olafminesaw Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 Pretty much the worst possible track for Beira, a city of 500k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 ADT for Idai rebounded somewhat prior to landfall. JTWC dropped to 95 kts on the last advisory. However, the core may have regained some of that intensity as cloudtops cooled and the eye appeared less ragged. Though 95 or 105 kts isn't a huge difference, increasing convection in the eyewall versus eroding convection may have helped transport destructive gusts to surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 15, 2019 Share Posted March 15, 2019 The INGC, Mozambique's governmental natural hazards and disaster mitigation agency is on the ground evaluating damage. There has been very little word out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Idai's remnant low continues to sit and spin over Mozambique and Zimbabwe, pulling a strong moisture feed off the Mozambique Channel and Indian Ocean; daytime heating adding to atmospheric instabilty supporting intense convective plumes over the same locations, essentially firehose band precipation moving over the interior. Not to sound dreary, but I would be surprised if conditions in both countries do not escalate into an humanitarian crisis at this point. A trailing surface trough and unstable boundary appears to hold between the highlands and coastal region through Wednesday until Idai's remnant low completely dissipates/precipitates out. On top of what has already fallen, here is the modeled ECMWF totals, the bulk which falls over the next 72 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Images via International Federation of Red Cross: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 Looking at the structural failures in that imagery above, I can only say I hope the residents there evacuated. That looks pretty grim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 You guys are so dramatic. It's a population of 500,000, how is there "very little word out of there"?Their comms infrastructure isn't like that found in the US. And there have been limited resources on the ground relaying out the imagery we are just now seeing above. It was a major hit on a populated area with extreme rainfall totals still accumulating. What's not to be dramatic about? There is very real possibility of significant loss of life and a humanitarian crisis unfolding in the coming weeks/months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 17, 2019 Share Posted March 17, 2019 5 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's 35 inches of rain over a few days, and -75 on the Satellite Cloud Tops Alert. I'm confused about this though, how is there such little/devastating news about real people? It's a nonstory. People just sit in their homes while flood waters creep up on them at 1"/hr? This may be a nonstory to you, but the situation is still unfolding. No, it's not like they're just sitting in their homes waiting to drown. But people may be displaced and surged/flooded urban areas, much more rural, are difficult to reach with roads and bridges impassable. The Yatumbe River is currently expanding out across its flood plain with heavy rains continuing to fall over its interior tributaries. What is modeled, an additional 500mm/20 inches on top of what has already fallen, possible through Wednesday. News doesn't exactly flow out to Western media from this part of the world at a rapid pace like it does elsewhere. It's going to take days to weeks for resources to get out all that is happening there to verify what has occurred from a meteorological perspective; and again, a large fraction of those 500k people are currently displaced within ongoing inclement weather, which isn't exactly helping the spread of personal testimony and experiences without anyone able to reach them on the ground and report it. I'm not going to stop posting or apologize for posting about this event regardless if it seems like I am being too dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Pretty unanimous global modeling on a sub 930 mb tropical cyclone traversing the Gulf of Carpentaria late week. Looks like double landfalls for Cyclone Trevor in Australia. The initial being eastern Cape York Peninsula coast late on Tuesday. Then reintensification transitioning into rapid intensification as the severe cyclone turns poleward in the Gulf of Carpentaria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 RE: Idai https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/press-release/mozambique-cyclone-90-per-cent-beira-surrounds-damaged-destroyed/ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47609676]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47609676 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-18/mozambique-flood-death-toll-may-be-more-than-1-000-zitamar-says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted March 18, 2019 Share Posted March 18, 2019 Situation seems similar to that after the 2004 earthquake, first reports are of only a few casualties, because the worst hit sites have lost communications entirely. Looks to be very ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted March 18, 2019 Author Share Posted March 18, 2019 https://twitter.com/AP/status/1107658364388106243 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted March 19, 2019 Share Posted March 19, 2019 Not looking good. Look at all the people trapped on roofs escaping the surge/flooding. https://mobile.twitter.com/miguel_carreiro/status/1107695723506737154 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 Australia now has two intensifying cyclones. Positioned off the NW coast is Veronica, which is quickly consolidating a core and looks to become an intense cyclone in the near term. Likewise, Trevor, which is emerging over the Gulf of Carpentaria is quickly reorganizing after crossing the Cape York