'16/'17 Windstorm Discussion/Link Sharing for the Pacific Northwest

[Monsoonchaser]

Hello!

There doesn't seem much activity about the PNW on the forums, so I thought I would start a thread for one of my favorite weather events of this region: Pacific borne extratropical cyclones and the strong and often damaging wind events they cause during the fall and winter.

August 29th 2015 Windstorm

The strongest storms that affect the coastal and western portions of OR, WA, and BC develop off the coast of CA and are fed by strong upper level jets and propelled almost parallel to the coast as they make landfall. Western Washington is often heavily affected by these storms as winds are squeezed between the Olympic and Cascade mountains. There are many other storm tracks that cause wind events however.

Oct. 2015 Developing Windstorm

Professor Cliff Mass provides a graph showing that strongest windstorms occur during neutral ENSO periods.

Latest ENSO forecasts have a 55-60% chance of La Nina for this fall/winter but we are currently experiencing neutral ENSO conditions.

Things to watch for windstorm development in my amateur opinion:

- Location and strength of jet stream as the Pacific gets more active. Rapid cyclogenesis occurs under intense jet streaks.

- How tropical storms in the WPacific transition into post-tropical disturbances carried into the E. Pacific (strongest PNW windstorm on record was previously a typhoon).

- Whether a windstorm is preceded by an atmospheric river event. The more saturated the soils get, the more tree toppling we get.

- Timing of storm arrival. Early Fall = More tree branch breaks and power failures. Mid Winter = Less tree damage.

Windstorm Info Links:

http://www.climate.washington.edu/stormking/

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2010MWR3213.1

Discussion and link sharing would be awesome!

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