Potential Hermine Impacts/Obs Part 2

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The rain is supposed to come later. It is supposed to fall apart through out the day.

as the storm weakens and starts a SSW movement?  Good luck with that.

[Brian5671]

GFS Bone dry, has the big rains closer to the center of the storm which matches up with radar

[forkyfork]

i hope the public is aware of the potential light rain tonight. these 30 mph gusts are brutal too

[NJwx85]

I'd say little to no chance of more than a few sprinkles making it into NYC or NJ. The stronger echos are now rotating SW and unless the system actually landfalls most rain will fall offshore. In fact, a big dry slug is now pushing onto LI.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

I'd say little to no chance of more than a few sprinkles making it into NYC or NJ. The stronger echos are now rotating SW and unless the system actually landfalls most rain will fall offshore. In fact, a big dry slug is now pushing onto LI.

pretty much.  One last bustola (the QPF) for this crazy storm to make it a trifecta.

[ag3]

Coastal NJ, NYC, Coastal CT and LI have a chance at random bands that can drop .25"-.75" in a hurry. Anywhere west of that, very low chance.

Rgem, Ukmet + Hrrr all show this potential. Especially for Queens and east.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

pretty much.  One last bustola (the QPF) for this crazy storm to make it a trifecta.

Hermine has been one disappointment for me after another. I feel like we've been tracking it forever. If I recall correctly it was declared an invest over three weeks ago.

[Euripides]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i hope the public is aware of the potential light rain tonight. these 30 mph gusts are brutal too

I am detecting a little bit of sarcasm there ;-)

Time to set up the sprinklers this evening and tomorrow morning.

[allgame830]

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hermine has been one disappointment for me after another. I feel like we've been tracking it forever. If I recall correctly it was declared an invest over three weeks ago.

I think it was declared an invest around the 18-20th of August if I remember.  I was in Disney World starting on the 22nd of August and I remember keeping an eye on it because it was a potential threat to Southern/Central Florida and we all know how that turned out.  

This tropical cyclone has been one pain in the ass!!! Figures its a "she".... LOL HA

[NJwx85]

8 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

IMO you deserve the disappointment for weenie'ing out so hard on it. next time get less excited.  it helps control the feelings of disappointment.

I'm not just talking about in terms of local impacts up here. I really thought at one point we would have a strong hurricane in the Bahamas and then in the Gulf. It got its act together in the last 12-24 hours prior to landfall, but it was still developing a core when she came ashore.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I think it was declared an invest around the 18-20th of August if I remember.  I was in Disney World starting on the 22nd of August and I remember keeping an eye on it because it was a potential threat to Southern/Central Florida and we all know how that turned out.  

This tropical cyclone has been one pain in the ass!!! Figures its a "she".... LOL HA

8/17/16 was the first day

[NJwx85]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

8/17/16 was the first day

So just shy of three weeks to date.

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

IMO you deserve the disappointment for weenie'ing out so hard on it. next time get less excited.  it helps control the feelings of disappointment.

despite the fact that you are blantantly trolling, you do bring up a good point.  Tropical systems out of the tropics are often fickle and poorly modeled.   One has to keep expectations in check closer in that the typical mid latitude cyclone.  A model hit 48 hrs out on a noreaster has a better chance of verifying that a 48 hour agreement on a tropical system here.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

IMO you deserve the disappointment for weenie'ing out so hard on it. next time get less excited.  it helps control the feelings of disappointment.

What? Every model had a  tropical storm near the coast.

[NJwx85]

Just now, Snow88 said:

What? Every model had a  tropical storm near the coast.

Do you remember when every model was showing a strong hurricane coming across SE FL and people were throwing around the Katrina comparisons? 

[Morris]

All coastal tropical storm warnings discontinued for Hermine. Last NHC advisory issued.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Morris said:

All coastal tropical storm warnings discontinued for Hermine. Last NHC advisory issued.

Finally

Time to put Hermine to rest.

[donsutherland1]

Forecasting Hermine’s trajectory was exceptionally challenging.  All things considered, I believe the NHC did a good job considering the degree of challenge involved.

First, no strong block was present to steer Hermine to landfall in the Middle Atlantic region.

Second, an extended period during which steering currents would weaken dramatically, leaving the storm’s track subject to the changing synoptic features occurred. When steering currents are weak, it’s very difficult to be sure where the storm will track with any great degree of precision.

While a trough capture could have brought Hermine to landfall, no such capture was reliably modeled (a few runs in a few cycles featured that possibility, but the bulk of the modeling did not support it).

The largest factor that precluded a clear landfall scenario with a rare WNW, W, WSW trajectory was the absence of Atlantic blocking. The Arctic Oscillation was as follows during the past five days:

September 2: +0.566
September 3: +0.301
September 4: +0.061
September 5: +0.298
September 6: +1.099

Two recent cases of storms taking such an unusual track involved a later February 2010 snowstorm that brought 20.9” snow to New York City and Sandy that made landfall along the New Jersey coast. Both cases featured very strong blocking. Even as wave lengths are shorter in the summer/fall, they exceptional blocking precluded Sandy’s escape out to sea.