Peninsula. Both cyclones are unanimously modeled to become severe cyclones and there is even the possibility of an extremely rare occurrence of two Category 5s raging simultaneously near to the Australian coastline at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted March 20, 2019 Share Posted March 20, 2019 2 hours ago, Windspeed said: Australia now has two intensifying cyclones. Positioned off the NW coast is Veronica, which is quickly consolidating a core and looks to become an intense cyclone in the near term. Likewise, Trevor, which is emerging over the Gulf of Carpentaria is quickly reorganizing after crossing the Cape York Peninsula. Both cyclones are unanimously modeled to become severe cyclones and there is even the possibility of an extremely rare occurrence of two Category 5s raging simultaneously near to the Australian coastline at once. Veronica is looking nasty and it's amazing how well trevor held together. He should reorganize quickly once he is away from land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Veronica has undergone RI over night. Fairly impressive 24 hour intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Per ADT, Veronica is the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane now. JTWC forecast 140 kts. Aus Met is also forecasting a 5 on their scale. Should make landfall on late Saturday or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 21, 2019 Share Posted March 21, 2019 Severe cyclone Veronica looks to have completed an ERC and is beginning to clear out the cloud canopy over its eye. A run at Cat 5, if it's going to happen, should be commencing in short order. Atmospheric conditions including strong divergence aloft and 30°C SSTs are supportive for such run before increasing shear becomes an issue near landfall. Hopefully that shear will weaken Veronica prior to landfall, though we're more hopeful it will come ashore away from any populated communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 Despite low shear, Veronica can't seem to intensify. JTWC actually downgraded. Unsure of dry air intrusion or core alignment. Microwave shows multiple concentric bands. Probably all downhill from here as far as intensity. Likewise, Trevor seems to be struggling with 700-600mb southwesterly shear, tilting the MLC northeast of the LLC. Despite -85°C intense convective cloudstops, it's running out of time. Doesn't look like either cyclone will come anywhere close to the 920s millibars in pressure despite days of unanimous modeling support to the contrary. Looks like JTWC's earlier intensity forecasts are also going to bust hard on both systems. But again, Cat 5s are extremely difficult to forecast even with days of good modeling consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 23, 2019 Share Posted March 23, 2019 Trevor's landfall is imminent. JTWC has the intensity around 105 kts. ADT still supports that. Looks like a solid Cat 3 landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 24, 2019 Share Posted March 24, 2019 Veronica's core is slowing down and will eventually begin a SW to WSW motion in close proximity to the Australian coast before or just after landfall. Though cloudtops have cooled and ADT increased to 115 kts over night, the eye has become rather ragged in the last several hours. With a slow motion and bend in track in close proximity to coast, should a landfall occur, it may take a while. This region of Australian coast is sparsely populated. Roebourne is the only major township beyond several coastal getaways and they're roughly a few thousand people combined. This area no stranger to cyclones however. They should be prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 25, 2019 Share Posted March 25, 2019 Cyclone Idai: Death toll rises to 750 as Mozambique city of Beira begins long road to recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 24, 2019 Share Posted April 24, 2019 Comoros island is seeing gusts to 75mph as a 100kt cyclone misses them just north. Gonna make a second landfall around 115kts tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 26, 2019 Share Posted April 26, 2019 As it turns out cyclone Kenneth went through a period of RI and made landfall as 140mph storm. Strongest in Mozambique history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted April 29, 2019 Share Posted April 29, 2019 TC Fani is looking to threaten India as a strong hurricane in a few days. Projected landfall of 110kts as of the latest advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Fani is putting on a hell of a show right before landfall CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.0 / 935.7mb/115.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.0 6.2 7.2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Fani's Adj T numbers had already hit 140 kts. The earlier pinhole eye had also cleared and warmed. Though unofficial, Fani could very well have already attained Cat 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. I don't know if the cyclone will maintain upper Cat 4 to Cat 5 intensity all the way through landfall however, as Fani's forecast track moves its core slightly adjacent and in close proximity to the shape of the Indian coastline for a while prior to actual landfall. Disruption of the core and eyewall interaction with land should weaken it before official landfall occurs. Regardless, this is a very powerful tropical cyclone, and with intense winds impacting a lot of shoreline, this cyclone has the potental to be a devestating event to multiple communities with a high population density. Edit: Fani, not "Lani". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted May 2, 2019 Share Posted May 2, 2019 Impressive eye on radar. http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/radar_main.php?adta=vsk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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