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Potential Hermine Impacts/Obs Part 2


Rjay

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they keep doing this slightly stuff each run.  eventually they'll get it there.

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The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly southwestward

well, at-least i'll be right with the track.   The intensity is a whole other ballgame, but wouldn't be surprised for the NYC area to be waking up to tropical storm force gusts.

sleep time. ZzZzzzz

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Gradual weakening is to be anticipated as it's over sub 26C sea surface temperatures now, but due to the anomalous warmth of the water, it's sufficient to essentially permit strength maintenance for a little while. Once it enters the shelf, it'll weaken faster.

 

More importantly, the trajectory is still WNW at 9mph. Interesting situation to track and very rare.

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24 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

visualize this map, and a track all the way back to NJ...since that's what it'll most likely do

 

atlantic_basin2_static.png

There's no friggin' way this storm is ending up in NJ.  It's ~250 miles from Newark now (despite your implication, earlier, that it's barely more than 100 miles from EWR) and, at most will make it back to ~150 miles from Newark and by the time it gets that close it's going to be smaller and weaker with only 50 mph winds and it will be starting its turn to the NE, after which it will dissipate, according to the NHC.  And it's highly doubtful that any more TS warnings are going back up (tiny chance for Nassau).  

I personally don't care much about moderation for a weather board, which is mostly just fun for me, but there are people a bit less knowledgeable who might actually believe what you post and that would be unfortunate.  I assume you mean well and you have a lot of energy, which is good, but you really ought to stop posting inaccurately and as if you know more about what is going to happen than the NHC.  Just my $0.02.  

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

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50 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

There's no friggin' way this storm is ending up in NJ.  It's ~250 miles from Newark now (despite your implication, earlier, that it's barely more than 100 miles from EWR) and, at most will make it back to ~150 miles from Newark and by the time it gets that close it's going to be smaller and weaker with only 50 mph winds and it will be starting its turn to the NE, after which it will dissipate, according to the NHC.  And it's highly doubtful that any more TS warnings are going back up (tiny chance for Nassau).  

I personally don't care much about moderation for a weather board, which is mostly just fun for me, but there are people a bit less knowledgeable who might actually believe what you post and that would be unfortunate.  I assume you mean well and you have a lot of energy, which is good, but you really ought to stop posting inaccurately and as if you know more about what is going to happen than the NHC.  Just my $0.02.  

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

The models now have it going near NJ but weak like you said. Still, the models actually had the right idea in the beginning with the low going back to NJ but much weaker.

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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

There's no friggin' way this storm is ending up in NJ.  It's ~250 miles from Newark now (despite your implication, earlier, that it's barely more than 100 miles from EWR) and, at most will make it back to ~150 miles from Newark and by the time it gets that close it's going to be smaller and weaker with only 50 mph winds and it will be starting its turn to the NE, after which it will dissipate, according to the NHC.  And it's highly doubtful that any more TS warnings are going back up (tiny chance for Nassau).  

I personally don't care much about moderation for a weather board, which is mostly just fun for me, but there are people a bit less knowledgeable who might actually believe what you post and that would be unfortunate.  I assume you mean well and you have a lot of energy, which is good, but you really ought to stop posting inaccurately and as if you know more about what is going to happen than the NHC.  Just my $0.02.  

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

back up your claims with evidence before posting nonsense. 

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I personally don't care much about moderation for a weather board, which is mostly just fun for me

red flag that ur trolling.
 

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2 hours ago, USCG RS said:

f7c92091a656e4b282f9b8a9bf19df7c.gif
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/0...l5-bd-long.html

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

still moving westward and some bands are trying to get in here later on,perhaps it's last hurrah. quite remarkable how far west hermine has gotten compared to the forecast of curve and back out east,he's still going towards the central jersey coast a.t.m.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had some minor coastal flooding along the Great South Bay with the early morning high tide.

 

USGS.01309225.106550.62619..20160831.20160907..0..gif

 

..Pikes Beach(ocean beach) in westhampton dunes had 'washups' to the dune but no 'washovers'..

moriches bay was similar with minor coastal flooding..

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20 minutes ago, tim said:

..Pikes Beach(ocean beach) in westhampton dunes had 'washups' to the dune but no 'washovers'..

moriches bay was similar with minor coastal flooding..

Coastal interests really caught a break with the wide swing right of the track Saturday and Sunday preventing the greater coastal flooding and stronger winds.

It reminded me of the old days of modeling in the 70's and 80's where model misses like this were a common occurrence that you just were used to.

 

 

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2 hours ago, BxWeatherwatcher said:

still moving westward and some bands are trying to get in here later on,perhaps it's last hurrah. quite remarkable how far west hermine has gotten compared to the forecast of curve and back out east,he's still going towards the central jersey coast a.t.m.

 

Yep, Hermine looks to end up much more westward than anticipated even 12 hours ago, although impacts should still be minor for NJ/NY, as Hermine is weakening and should be a pretty weak storm during its closest pass to both the NJ shore and LI shore.  On the whole, the models really performed pretty poorly, overall, for most of Hermine's life, except for maybe when it was a TS/Cane in the eastern Gulf and from there to NC - before and after were pretty bad.  Here's the latest track guidance from the NHC...

[Image of 3-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

 

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