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Plains States Observations and Discussion Thread


lookingnorth
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On 8/23/2019 at 10:18 AM, lookingnorth said:

We got some nice thunderstorms here in Norman last night. It was the most significant rain we got since I returned here in late June. I really liked the cool weather this morning. Also, am I the only person from Oklahoma and states north on this forum? I feel like there's almost no one from my area for whatever reason.

Maybe Oklahoma City is getting a very wet August?  By the way, 87mph wind report near Piedmont, OK. I have heard that there was a probable tornado near Edmond.

pnCmVRl.jpg

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18 hours ago, Chinook said:

Maybe Oklahoma City is getting a very wet August?  By the way, 87mph wind report near Piedmont, OK. I have heard that there was a probable tornado near Edmond.

pnCmVRl.jpg

Yeah we had a bunch of storms last night, but it was worse just north of me. The OKC airport had its fifth wettest August on record (data since 1948).

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We might have severe weather problems on Halloween around these parts into KS. Trough orientation has become increasingly favorable with time and good moisture available for the time of year (low-mid 60s dewpoints).

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Looks like the best shot at severe convection will be in the vicinity of dryline/cold front intersection over south-central Kansas into north-central Oklahoma late Wednesday.

IMG-6449.jpg

Farther south, moisture may be slightly richer, but weaker forcing and more modest lapse rates should exist. CAMs attempt to initiate a few isolated cells down toward I-40 near OKC.

Near or northeast of Wichita, linear storm modes are more likely as deep shear will be nearly parallel to a surging cold front. 

Between these two areas is where the higher likelihood may exist for a few longer-lived discrete/semi-discrete storms.

Keeping an eye on this. We are getting into the cool season, so it’s more of a stronger shear / modest instability setup. Not a high-end scenario, but robust for late October standards. 
IMG-6445.gif

The typical biases exist. HRRR may be mixing out low level moisture too quick and surging faster (too fast?) with the cold front. 3km NAM is juicier and is just a bit slower with frontal progression. 

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A tornado watch will be issued fairly soon (Wichita, Oklahoma City)

Quote
  Mesoscale Discussion 2163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

   Areas affected...Western/northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 301815Z - 301945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for supercells this
   afternoon across western/north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
   These storms will have a threat for large hail and a few tornadoes.

 

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Almost everything is over performing so far. Moisture, mid-level lapse rates, CI (much earlier and farther south than most CAMs) and instability. Mesoanalysis shows substantial low-level CAPE near the developing convection in western Oklahoma, which HRRR handled very poorly. There’s virtually no capping out there and the 18z LMN sounding suggests there’s minimal capping remaining near I-35.

IMG-6523.jpg

WoFS is running and several members show CI even south of I-40. Latest SREF severe probabilities have also increased substantially in central/southern Oklahoma. 
IMG-6524.jpg
SREF_prob_combined_0.01_ESHR30_1000__f00

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Sunday night. The convective allowing models have, perhaps a mess of a squall line, perhaps a number of supercells. There should be with higher storm-relative helicity available with a chance of significant tornadoes.

48hr_HRRR_reflectivity.png

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6 hours ago, andyhb said:

Holy shit 70 dBZ debris ball west of Newalla moving towards Harrah in the E OKC suburbs!

This tornado hit my brother's house. Just got off video chat with him. Significant damage in neighborhood. He's been there for 9 years and first time actually getting hit by a tornado. 

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

That was not on my bingo card for last night. Central OK was on the fringe of the 2%. If that was going to happen would have been looking for it a couple days ago with the 10 hatch, or tomorrow with the next one.

More of this coming in the next 48 hours.

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