NorthHillsWx Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 8 hours ago, shaggy said: Couple videos have surfaced just waiting to see if they are legit or not. Can you post links? Thanks. Wish Josh had been able to chase this one. Looked high end at both landfalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Can you post links? Thanks. Wish Josh had been able to chase this one. Looked high end at both landfalls I'm assuming it's real. https://youtu.be/OVKlRSElrUk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Harold's core just missed greater Fiji to the SW. But Kadavu Island (pop.~10k) will take a direct hit. Images/gif courtesy of Brian McNoldy @ University of Miami RSMAS:http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/harold20/Harold_7-8Apr20_nadi.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 Bad timing perhaps. Harold's latest ERC looks to have completed and some reintensification may underway just before landfall on Kadavu Island: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 8, 2020 Share Posted April 8, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted May 12, 2020 Share Posted May 12, 2020 Might as well revive this thread as it looks like the tropics briefly turn active in the WPAC and BOB. TD 01 in the looks like it should make landfall in the Philippines as typhoon as conditions look quite favorable ahead of it as it tracks around the subtropical ridge. The ECMWF solution in the BOB is what really grabs my attention however. It's never a good thing when the Euro is showing a storm as such in this region. Long ways out on that one so things will most definitely change, but the potential is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 Vongfong has managed to intensify into a compact category 3 typhoon. Earlier forecasts had it passing just north of Samar, but I don't think it's going to avoid the island at this point. Between it and some of the solutions for 91B, it appears the NHEM tropics are beginning to wake up for the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 14, 2020 Author Share Posted May 14, 2020 Here's a visible loop of Vongfong about to make landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 15, 2020 Share Posted May 15, 2020 Models are showing a powerful cyclone hitting the northern Bay of Bengal coast next week. There has not been one in that area in quite a long time. That area used to be ground zero for huge death totals back in the 20th century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 16, 2020 Share Posted May 16, 2020 The Euro and UK now take the Bay of Bengal system a bit farther west, at least scraping the Indian coast with the center. The GFS still has a n/nne track into Bangladesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 17, 2020 Share Posted May 17, 2020 Amphan in the Bay of Bengal up to Category 4 status, rapid intensification occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Earlier today, Amphan was tracking more northward, well east of the Euro, but the track has been nnw for the last several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 18, 2020 Share Posted May 18, 2020 Amphan is likely a Cat 5 Saffir-Simpson right now. But it has a very tiny core. Outer banding is also clearly intensifying and consolidating a circular structure on MW. An ERC within 24 hrs will be underway. The real question is what happens after that ERC for the low-delta and coastal plain. Will a larger eyewall begin intensification prior to landfall or will Amphan struggle through landfall? Varying landfall intensities with a larger eyewall could be mitigatable or catastrophic event for Bangladesh. All we can so at this point is wait and see how Amphan morphs and evolves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 18, 2020 Author Share Posted May 18, 2020 Eyewall replacement is now under way, and some of the first signs are beginning to show up on IR. Amphan is still just an absolute convective mauler though. A nearby sounding from the Nicobar Islands has the EL above 100 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 19, 2020 Author Share Posted May 19, 2020 Eyewall replacement has completed, but ENE shear is beginning to make itself known. Recent microwave imagery shows it eating away at the structure on the eastern side. When viewing water vapor imagery, the thunderstorm anvils to the east of Amphan clearly show the shear vector. The shear direction may become slightly more favorable as guidance shows it gaining a more southerly component as Amphan moves north, but that should be canceled out by the increasing magnitude over the same time frame. My expectation is that Amphan will be weakening from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 19, 2020 Author Share Posted May 19, 2020 9 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Hey—can you explain more what I should be looking at here? Is it the CAPE values? It's not so much the CAPE values themselves as it is how tall the CAPE profile is. It extends past 100 mb and off the top of the SHARPpy skew-T. The output on the far right of the same table that displays the CAPE and other values shows the parcel should finally stop rising almost 18 km up! Lifting a saturated parcel that high releases a huge amount of latent heat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted May 19, 2020 Author Share Posted May 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 19, 2020 Share Posted May 19, 2020 I can't see the center, but it's likely way west of the forecast track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted July 17, 2020 Share Posted July 17, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notlikethis Posted August 26, 2020 Share Posted August 26, 2020 Didn't see this thread before posting about Bavi in the Marco/Laura banter thread. King Jong-un better hold onto his toupee! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 Category 3, 110 kts, Typhoon Maysak is approaching the islands of Kumejima, Japan, in the Okinawa prefecture. It might intensify a little more to become a Category 4 by landfall. James Reynolds is there documenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notlikethis Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 A similar Marco/Laura situation unfolding for the Korean peninsula as another yet-to-be-named typhoon is forecasted to follow on Maysak's heels into the Korean peninsula after impacting Kyushu & Shikoku in southern Japan as a strong typhoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Ugh... Typhoon Maysak: ship with 43 crew and nearly 6,000 cattle missing off Japan. Lifeboat spotted but strong winds and rain hamper rescue of crew from Philippines, New Zealand and Australia.https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/03/typhoon-maysak-ship-with-43-crew-and-nearly-6000-cattle-missing-off-japan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 3, 2020 Share Posted September 3, 2020 Typhoon Haishan now forecast to peak at 140kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notlikethis Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Classic satellite representation and will achieve super typhoon status later today, as shaggy noted: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 1 hour ago, notlikethis said: Classic satellite representation and will achieve super typhoon status later today, as shaggy noted: Already upgraded to STY. Took awhile but the wpac has put out 2 monsters this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 4, 2020 Share Posted September 4, 2020 Did Haishen achieve Category 5 status (137 kt or higher)? I'm so intrigued that the US Gulf faced a double storm threat, now, southern Japan to Korea is certainly facing a double large storm threat just 1 week later, or roughly one week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notlikethis Posted September 5, 2020 Share Posted September 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Chinook said: Did Haishen achieve Category 5 status (137 kt or higher)? I'm so intrigued that the US Gulf faced a double storm threat, now, southern Japan to Korea is certainly facing a double large storm threat just 1 week later, or roughly one week. I'm not sure how the Japan Meteorological Agency defines sustained vs gusting winds, but I believe it's forecast to peak in intensity today with the following: Central pressure 915 hPa Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt) Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt) I don't think that would quite be Cat 5 but their measurements might be different too, I'm not really sure. Here's how the Japanese government is talking about it (with help from Google Translate): The Meteorological Agency and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism held a joint press conference one after another on the 3rd and 4th, calling for the maximum caution against the approaching typhoon No. 10 using the word "special warning level". The "special alert" is one of the largest alerts that indicates an "emergency situation", such as once every several decades. It is unusual to mention from an early stage that the forecast may change depending on the future course of the typhoon. In order not to cause a serious life-threatening situation. If there is an unprecedented danger, it is necessary to be fully prepared and vigilant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Been a relatively quiet season over there but newly formed typhoon looks to approach the Philippines as a strong cat 4 in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Looks like the WPAC is going to produce our first and perhaps only Cat 5 of 2020. Goni has become intense. Edit: Ugh... This year. I completely forgot about Amphan and Harold. So yes, this makes the third Cat 5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now