Windspeed Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Don't think I've ever seen something like this before. Is it usual in cyclones?Rare is a better term. I mentioned some others above: Pam, Patricia, Wilma, Gilbert and Allen all had similar structures. There have been a number of others that developed a super intense >5nm micro-vortex eyewall within a much larger banded concentric envelope. Still, it's not something we see with regards to such extreme sub 890 hpa estimated intensities on a yearly basis. Think perhaps once every 5-10 years globally within the satellite era. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 Radar confirms that Super Typhoon Hagibis did not actually make landfall on Anatahan Island. The southern periphery of the island got scraped by the core, but the worst conditions of the inner boundary of the eyewall missed just offshore. Again, good example how satellite imagery can be deceiving as it looked like a direct hit in the posts above. Angle of sensor, parallax and lat/long postion of eye is important. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 5 hours ago, Windspeed said: 6 hours ago, etudiant said: Don't think I've ever seen something like this before. Is it usual in cyclones? Rare is a better term. I mentioned some others above: Pam, Patricia, Wilma, Gilbert and Allen all had similar structures. There have been a number of others that developed a super intense >5nm micro-vortex eyewall within a much larger banded concentric envelope. Still, it's not something we see with regards to such extreme sub 890 hpa estimated intensities on a yearly basis. Think perhaps once every 5-10 years globally within the satellite era. Thank you, a very informative summary. Has there been any explanation or modeling that would shed light on how this comes about? Why and how would a micro vortex spin up within the eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 Thank you, a very informative summary. Has there been any explanation or modeling that would shed light on how this comes about? Why and how would a micro vortex spin up within the eye? Well the micro-vortex is the tiny eye we observed with Hagibis. Really this phenomenon is no different than your average microcane or small hurricane eyewall in general, it just takes a very low shear environment + very high maximum potential intensity w/ high TCHP to get something like a Hagibis or Wilma; and even still, the aformentioned type of micro-vortex may still not occur. Otherwise, outer banding influences in the formative stages usually starves off or dissipates a smaller vortex before MPI can be achieved. Usually the intensification phase of the entire tropical cyclone's broader core cuts off or diverts outer low level convergence rather quickly away from a tiny interior vortex, if it happens to exist, while a larger eye or concentric band takes over. This is usually prior to the system even becoming a hurricane or typhoon. It's just a really chaotic and unpredictable process, at least until the main eyeband or core has consolidated, to know how large or small the dominate vort will be. In short, there really isn't a way to model the chaotic nature of such a phenomenon. It is rather part luck on how small and aligned an MCS-induced mid-level vort is in conjunction to the low level vort underneath. If that can resolve and the MPI is sky high, a small vort can become dominant and remain that way through rapid intensification all the way into the sub-900s hPa. But it's really a crapshoot to know the probability of such occurring. Sometimes the original vort max is just larger and remains that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mercurial Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 On 9/8/2019 at 1:43 PM, 1900hurricane said: Typhoon Faxai looks like it could be the rare typhoon to make landfall on Honshu as a fully tropical (not transitioning) system in the next 24 hours. Worse, it could hit the Tokyo Bay/Kanto Plain area head on. Trains were completely shuttered during the morning rush hour here in Tokyo due to this storm. Very rare for this country. Anyway, Hagibis is intriguing. Hopefully it can keep it together enough that I can get a few hours off work again. Haven't formally checked water temps, but it's probably a bathtub all the way to Honshu given how warm this August and September have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 20 hours ago, Windspeed said: Well the micro-vortex is the tiny eye we observed with Hagibis. Really this phenomenon is no different than your average microcane or small hurricane eyewall in general, it just takes a very low shear environment + very high maximum potential intensity w/ high TCHP to get something like a Hagibis or Wilma; and even still, the aformentioned type of micro-vortex may still not occur. Otherwise, outer banding influences in the formative stages usually starves off or dissipates a smaller vortex before MPI can be achieved. Usually the intensification phase of the entire tropical cyclone's broader core cuts off or diverts outer low level convergence rather quickly away from a tiny interior vortex, if it happens to exist, while a larger eye or concentric band takes over. This is usually prior to the system even becoming a hurricane or typhoon. It's just a really chaotic and unpredictable process, at least until the main eyeband or core has consolidated, to know how large or small the dominate vort will be. In short, there really isn't a way to model the chaotic nature of such a phenomenon. It is rather part luck on how small and aligned an MCS-induced mid-level vort is in conjunction to the low level vort underneath. If that can resolve and the MPI is sky high, a small vort can become dominant and remain that way through rapid intensification all the way into the sub-900s hPa. But it's really a crapshoot to know the probability of such occurring. Sometimes the original vort max is just larger and remains that way. Thank you for this more complete explanation, although it is really over my head. For a novice such as me, TCHP and MPI are not familiar terms, so there are gaps in my understanding of the process. But I gather the hurricane formation is much more chaotically competitive than I'd thought, so that very small vortices sometimes play a pivotal role. