientation of the coastline, are reminding me of Hurricane Ian, although there are great differences in topography (notice the hills and mountains running parallel to the coast). Those lowlands are in big trouble. I've extremely concerned about any humanitarian crisis that will follow Mocha's landfall. EDIT: it looks like I'm not too far off with respect to the highlighted area of concern, at least according to this forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 20, 2023 Share Posted May 20, 2023 TS Mawaw (it will be called Betty in the RP) when it enters Pagasa area of responsibility) may be a threat to the Philippines in a week. I don't have the attachment space to post the GIF, but it is looking good. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02W&product=ir Sub 920 on GFS in a week. Op GFS and Euro are a near miss N of Luzon, 0Z Euro ensemble is close. Re file name, Pagasa uses Filipino names, usually English or Spanish, and are a lot easier to remember than the WMO names of WPac cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 Not a super typhoon per JTWC (70 knots), but I can get satellite images into the thread without using up more attachment space with Twitter. GFS does get it to 915mb next weekend. GFS and ensemble mean are a near miss for Luzon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 21, 2023 Share Posted May 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Not a super typhoon per JTWC (70 knots), but I can get satellite images into the thread without using up more attachment space with Twitter. GFS does get it to 915mb next weekend. GFS and ensemble mean are a near miss for Luzon. Global models have this storm going over Rota Island, Northern Mariana Islands, part of the USA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 7 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Not a super typhoon per JTWC (70 knots), but I can get satellite images into the thread without using up more attachment space with Twitter. GFS does get it to 915mb next weekend. GFS and ensemble mean are a near miss for Luzon. 912MB now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 15 hours ago, Chinook said: Global models have this storm going over Rota Island, Northern Mariana Islands, part of the USA. Shifted south now to rake Guam with a northern eyewall as it passes as a strong cat 3. A few more shifts would spare them that type of hit but they should see a good hit regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 4 hours ago, shaggy said: Shifted south now to rake Guam with a northern eyewall as it passes as a strong cat 3. A few more shifts would spare them that type of hit but they should see a good hit regardless. I wonder if the earlier bend W increases the threat to the Philippines, although most GEFS members recurve before landfall.. Cat 3 over or near miss of Guam is a big deal. Looking at maps a few days ago, I forgot all about Guam because it is so small. I spent a couple of hours in Guam, in the airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 For being such a tiny target, Guam is one of the most high end hurricane prone population centers in the world. They get a direct major hurricane strike about every 20 years or so. They'll be fine structurally, it's more a concern of life after the storm being difficult for weeks if not months after. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 22, 2023 Share Posted May 22, 2023 It took a while but it's ramping up nicely now https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02W&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 Quote Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 23 MAY 2023 Time : 022000 UTC Lat : 11:19:47 N Lon : 146:37:48 E Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.4 6.7 7.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 It’s an absolute buzzsaw on satellite and radar even with an apparent attempt at an ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s an absolute buzzsaw on satellite and radar even with an apparent attempt at an ERC. That eye is clear and it's a beast. 140kts just prior to landfall as predicted with a pass over the island. Gonna be rough rode for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 Really starting to look like an EWRC may save Guam from a cat 5 impact. Barring a meld or quick completion, neither of which are especially likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 Decent recovery ongoing on sat imaging in the northern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 Constant lightning around the eyewall. Such an impressive typhoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Constant lightning around the eyewall. Such an impressive typhoon. It's a race now to see if it finishes the ewrc before reaching Guam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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