Radtechwxman Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 That island definitely impacted Goni. Eye has shrink considerably after passage over it. Hopefully this can bring the intensity down some but regardless this will still be a catastrophic cat 4-5 across the Philippines 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Landfall microwave courtesy of Bachmeier @ CIMSS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Goni has definitely degraded quite a bit on satellite in its inner core. Curious what the intensity is now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Goni as strong as Haiyan? Going strictly by satellite here. I did a comparison of EIR and BD geostationary imagery (4 km resolution) at Goni's and Haiyan's peak intensity of 170 kt. Goni EIR 10/31/20 18z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmirimg/2020wp22_4kmirimg_202010311800.gif Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1830z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmirimg/2013wp31_4kmirimg_201311071830.gif Goni BD 10/31/20 18z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/4kmsrbdc/2020wp22_4kmsrbdc_202010311800.jpg Haiyan BD 11/7/13 1830z 170 kt https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/4kmsrbdc/2013wp31_4kmsrbdc_201311071830.jpg Haiyan looks more symmetrical with a thicker/colder CDO ring and warmer/clearer eye. ----- Comparison of Polar EIR imagery (1 km resolution) Goni EIR 10/31/20 1225z https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020wp22/1kmirimg/2020wp22_1kmirimg_202010311225.gif Haiyan EIR 11/7/13 1640z https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2013wp31/1kmirimg/2013wp31_1kmirimg_201311071640.gif Polar imagery is not at the same time but still Haiyan looks so much more impressive overall for its cold COD ring and a warmer/clearer eye overall. Geostationary imagery for Goni at 18z does not suggest its satellite presentation improved to this level from 1225z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 1, 2020 Share Posted November 1, 2020 Haiyan was on its own level. I sure wish they could have gotten a recon plane in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/WXappraiser/status/1323217109111894017 Destroyed radar dome and obliterated trees in Catanduanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Even in a year full of RI events, what Gati has done today is extremely impressive. LOOK: Tropical Cyclone 03A (#Gati) "explosively" intensified from a minimal Tropical Storm to a (Category 3-equivalent) Severe Cyclonic Storm in just 12 hours. According to JTWC, it is now bearing down on Somalia with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 185 km/h. https://t.co/IqtOEWXsSS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 Even in a year full of RI events, what Gati has done today is extremely impressive. LOOK: Tropical Cyclone 03A (#Gati) "explosively" intensified from a minimal Tropical Storm to a (Category 3-equivalent) Severe Cyclonic Storm in just 12 hours. According to JTWC, it is now bearing down on Somalia with 1-minute maximum sustained winds of up to 185 km/h. https://t.co/IqtOEWXsSSIt's literally insane. Gati came out of nowhere, was not modeled by any guidance near this intensity. There is no historical record of a Cat 3 landall in Somalia, though I suspect in years where upwelling off of the NE Somaliaan coast, OHC at near surface might be warm enough on occasion. Still, generally too arid an environment to support such intensities. Takes more than SST support. Just a really phenomenal cyclone. Gati does appear to be weakening into landfall. Unfortunately it may be too late for weakening to mitigate impacts to higher population center as these folks have rarely ever experienced hurricane force impacts to a weak infrastructure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted November 22, 2020 Share Posted November 22, 2020 I've been tracking that from over here because I'm responsible for that region & JTWC dropped the ball big time. 2 days ago there were 2 well-defined clusters with evident surface circulation, and in the span of 2 hours last night, one group of storms exploded & closed off the eye. It was bombs away very fast then. Already forecasting flooding in Djibouti, because well, it happens in a scenario like this with ease over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 23, 2020 Share Posted November 