olafminesaw Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, shaggy said: It's a race now to see if it finishes the ewrc before reaching Guam. I think it completed a few hours ago, but it ingested a ton of dry air in the process. This has caused a lopsided eye and a weakness on the north side of the storm. It seem to be starting to mix out the dry air and wrap convection around the eye, as the structure stabilizes. Weakening should at least stop before reaching Guam, and has a chance at re-intensification before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: I think it completed a few hours ago, but it ingested a ton of dry air in the process. This has caused a lopsided eye and a weakness on the north side of the storm. It seem to be starting to mix out the dry air and wrap convection around the eye, as the structure stabilizes. Weakening should at least stop before reaching Guam, and has a chance at re-intensification before landfall. Yeah unless we see that eye clearing out again I'd say strengthening is unlikely before Guam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 What is Guam's tip over speed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 Looked like a dry air intrusion for a while. Now it clearly has the appearance of an ERC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 23, 2023 Share Posted May 23, 2023 Jim Edds will have a daytime intercept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Man, very interesting system. That dry air entrainment and ERC hit at the right time and really disrupted the core. Radar showed the northern section of the core pretty ragged before the radar went offline. PGUM reported gusts just shy of typhoon force about 30 minutes ago. It also looks like we got a fairly significant wobble north. Chasing ain’t for the faint of heart, and it takes extra special fortitude to play island roulette as Josh would call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Rather substantial weakening and the track shifted well north of the island. Almost safe to say it's going to be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Kind of hard to tell from the now out of operation radar, but I don’t think this has collapsed that much given the IR presentation. Obviously not high end 4 but it’s at least a high end 3 I believe especially in the southern part. The track is the bigger issue IMO. Now the northern and western part of Guam is in the surge zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 Rapid clearing of the eye now that it’s passing Guam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 I'm not used to looking at Pacific models so can anyone recommend a reliable one for tracking Mawar? I have a friend in Taiwan atm and am looking to give a bit of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, monadnocks said: I'm not used to looking at Pacific models so can anyone recommend a reliable one for tracking Mawar? I have a friend in Taiwan atm and am looking to give a bit of guidance. https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=WP02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 This system is a great example of why recon is so important. Radar went down and left forecasters with limited ground observation and IR data just as the center collapsed some, making center fixes more difficult. Far from an ideal situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 24, 2023 Share Posted May 24, 2023 A second RI phase occuring.These, 8 hours apart: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 6 hours ago, olafminesaw said: https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=WP02 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 You can see the intensity roller coaster from the past 48hrs. 140kts to 90kts, now back to 140kts and still rising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 If the GFS is correct, Mawar tracks west towards Luzon and stalls east of Taiwan around 29th, then is caught up in the subtropical jet and moves all the way across the Pacific around 35-40N to slam into the west coast of the U.S. by about June 8-10. That would dump a lot of subtropical heat into the circulation and might be a signal of a very hot spell in the central and eastern U.S. by mid June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Beast mode https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=02W&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Guam got very lucky at the last minute. We'll see how many of these monsters are generated this season with the strengthening Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Mawar sat image is reminiscent of Dorian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Looking more annular in the latest frames 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 22 minutes ago, eyewall said: Looking more annular in the latest frames You can see the mesovrticies already but I imagine when the sun comes up over there it's gonna be spectacular looking eye 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Looking more annular in the latest frames Plenty of banding per microwave. I was thinking that annular cyclones have a somewhat lower intensity ceiling? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Now has a very similar appearance to Dorian Edit: Didn't even realize this was already posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 25, 2023 Share Posted May 25, 2023 Latest IR eye temp on the ADT is +20C and still warming. 903MB 155kt is the intensity estimate from the advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 This is from yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 28.42" of rain fell at one location in Guam. GFS continues to stall Mawar east of Taiwan, but latest track across N Pac is closer to Gulf of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted May 26, 2023 Share Posted May 26, 2023 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=himawari9-meso&product=vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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