February 25-27, 2010 Snowstorm:

From NWS Mount Holly:

An area of low pressure developed off the Carolina coast late Wednesday night February 24th and then strengthened as it tracked northward to near Long Island, New York by Thursday evening. As low pressure aloft deepened over the Mid Atlantic coast Thursday night into Friday, the surface low retrograded and moved westward into northern New Jersey and southern New York.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/02252010wss

http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/NROWXII/Hanes.ppt.pptx (See slide 15 for the track)

Arctic Oscillation:
February 22: -4.403 (1st lowest for the date)
February 23: -4.591 (1st lowest for the date)
February 24: -4.211 (1st lowest for the date)
February 25: -3.818 (3rd lowest for the date)
February 26: -3.230 (7th lowest for the date)
February 27: -3.118 (8th lowest for the date)

Sandy: October 29-30, 2012:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf (See p.127 for the track)

Arctic Oscillation:
October 25: -2.912 (1st lowest for the date)
October 26: -2.393 (2nd lowest for the date)
October 27: -2.058 (2nd lowest for the date)
October 28: -1.792 (5th lowest for the date)
October 29: -1.718 (4th lowest for the date)
October 30: -2.075 (2nd lowest for the date)

[Brian5671]

nice summary Don.  Uncle W also noted the absence of an NAO and AO block late last week too.   Many though the high building in to the Northeast of the storm would be enough, but in the end it was not.

[donsutherland1]

 

nice summary Don.  Uncle W also noted the absence of an NAO and AO block late last week too.   Many though the high building in to the Northeast of the storm would be enough, but in the end it was not.

Thanks.

If this were late September or October, perhaps the high sliding by to the north would have been sufficiently strong to steer Hermine to landfall.

[NJHurricane]

RIP Hermine.....Rotate In Place

 

for all the fits it gave the models, it's demise has been well modeled these past few runs...track, and the shrinking of the wind and precip fields on its closest approach have been pretty consistent

[Stormlover74]

The signs of Hermine's outer bands

 

[psv88]

Been raining at home all day, around .25

[nycsnow]

Can anyone tell me wave heights or where to get wave height forecast?

[psv88]

Islip had 0.36 as of 5:00, and they are getting in a good band now, they may break 0.50 from this event. 

[RU848789]

 

There's no friggin' way this storm is ending up in NJ.  It's ~250 miles from Newark now (despite your implication, earlier, that it's barely more than 100 miles from EWR) and, at most will make it back to ~150 miles from Newark and by the time it gets that close it's going to be smaller and weaker with only 50 mph winds and it will be starting its turn to the NE, after which it will dissipate, according to the NHC.  And it's highly doubtful that any more TS warnings are going back up (tiny chance for Nassau).  

I personally don't care much about moderation for a weather board, which is mostly just fun for me, but there are people a bit less knowledgeable who might actually believe what you post and that would be unfortunate.  I assume you mean well and you have a lot of energy, which is good, but you really ought to stop posting inaccurately and as if you know more about what is going to happen than the NHC.  Just my $0.02.  

 

 

back up your claims with evidence before posting nonsense. 

red flag that ur trolling.
 

Having trouble with multi-quote - hope this comes through, although even if it does, I'm guessing it might be deleted, but I can live with that.  Anyway, wonder where Bacon Strips is with his apology to me, as it turns out he was wrong again, badly, as all TS warnings have been dropped and nobody is going to see TS winds or any rain of consequence, as I've been saying for 2 days now.  I know the mods and others backed me up on this, but how is this clown still allowed to post, as he rarely offers any evidence for his outrageous predictions, which, in addition to being wildly wrong, could lead some who aren't well versed in meteorology to make poor decisions that affect one's safety (as he is certainly proficient at posting maps and twisted reasoning that could fool some)?  

Oh yeah, on top of that, after these posts last night, he has the gall to send me a private message, saying, "how does it feel when ur going to be wrong again....tomorrow? loll.  go troll another forum, stuff ur good at."  If there were ever a poster child for being a Tropical Troll it would be him.  See everyone for the first snow threat, unless some unexpected tropical system threatens us.  

I'll leave y'all with this, which is a take-off on an old meme, but is at least worth a chuckle...

[larrye]

 

Do you remember when every model was showing a strong hurricane coming across SE FL and people were throwing around the Katrina comparisons? 

If I remember correctly, it was only the HWRF that was showing a strong hurricane at that point.  

[NycStormChaser]

 

 

Having trouble with multi-quote - hope this comes through, although even if it does, I'm guessing it might be deleted, but I can live with that.  Anyway, wonder where Bacon Strips is with his apology to me, as it turns out he was wrong again, badly, as all TS warnings have been dropped and nobody is going to see TS winds or any rain of consequence, as I've been saying for 2 days now.  I know the mods and others backed me up on this, but how is this clown still allowed to post, as he rarely offers any evidence for his outrageous predictions, which, in addition to being wildly wrong, could lead some who aren't well versed in meteorology to make poor decisions that affect one's safety (as he is certainly proficient at posting maps and twisted reasoning that could fool some)?  

Oh yeah, on top of that, after these posts last night, he has the gall to send me a private message, saying, "how does it feel when ur going to be wrong again....tomorrow? loll.  go troll another forum, stuff ur good at."  If there were ever a poster child for being a Tropical Troll it would be him.  See everyone for the first snow threat, unless some unexpected tropical system threatens us.  

I'll leave y'all with this, which is a take-off on an old meme, but is at least worth a chuckle...

He was right in the sense it came a lot further west than everyone thought it would. 

[Santa Claus]

Seems like from the visible that the circulations are decoupling.

[e46and2]

wetaher shouldn't be so personal.  there will always be two camps in every storm.  someone will be wrong.  that isn't what it's about.  if it were a contest, we would have a section for that (and we have).

i agree with Rjay requiring bacon strips (and anyone else) to provide empirical support when you make claims/assertions.  Otherwise, we are all entitled to our opinion of how a storm will play out.  if you have to constantly remind everyone how right you were, it might be a flaw in your character too.  don't be the kanye west of a weather forum.  i've never seen bluewave start a sentence in the vein of  "like i've been saying for days" and yet he is still probably recognized as the best poster in this sub-forum by many.  substance over ego.