23, 2020 It would seem insane RI close to land is not just an Atlantic/GoM phenomenon this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Fiji looks to be on the receiving end of a cat 3 landfall in a couple of days if the track forecast holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 Fiji looks to be on the receiving end of a cat 3 landfall in a couple of days if the track forecast holds.Make that a Cat 5 on the Aussie scale. JTWC presently has it at 110 kts and expectss further intensification. Should reach a high end Category 4(Saffir-Simpson) prior to land interaction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 15, 2020 Share Posted December 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Make that a Cat 5 on the Aussie scale. JTWC presently has it at 110 kts and expectss further intensification. Should reach a high end Category 4(Saffir-Simpson) prior to land interaction. Yeah forecast to peak at 140kts and landfall at around 120kts. Gonna be a bad hit for Fiji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Yeah gonna be a big hit for Fiji. Hopefully the eye passes between the islands but either way it looks like someone takes the eyewall of a 130+kt cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Landfall at 130kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Luckily it won't hit anything but theres a 140kt beast in the Indian ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Another fake cat 5 for rsmc Nadi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 13, 2021 Share Posted April 13, 2021 Wpac about to crank out a big one that will luckily miss land. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Surigae is a beast. ADTv9 shows CI T# is 8.0 with estimated pressure of 890mb and winds of 170 kts. I've not been able to find the official 12Z pressure estimate yet, but JTWC is saying 155 kts. ADT90 LIST 02W.ODT CKZ=YES ===== ADT-Version 9.0 ===== ----Intensity--- -Tno Values-- --------Tno/CI Rules-------- -Temperature- Time MSLP/Vmax Fnl Adj Ini Cnstrnt Wkng Rpd ET ST Cntr Mean Scene EstRMW MW Storm Location Fix Date (UTC) CI (CKZ)/(kts) Tno Raw Raw Limit Flag Wkng Flag Flag Region Cloud Type (km) Score Lat Lon Mthd Sat VZA 2021APR17 054000 7.2 916.7 146.0 7.2 7.7 7.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.69 -84.01 EYE 18 IR 97.0 11.36 -130.19 ARCHER HIM-8 18.1 2021APR17 061000 7.3 913.5 149.0 7.3 7.8 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.61 -84.24 EYE 20 IR 97.0 11.35 -130.10 ARCHER HIM-8 18.1 2021APR17 064000 7.4 910.3 152.0 7.4 7.8 7.9 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.37 -83.97 EYE 20 IR 97.0 11.43 -130.07 ARCHER HIM-8 18.2 2021APR17 070000 7.5 907.1 155.0 7.5 7.9 8.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.17 -83.19 EYE 20 IR 97.0 11.55 -130.03 ARCHER HIM-8 18.4 2021APR17 074000 7.7 900.5 161.0 7.7 7.8 7.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.07 -83.17 EYE 18 IR 97.0 11.58 -129.95 ARCHER HIM-8 18.4 2021APR17 081000 7.8 897.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 8.0 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.12 -83.98 EYE 18 IR 97.0 11.62 -129.81 ARCHER HIM-8 18.6 2021APR17 084000 7.8 897.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 8.0 3.2T/18hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.99 -84.15 EYE 18 IR 70.7 11.67 -129.78 ARCHER HIM-8 18.7 2021APR17 091000 7.8 897.2 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.49 -83.78 EYE 19 IR 70.7 11.74 -129.72 ARCHER HIM-8 18.8 2021APR17 094000 7.8 897.1 164.0 7.8 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 9.30 -84.51 EYE 21 IR 79.9 11.80 -129.67 ARCHER HIM-8 18.9 2021APR17 101000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.97 -84.71 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.51 ARCHER HIM-8 19.0 2021APR17 104000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.34 -84.85 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.87 -129.49 ARCHER HIM-8 19.1 2021APR17 111000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.33 -84.50 EYE 20 IR 79.9 11.94 -129.38 ARCHER HIM-8 19.2 2021APR17 114000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.16 -84.74 EYE 19 IR 79.9 12.03 -129.26 ARCHER HIM-8 19.4 2021APR17 121000 7.9 893.7 167.0 7.9 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.59 -84.31 EYE 19 IR 79.9 12.05 -129.10 ARCHER HIM-8 19.5 2021APR17 124000 8.0 890.3 170.0 8.0 8.1 8.