southmdwatcher Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 The most current observation at Saipan is 80F, which is one degree higher than last observation. Pressure down from 978 to 974mb. Winds are NNE 53knts gusts to 85knts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 This an EarthCam from Saipan beach, it is still functioning and has clear audio. Loud!! https://www.earthcam.com/world/northernmarianaislands/saipan/?cam=saipan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Without Guam radar, hard to tell how much of the eyewall Saipan is likely to get, Looks like Tinian is likely to have the eye go party over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Saipan latest observation is now 81F pressure 970mb and winds NE 59knts gusts 79knts Observation data from GREarth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 81F, pressure 968mb, winds NE 57knts gusts 76knts. Visibility has improved to 2 miles, last few observations were a mile or less visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Still reporting, pressure dropped 1.3 mb in 10 minutes to 966 mb. Wind still NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Statement from NWS Guam. ... AS SUPER TYPHOON YUTU (31W) CONTINUES TO APPROACH...SUSTAINED TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 130 TO 160 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 185 MPH. DEVASTATING DAMAGE IS EXPECTED. COLLAPSE OF SOME RESIDENTIAL STRUCTURES WILL PUT LIVES AT RISK. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE DAMAGE. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK STRUCK BY THE WIND BLOWN DEBRIS WILL BE INJURED OR KILLED. MOST HOMES WILL SUSTAIN SEVERE DAMAGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR COMPLETE ROOF FAILURE AND WALL COLLAPSE. MOST INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED...WITH OTHERS EXPERIENCING PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL DAMAGE. MOST LOW RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED...AND OTHERS WILL HAVE PARTIAL ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. NUMEROUS WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS RESULTING IN FALLING GLASS...WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAYS TO WEEKS AFTER THE STORM. CONSIDERABLE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO LARGE BUILDINGS IS POSSIBLE. ELECTRICITY AND WATER WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR DAYS AND PERHAPS WEEKS AFTER THE STORM PASSES. MOST TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. FALLEN TREES MAY CUT OFF RESIDENTIAL AREAS FOR DAYS TO WEEKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 GREarth last report for Saipan temperature 82F, pressure 965mb, winds NE 53knts gusts 79knts. Station may be offline now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Absolutely epic conditions must be occurring in Saipan currently. Surprisingly the island is pretty built up. https://mobile.twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1055128171014709248?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 8 hours ago, shaggy said: It would be nice for Saipan if this westward motion were to continue for a few hours as that would certainly spare them the core but if it "wobbles" back north much at all then they could get the eyewall. Gonna be a very close call for them. Just an incredible looking storm right now. Well next to worse case scenario for Saipan. They at least got the calm of the eye for a little bit. Worst case would have been in the eyewall for the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Very clean microwave during landfall. Distinct concentric features with an ERC in early stages. Two wind maxima were probably experienced in Tinian and Saipan with the larger outter band and insanely intense inner eyewall. Infared can be deceiving for exact path of the wall over those islands as well. The Himawari satellite is positioned at a plane of lower latitude and at an acute angle south of the typhoon. IR images reflect colder cloud tops that only start to resolve at the mid-to-upper level of the eye. You must account for the height of the eyewall cylinder down to the surface at that distance. A visible image with sunlight at the same angle will show the lower-level circulation, closer to the surface, at the bottom of the eyewall cylinder. It's frustrating we don't have observable radar for a US territory besides, but it is what it is. Luckily we did have the clean microwave scan at landfall. And perhaps the airport/military will have some closed network remote sensing before all hell broke lose; and hopefully some instrumentation survived for pressure distribution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 AVN loop of Yutu through landfall: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 And the non-colorized loop: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 So 18z would be about 1-2 hours before sunrise there? Damage will be enormous from the looks of those images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Night time visible band uses moon light and some other remote sensing techniques. You can see the stadium shape of the eye down near the surface and lower level. The northern portion of Saipan may have missed the worst of the eyewall but it's still a guess at this point. The southern half may have got the worst. Clearly all of Tinian experienced full frontal and backside winds. I want to refrain from hyperbole, but there probably is catastrophic devestation for anything not built within the strictest of code. Image courtesy of CIMSS and William Straka and Scott Bachmeier: Use the direct link here if you want full resolution from CIMSS as the GIF is too large to post or is just will not animate correctly as posted to the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Anyone know what kind of building code they have in the Marianas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 This gas station awning is blue shed 2.0: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 Yutu appears to be reintensifying. The ERC completed many hours ago and both microwave and visible imagery confirm a large and well-developed eyewall that continues to clear out. It is surrounded by a rather large CDO -- a big donut. Yutu may also not be done with land either. Some of the globals are flirting with Luzon. It is possible Yutu could even have a south of west motion for a time as heights may rebuild west under a lifting trough to the north. That trough was originally capturing Yutu, but that solution is losing recent model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Yutu continues to buzzsaw along due west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 On 10/26/2018 at 7:06 AM, olafminesaw said: If the eye were less ragged we'd be talking about yutu returning to its former glory. There's pretty good model agreement now on a track similar to Mangkhut. I feel for the small communities trying to rebuild there, if it does indeed make landfall (hopefully with some substantial weakening beforehand). It has continued to trend to the south and now looks to make a more sizable impact on the Philippines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Just came across this from Typhoon Jebi. The Hong Kong videos earlier this season got a lot of attention, but this stuff out of the Osaka area is pretty dramatic too. Kansai International Airport gusted to 130 mph and even the downtown business district of Osaka had a 106 mph gust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 1 hour ago, gymengineer said: Just came across this from Typhoon Jebi. The Hong Kong videos earlier this season got a lot of attention, but this stuff out of the Osaka area is pretty dramatic too. Kansai International Airport gusted to 130 mph and even the downtown business district of Osaka had a 106 mph gust. Great find. at the cars being tossed around at :40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 The sine wave with the roofing material of that bike/bus stop awning at the very beginning was amazing from a physics/ math point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 12, 2018 Share Posted November 12, 2018 HWRF has TC Gaja making landfall in India near Cat 4 intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted February 25, 2019 Share Posted February 25, 2019 Super Typhoon Wutip was upgraded to Cat 5. No, not unusual to see those in the WPAC, but it's a first for February. In fact, this is the first classified Cat 5 ever in the northern hemisphere for the month. 28°C SSTs around the Marinas are still warm enough to support the intensity, but atmospheric favorability and outflow for this cyclone is textbook. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted March 14, 2019 Share Posted March 14, 2019 Cyclone Idai, moving across the Mozambique Channel has completed an ERC and slightly reintensified to Cat 3. The internal structure of the cyclone has taken on annular characteristics. It is forecast to make landfall near the city of Beira in Mozambique. Despite Idai's intensity, flash flooding will be the greatest threat to the city and surrounding region. Certainly storm surge up the Pungwe River also poses a dangerous threat to life and property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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