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Beautiful symmetrical tropical cyclone. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 21, 2019 Share Posted October 21, 2019 Typhoon Bualoi is about to move over/near Anatahan island in the Mariana Islands. This is the second strong typhoon to directly hit the tiny island this month. That's difficult to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 27, 2019 Share Posted October 27, 2019 Good thing cyclone Kyarr is not going to threaten anyone as it has gone into beast mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Halong's development and structure very reminiscent of Mikael in the GOM last year. Probably SS Cat 5 right now. ADT up to 7.3 / 150 kts now. This beast is cranking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Pushing 7.8 ADT! 165 kt monster... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Another fatty ridge pumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Some more from the Washington Post Capital Gang - https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/05/category-super-typhoon-halong-among-strongest-storms-ever-observed-by-satellite/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Looks like the euro and gfs being a strong typhoon into the Philippines. It's already ramping up nicely and could overperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Typhoon Kamurri forecast to have winds of 130kts as it starts to close in on the Philippines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Looks like Josh is gonna catch the northern eyewall and may the edge of the eye of Kamurri 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 14, 2019 Share Posted December 14, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 5:46 AM, shaggy said: Looks like Josh is gonna catch the northern eyewall and may the edge of the eye of Kamurri I most certainly did-- got right smack in the eye. Here's the action. It's one of my better nighttime videos. The hotel was on a generator, so there was some light to work with. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 On 12/14/2019 at 1:52 PM, HurricaneJosh said: I most certainly did-- got right smack in the eye. Here's the action. It's one of my better nighttime videos. The hotel was on a generator, so there was some light to work with. I am probably one of the few humans who doesnt have a Twitter account but I was watching on Twitter the entire time. Really thought it was gonna barely miss you south but a few hours before landfall it was clear you were gonna catch the eye. Great video as always. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/16/2019 at 6:23 PM, shaggy said: I am probably one of the few humans who doesnt have a Twitter account but I was watching on Twitter the entire time. Really thought it was gonna barely miss you south but a few hours before landfall it was clear you were gonna catch the eye. Great video as always. Thanks so much, shaggy. I'm glad you enjoyed it, and I hope you're doing well. Nice to reconnect with you like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, HurricaneJosh said: Thanks so much, shaggy. I'm glad you enjoyed it, and I hope you're doing well. Nice to reconnect with you like this. It is nice to see you pop up here again. I know I miss the old chase threads but understand the switch to Twitter. You can reach so many more people. I just need to sign up for Twitter so I can follow icyclone. Right now my wife follows you so I just use her account to follow your chases. Hope you enjoyed the holiday season and that things are good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Perfectstorm Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Hello everybody, I had on question, Did anyone hear about Sudan low?Is it really exist, and how it is affecting climate of Iraq and Iran in Winter and Spring season? Thank you. Sent from my PAR-LX1M using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 4, 2020 Share Posted April 4, 2020 Cyclone Harold is rapidly intensifying and will likely make a direct landfall in Vanuatu as a powerful upper category cyclone in the coming days. Which island that will be still remains in question but there may be multiple landfalls based on the general forecast path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 Cat 5 landfall imminent? Waiting to see if it clears out that eye completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 5, 2020 Share Posted April 5, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Extreme TC Harold has made landfall over the southern periphery of the island of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu. Fortunately this region is not as populated as the northeastern region of that large island. Whoever is there is likely getting rocked however. Nice presentation through landfall. The eyewall was strong even if old cloud debris from the ERC was still clearing out within the new eye. Will be interesting to see how much land interaction influences weakening. I suspect there will be some weakening as Harold continues ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 Incredible recovery by Extreme TC Harold from land interaction over Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu. This is a textbook study right here before our eyes. I've never seen anything like this previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted April 6, 2020 Share Posted April 6, 2020 That's a monster impact for whoever was in Harold's eyewall. Sounds like limited population but the initial hit then recovery then even stronger hit on the second island will be devastating for whoever was in that storm's path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 7, 2020 Share Posted April 7, 2020 16 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: That's a monster impact for whoever was in Harold's eyewall. Sounds like limited population but the initial hit then recovery then even stronger hit on the second island will be devastating for whoever was in that storm's path. Couple videos have surfaced just waiting to see if they are legit or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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