WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones

[the ghost of leroy]

I’m surprised they are running back Goni. It should have been retired last cycle because that storm was a banger. Anyways, this one looks good too. It’s nice to see red meat in the WPAC

[Windspeed]

Cat 5 comment corrected above.

[tiger_deF]

Is there a reason that the WPAC basin doesn't really have recon missions from any agency like we do in the Atlantic/Pacific? Lack of funding?

[patrick05]

2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Is there a reason that the WPAC basin doesn't really have recon missions from any agency like we do in the Atlantic/Pacific? Lack of funding?

Japan is the official RSMC in the region so I don't think it's a lack of funding at all.. maybe they just don't see the urgency?? whatever the reason is, it's a real travesty.. this basin produces quite a lot of really interesting cyclones that would be of significance to science.. and not to mention the annoyance of seeing JMA and JTWC constantly under-analyze typhoon intensities...

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

Is there a reason that the WPAC basin doesn't really have recon missions from any agency like we do in the Atlantic/Pacific? Lack of funding?

USAF did do recons in the WPAC (mostly out of Guam) until 1987.  That's when I think full reliable geostationary coverage (GMS satellite) was available.

It is virtually without a doubt there have been several STYs in the WPAC stronger than STY Tip.  Haiyan (2013) and Zeb (1998) are likely candidates.  A few more are discussed here:
https://ams.confex.com/ams/26HURR/techprogram/paper_75465.htm
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/75465.pdf

Many TCs globally, weak and strong, are underestimated when no recon is present. Dvorak does best with systems 60-105 kt.  This mean two things 1) a lot of TDs are actually weak TSs, and 2) the most intense TCs are often underestimated, sometimes by significant values.  The smaller, more intense a TC is, the greater the error.  Dvorak does not do well for small/tiny intense TCs.  No way we would ever have got 215 mph for Patricia based on satellite, even if it was an average size TC.  Usually TC centers will max 1-min winds at 185 mph for satellite-only estimates, such as EPAC Linda 1997 (likely strong than 185 mph).  JTWC until Haiyan never went about 185 mph satellite-based only.  Even Haiyan's 195 mph is only an estimate.

In the hurricane re-analysis project for the Atlantic, adjustments to the most intense TCs are capped at 185 mph.  Just no way to tell what really goes on in these mesoscale cores of intense TCs without recon, even with direct pressure readings as we now know how variable the winds can be for a given eye pressure.  I will say with the FL Keys Labor Day hurricane in 1935, an 892 mb pressure and RMW smaller than Andrew's, and 30 mb lower than Andrew, that  meant the winds were probably ~200 mph.

[shaggy]

Up to 150kts this morning.

 

[Windspeed]

[salbers]

Live or recent reporting here from force13 on YouTube: 

 

[WhirlingWx]

Apparently this thing's gone sub-900? (Not sure if it's official) 

Looks really neat on satellite.

[Windspeed]

Apparently this thing's gone sub-900? (Not sure if it's official) 
Looks really neat on satellite.

There's no way this isn't sub 890 mb... The inner eyewall has continued to contract yet intensify despite the intensifying outer eyewall. This is a classic Gilbert '88 or Tip '79 looking concentric eyewall monster.

[the ghost of leroy]

God the troichs on that one

[the ghost of leroy]

Low key better than Patricia 

[WhirlingWx]

12 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

There's no way this isn't sub 890 mb... The inner eyewall has continued to contract yet intensify despite the intensifying outer eyewall. This is a classic Gilbert '88 or Tip '79 looking concentric eyewall monster.

Grrr... Me want recon

[Windspeed]

[cstrunk]

That's a full blown Dyson right there. Beautiful. 

[yoda]

Sounds like ERC is coming soon per disco -- https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) 
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT, POWERFUL SYSTEM 
WITH A WELL DEFINED 7 NM EYE. WHILE STILL COMPACT IN NATURE
IT HAS INCREASED IN SIZE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL 
DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
OF 160 KTS IS FURTHER PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS 
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF T7.5 (155 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) BASED ON RECENT 
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.6 
(158 KTS). ANALYSIS OF THE EYE WALL STRUCTURES IN SEVERAL 
MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE 
(ERC) IS IMMINENT. DESPITE THIS, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE, CLOUD TOP AND EYE TEMPERATURES ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT A WEAKENING PHASE, TYPICAL OF ERC, HAS NOT YET COMMENCED. 
STY GONI HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA 
AND THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM 
(30 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST 
RADIAL OUTFLOW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ESPECIALLY STRONG.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY GONI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER A
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE ERC
AND, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE, AND A SMALL INCREASE IN 
VWS (15-20 KTS). STY GONI WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE
COAST OF LUZON, EAST OF MANILA, BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36 AS A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ACROSS 
LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, IT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN DUE 
TO TERRAIN INTERACTION TO AN INTENSITY OF 75 KTS BY TAU 48. AS 
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 
TAU 72, IT WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO AN INTENSITY OF 60 KTS DUE 
TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS. NUMERICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS INITIAL PORTION OF 
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WITH A TOTAL SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK 
MODEL SOLUTIONS OF 150 NM AT TAU 72. SPECIFICALLY THE NAVGEM 
TRACK LIES NORTHWARD OF THE OTHER JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS 
MEMBERS. AS SUCH, THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST IS 
PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH 
OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR POSITIONED 
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, AND MAKE A SECOND 
LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 
120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
MODERATE VWS AND CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. 
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SINCE THE LAST 
FORECAST WITH ONLY NAVGEM PREDICTING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HAINAN. THE REMAINING MEMBERS OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AGREE WITH A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS
PLACED SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO OFFSET THE NORTHWESTWARD BIAS CONTRIBUTED BY THE
NAVGEM TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

