patrick05 Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Data equipment and communications obviously failed at the airport on Itbayat. Well the 18z report had the pressure jump back up to 983hPa (50hPa jump in 1 hour lol)... 933hPa seems pretty high given the island was under the eye for a moment... maybe it bottomed out in between reports?? also winds down to 64kph and 90kph in Itbayat and Basco, respectively... i'm afraid to see the reports out of there today, home to about 18k people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Well the 18z report had the pressure jump back up to 983hPa (50hPa jump in 1 hour lol)... 933hPa seems pretty high given the island was under the eye for a moment... maybe it bottomed out in between reports?? also winds down to 64kph and 90kph in Itbayat and Basco, respectively... i'm afraid to see the reports out of there today, home to about 18k peopleOk, great! It wasn't showing any changes for several hours. Glad they're up. Anxious to see what they have to report besides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 the pressure gradient in something like this is very extreme. those numbers could be totally consistent with a <900mb storm, especially the 933. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 13, 2016 Author Share Posted September 13, 2016 6 minutes ago, patrick05 said: Well the 18z report had the pressure jump back up to 983hPa (50hPa jump in 1 hour lol)... 933hPa seems pretty high given the island was under the eye for a moment... maybe it bottomed out in between reports?? also winds down to 64kph and 90kph in Itbayat and Basco, respectively... i'm afraid to see the reports out of there today, home to about 18k people It might be a faulty report. The island was still in the eye at 18Z. Alternatively, I've seen some speculation that the 9 should be replaced with an 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 9 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said: It might be a faulty report. The island was still in the eye at 18Z. Alternatively, I've seen some speculation that the 9 should be replaced with an 8. the airport is near the S end of the island, in or next to the eyewall. If that 9 was replaced with an 8 then the central pressure would probably be sub 870. i think the sensor is just wonky because a super typhoon just hit it. the 883 theory is just too crazy to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 13, 2016 Author Share Posted September 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: the airport is near the S end of the island, in or next to the eyewall. If that 9 was replaced with an 8 then the central pressure would probably be sub 870. i think the sensor is just wonky because a super typhoon just hit it. the 883 theory is just too crazy to believe. Yep, that's what I think too. While I won't completely dismiss the 883 mb theory, I also think it is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Eye now visible on Taiwan radar. Local time is 8 hours ahead of GMT, in other words, 23z or 7 pm EDT (4 pm PDT) is 0700h Wednesday 14th in Taiwan. http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 13, 2016 Share Posted September 13, 2016 Lanyu (Orchid Island) offshore to east of south tip of Taiwan recently reporting gusts to near 60 m/sec which translates to about 135 mph. Track prediction is off the southwest coast of Taiwan, at least cat-2 if not cat-3 conditions could spread across that region today, and if track is any closer, cat-4 is possible. Penghu Island off west coast of Taiwan will eventually take almost a direct hit, their hope lies in eventual weakening by that time (about 18z), storm still looks very strong on satellite (which can be accessed from same website as the radar above). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Hengchun near south tip of Taiwan has 15-min updates of all parameters ... currently 966 mb and 8 inches of rain in 9.5 hours with wind gusts to 180 km/hr (about 112 mph). http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46759.htm There was a buoy off the south coast reporting but it went down around 00z. Radar shows eye about 50 nm south of this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 Xiamen gusting to 80mph and their wind is offshore which means the center passed northeast of them. You'd have to think places just east of center gusting to 100-110. Satellite appearance I think this is a 95-100mph storm, not 125 as JTWC has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 14, 2016 Share Posted September 14, 2016 I cant remember the name of that famous hurricane chaser here on American who chases hurricanes all over the world, but is he chasing Meranti? He ought to be able to get some good video coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 3 hours ago, Jebman said: I cant remember the name of that famous hurricane chaser here on American who chases hurricanes all over the world, but is he chasing Meranti? He ought to be able to get some good video coverage. i think canebeard is retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 On 9/14/2016 at 8:43 PM, cmasty1978 said: i think canebeard is retired. He probably means Hurricane Josh/aka Josh morgerman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Malakas went through the Yaeyama Islands earlier this morning (Japan Time) with the center passing right over the small island of Yonaguni-jima... Highest sustained wind speed was 45.1m/s (88kt) and highest gust was 66.8m/s (130kt); both recorded before the eye moved through... lowest pressure was 936.9hPa recorded an hour after... very cool to have such data recorded... shame Basco's and Itbayat's equipment failed just when the eye was going through with Meranti... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 36 minutes ago, Rjay said: Still no word from the island, 5 days later. It's a rather worrisome situation to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Still no word from the island, 5 days later. It's a rather worrisome situation to say the least. This is the latest I can find. http://news.pia.gov.ph/article/view/2131474114626/update-on-ndrrmc-s-relief-operations-in-batanes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 Typhoon Malakas at about the strongest point. The people of Taiwan must feel like a bad weather magnet recently. Typhoon Malakas maxed out at Cat 4, 115 kt at Sept. 16, 18z, reasonably close to Taiwan. Image is from Sept. 16, 2020z. Now it is moving toward southwestern Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 1 hour ago, Chinook said: Typhoon Malakas at about the strongest point. The people of Taiwan must feel like a bad weather magnet recently. Typhoon Malakas maxed out at Cat 4, 115 kt at Sept. 16, 18z, reasonably close to Taiwan. Image is from Sept. 16, 2020z. Now it is moving toward southwestern Japan. Is it just me or does the JTWC have a tendency to over estimate wind speeds. That doesn't look on par with a cat 4 due to a filled eye and no convection north of the center. Wasn't an issue on meranti before it entered the south China sea. Then I think they were over a little. I see lots of storms given ratings, that, based on satellite appearances do not look that steong. However I'm not familiar with the Dvorak classification or whatever thing they use to determine pressure and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 18, 2016 Author Share Posted September 18, 2016 On 9/18/2016 at 0:34 AM, NWLinnCountyIA said: Is it just me or does the JTWC have a tendency to over estimate wind speeds. That doesn't look on par with a cat 4 due to a filled eye and no convection north of the center. Wasn't an issue on meranti before it entered the south China sea. Then I think they were over a little. I see lots of storms given ratings, that, based on satellite appearances do not look that steong. However I'm not familiar with the Dvorak classification or whatever thing they use to determine pressure and intensity. The typical JTWC biases are actually to be too low when a storm is strengthening or near peak intensity and then constrain the storm too high once it has begun weakening. The 2015 Typhoon Season was actually stripped of about 20*10^4 kt^2 between the operational and final best track data largely because of over-constraining a weakening storm. However, in this case I'd say JTWC's intensity estimate was pretty good. Keep in mind that in order to make a real time intensity estimate (in this case, at 18Z), only the data up to that point is available to be used, so in this case, the data mainly used came from between 12Z and 18Z (images below are from 1650Z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 18, 2016 Author Share Posted September 18, 2016 Yonagunijima was also right in the eye of Malakas early (in zulu) on the 17th. Even after beginning to weaken, the island recorded a 937 mb pressure, along with 10 minute sustained winds of 88 kt and a gust to 130 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 19 hours ago, olafminesaw said: Still no word from the island, 5 days later. It's a rather worrisome situation to say the least. there are pics out there...prepare to be underwhelmed...it looks nothing like a cat 5 strike... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 Malakas has restrengthened to a category 3 and is headed for Kyushu in 15 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted September 19, 2016 Author Share Posted September 19, 2016 Malakas has made landfall in far southern Kyushu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 25, 2016 Share Posted September 25, 2016 JTWC Prognostic Reasoning on Typhoon Megi (75 kt) Quote TY MEGI WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 26, 2016 Share Posted September 26, 2016 Incoming Megi approaching Taiwan for probable direct hit north-central late today into tonight local time (which is 8h ahead of GMT so around 12-15z Tuesday). At time of posting, 1940z = 0340h Tuesday 27th in Taiwan Standard Time. This is the time stamp on radar link below. http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/ Current forecast intensity appears to be high end cat 2 or low cat 3 in NATL terms, dropping to 1/2 by time the eye leaves western Taiwan (on current forecasts that would be 20z Tuesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Pretty big eye and looks to be strengthening on the front side as it hits, Josh was in Hualien City not sure if he moved north or not, the last obs had gust to 89 mph there , pressure was 968mb and the worse of it is still a hr or two away....just gusted to 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Reports of 21 inches of rain already (in about 14 hours) at Taipingshan, just inland from landfall zone, eye is close to east coast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 The town Josh was last in has reported winds gusting 80-100 mph for at least 4 hrs now.....that's a long time to deal with winds like that.....haven't seen any reports over 105ish though so far at any of the obs sites on the east coast....... this location gusting to 120 mph looks to be in the north eyewall never got the center... http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/real/46706.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 27, 2016 Share Posted September 27, 2016 Eye has moved back over water, rainfall now about 39 inches at Taipingshan (985 mm in 24.5 hours to 1630z) and over 24 inches at several locations in the central highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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