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.18 -84.63 EYE 20 IR 79.9 12.04 -129.06 ARCHER HIM-8 19.5 2021APR17 131000 8.0 890.3 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.77 -84.25 EYE 18 IR 79.9 12.06 -129.05 ARCHER HIM-8 19.6 2021APR17 134000 8.0 890.3 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.61 -84.06 EYE 18 IR 79.9 12.13 -128.98 ARCHER HIM-8 19.7 2021APR17 141000 8.0 890.3 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 19.79 -84.06 EYE 18 IR 79.9 12.16 -128.91 ARCHER HIM-8 19.8 2021APR17 143000 8.0 890.3 170.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 20.34 -83.52 EYE 18 IR 79.9 12.20 -128.87 ARCHER HIM-8 19.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 I don’t usually look at WPAC stuff, but this one is a beauty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 The latest JMA advisory is 895mb. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 17, 2021 Share Posted April 17, 2021 Wow it's good that this will recurve and not make a direct hit there, otherwise this would be another Haiyan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 JTWC estimated its minimum central pressure at 888mb. JMA at 895mb. This shatters the record for the most intense cyclone prior to May 1st and is in the elite top 20 highest wind speeds at any time of year. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-04-16-typhoon-surigae-philippines-forecast BTW...this was a well forecasted cyclone. Both the GFS and ECMWF had been consistently showing a low 900's intensity at least 5 days out. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 18, 2021 Share Posted April 18, 2021 13 hours ago, bdgwx said: JTWC estimated its minimum central pressure at 888mb. JMA at 895mb. This shatters the record for the most intense cyclone prior to May 1st and is in the elite top 20 highest wind speeds at any time of year. https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2021-04-16-typhoon-surigae-philippines-forecast BTW...this was a well forecasted cyclone. Both the GFS and ECMWF had been consistently showing a low 900's intensity at least 5 days out. The timing is incredible and concerning. Without recon we will never know for sure what these WPAC beasts are really obtaining. Once you start maxing out T it’s hard to differentiate between 175kts and 200 and 900 and 870. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 27, 2021 Share Posted May 27, 2021 Test on whether the Euro will continue the trend of doing a terrible job at cyclogenesis: The GFS has been on this system for a while, shows a 939 mb storm south of Okinawa 240 hours out while Euro has squat. Who will win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 On 5/27/2021 at 7:00 PM, cptcatz said: Test on whether the Euro will continue the trend of doing a terrible job at cyclogenesis: The GFS has been on this system for a while, shows a 939 mb storm south of Okinawa 240 hours out while Euro has squat. Who will win? Well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 30, 2021 Share Posted May 30, 2021 3 hours ago, bowtie` said: Well? GFS dropped it. Looks like King Euro reigns supreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 21, 2021 Share Posted July 21, 2021 Decent typhoon looks to miss most landmass before weakening. Gfs did well with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 22, 2021 Share Posted July 22, 2021 On 7/21/2021 at 8:38 AM, shaggy said: Decent typhoon looks to miss most landmass before weakening. Gfs did well with it. The West Pacific seems to be roaring back to life after a weak year last year and a weak spring/early summer. Typhoon In-Fa is east of Taiwan now at 85 kt (JTWC). As mentioned, this will mostly affect islands between Taiwan and Japan as it weakens. There may be another typhoon quite soon, away from land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 7, 2021 Share Posted September 7, 2021 Well so much for the Atlantic Basin (Larry) overcoming the Western Pacific's ACE. Chanthu is about to become violent and will likely evolve into one of 2021's most intense long-tracking tropical cyclones. The rate of organization is outpacing forecast trends and it looks like this has a good shot at becoming a Super Typhoon. It will have a very favorable environment for rapid intensification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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