155+ kt landfall looks virtually guaranteed at this point.

[salbers]

Here's a visible satellite animation from later in the daytime period:

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=himawari&z=2&im=6&ts=1&st=20201031072709&et=20201031074944&speed=130&motion=loop&map=NaN&maps[borders]=white&lat=1&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p[0]=band_03&x=888&y=968.5

[patrick05]

Sheeeeesus... looks like a pretty smooth ERC... back to T8.0?????

Can only imagine the havoc this will cause along its path.. should weaken to Cat 2/3 by the time it reaches Manila but it's been a while since they were directly hit by an intense typhoon

[Windspeed]

Weakening to a Cat 4 prior to landfall is looking unlikely now. Cloudtops are cooling and the eye is warming again. Old cloud fill/remnants of the old eye are dissipating as Goni bears down on the coast.

[1900hurricane]

Posted this a few hours ago, but it isn't like anything has really changed since then aside from the eye continuing to clear out.

 

[1900hurricane]

 

[1900hurricane]

And now we have double T8.0s from JMA and JTWC.

[Windspeed]

And now we have double T8.0s from JMA and JTWC.

Yeah this is approaching landfall. Likely to tie Haiyan and Meranti as the most intense landfalling cyclones on record. Obviously, again, no recon. Just ADT which supports 170 kts / 195 mph sustained. I'd argue Haiyan was probably stronger at landfall than Goni will be or what Meranti likely was at its landfall, but it's just speculation. Fortunately it's not hitting a greater populated region like when Haiyan struck Tacloban for the intial intense point of landfall.

[hlcater]

Absolute beast of a storm. Wish we had recon in a storm like that.

[patrick05]

Virac is the closest synoptic station along the path and may even get very very close to the eye.. hopefully we can get some good data even just the minimum pressure...

JMA at 8.0 but I'm very surprised they limited this to 905mb.. was really expecting something 890-900mb from them

Also I believe this is the first time that PAGASA has raised Warning Signal #5 in the Philippines... the max used to be #4 but they introduced #5 as a response after Haiyan's monstrous landfall.

[1900hurricane]

WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ,   0, 137N, 1251E, 170,  884, ST,  34, NEQ,   90,   80,   70,  110, 1003,  165,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,   X, 245,  13,       GONI, D, 
WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ,   0, 137N, 1251E, 170,  884, ST,  50, NEQ,   60,   60,   45,   70, 1003,  165,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,   X, 245,  13,       GONI, D, 
WP, 22, 2020103118, 01, CARQ,   0, 137N, 1251E, 170,  884, ST,  64, NEQ,   40,   35,   20,   50, 1003,  165,   5,   0,  10,   W,   0,   X, 245,  13,       GONI, D, 

[Windspeed]

Virac is the closest synoptic station along the path and may even get very very close to the eye.. hopefully we can get some good data even just the minimum pressure... JMA at 8.0 but I'm very surprised they limited this to 905mb.. was really expecting something 890-900mb from them Also I believe this is the first time that PAGASA has raised Warning Signal #5 in the Philippines... the max used to be #4 but they introduced #5 as a response after Haiyan's monstrous landfall.

Virac also has a sizable population around 73k. Again, not the 250k with a much larger and denser region of inhabitants, but 73k is still a good size city. So I wasn't trying to downplay impact. That being said, hopefully the eye misses them to the north or they at least have offshore flow to avoid surge.

 

Edit: Actually I feel foolish. The entire island has about 250k inhabitants. That is actually pretty sizeable for a small region. Hate to see a city get in an eyewall such as Goni's, but obviously much of the island will regardless and a lot of people are about to have a terrifying experience. Apologies for the geography mistake there. I am getting rusty.

 

Edit: Ugh...This current motion may actually land Goni's eye smack over Virac as well. Well so much for optimism.

[salbers]

Is there a link where Signal #5 has been issued? I haven't seen this yet.

[hlcater]

I can’t...