Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Looks like you're going to get what you want. The models haven't done terrible with this system, except for that one set of runs that had the system tracking over us. Unfortunately, we are in an area that is frequently affected by small changes in track, and things usually go in the wrong direction within 24 hours. 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Not to disappointed in missing out on rain but it is funny to see how we always miss out on extreme weather solutions...still paying for Jan 2k. I would love to know why that is, if there is something about the Raleigh area that makes this happen so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I would love to know why that is, if there is something about the Raleigh area that makes this happen so often. There's usually a fairly narrow corridor of extreme weather with any event. And NC is a wide state. And these types of events aren't all that common anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Who wants 6" of rain though......I switch with ya guys west of me hehe, 1-3" is perfect wont flood or turn everything into as swamp and will erase any "drought" issues, 6-10" most of it in 10-12 hrs is just blah..... Luckily we should deal with it fine it takes a lot of rain fast to flood roads around here and a few inches a hr is surprisingly manageable for the most part, and usually in tropical systems we have storm surge running up the rivers making them flow backwards and this really hinders drainage of runoff causing storm drains to actually push water out of them versus the other way around making the street flooding even worse...we should have none of that. I bet you would...I have seen pics from a friend that's in a flood plain in eastern NC...no thanks :-). This is going to be bad for you guys, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I would love to know why that is, if there is something about the Raleigh area that makes this happen so often. It doesn't necessarily. Last 180 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I would love to know why that is, if there is something about the Raleigh area that makes this happen so often. We say the same thing here, there have been tons of times we got rain or 1-2" while Raleigh gets 4-6" of snow, and especially ice storms the wedge erodes out here and we are 33 and rain while RDU is 29 and sleet/ice....it kinda happens everywhere, extreme weather events are pretty rare thats why they are extreme so while the "potential" is there for big events to happen it doesnt mean they will. Like today, there is potential for me to get 10-15" of rain, but realistically its much more likely that I get 4-6", people tend to focus on the worst case in every event, and then expect that to be the outcome. Fact is these extreme events just dont pan out most of the time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: Just a small difference in amount totals expected. Wth is she wearing? rains have started on north Chatham... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Raining steadily here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Model huggers never learn.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Looking at the radar looks like we are going to get slammed with rain down here in Jville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Model huggers never learn.... Oops, I thought I was at the DBM* website. *Discussing Brick's Moments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Model huggers never learn.... The low is still way down in GA and the south to north motion will eventually go east to west, this pivot will be over central and eastern NC and those places will not see much if any let up in the rain for the next 12 hrs or so.....I wouldnt be surprised to see the Triangle get 3-4" more even on the east side of town....HRRR have PWATS approaching 3" over eastern 3rd of NC....thats pretty silly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Starting to rain in Durham. Something about this feels like waiting for a snowstorm to start... I guess interesting weather has just been so sparse lately.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The low is still way down in GA and the south to north motion will eventually go east to west, this pivot will be over central and eastern NC and those places will not see much if any let up in the rain for the next 12 hrs or so.....I wouldnt be surprised to see the Triangle get 3-4" more even on the east side of town....HRRR have PWATS approaching 3" over eastern 3rd of NC....thats pretty silly.... If I'm reading thre map right, the 13z Hrrrrrrr looks like it has the SE (max precip area) portion of Wake Co. With a storm total of about 3/4". If it just keeps raining like it is now for the next hour and a half, we'll exceed that total. Something doesn't seem right about that output. Could be my eyes, I suppose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowacane Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 16 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Model huggers never learn.... I wanna hug models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 2, 2016 Author Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, RubiksDestroyer said: Starting to rain in Durham. Something about this feels like waiting for a snowstorm to start... I guess interesting weather has just been so sparse lately.... Radar is looking good. I'm getting a few drops up here now. Too bad this isn't a snow storm; we'd be set up pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 just watching the radar between playing with the kiddos, and it seems that there is a pretty decent swath of rain west of rdu and gso that looks to be moving north. maybe we can eek so decent rains out here in danvegas! this would allow my trend of moving north from fl and having decaying systems follow me continue. last one was floyd in central nj... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Radar is looking good. I'm getting a few drops up here now. Too bad this isn't a snow storm; we'd be set up pretty. Nah, all this would be virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: If I'm reading thre map right, the 13z Hrrrrrrr looks like it has the SE (max precip area) portion of Wake Co. With a storm total of about 3/4". If it just keeps raining like it is now for the next hour and a half, we'll exceed that total. Something doesn't seem right about that output. Could be my eyes, I suppose! Yeah, the gradient is going to be fun. Steadily raining here too...should continue into early Saturday morning I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 If we get 8-10" today it will put PGV 5" ahead of the wettest year EVER here.....we are already 11" ahead of normal for the year.....and the last 19 months are the wettest period here ever with last year being within 1" of the all time wettest year, so IF we end up having the wettest year ever this year it will be two year in a row of record rainfall....normal here is 49"....we had 69.09" last year (so +20") and 45" already this year so we will exceed 49" today thus for the second year in a row exceeding our normal yearly rainfall with 3 full months to go....the wettest year ever had 70.23" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just now, downeastnc said: If we get 8-10" today it will put PGV 5" ahead of the wettest year EVER here.....we are already 11" ahead of normal for the year.....and the last 19 months are the wettest period here ever with last year being within 1" of the all time wettest year, so IF we end up having the wettest year ever this year it will be two year in a row of record rainfall....normal here is 49"....we had 69.09" last year (so +20") and 45" already this year so we will exceed 49" today thus for the second year in a row exceeding our normal yearly rainfall with 3 full months to go....the wettest year ever had 70.23" Are you in a flood plain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 We have hit the lofty sum of 1.8 inches with light wind. Looks like the next band will miss the area too. Looks like there's plenty going on in the midlands and eastern NC though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 11 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yeah, the gradient is going to be fun. Steadily raining here too...should continue into early Saturday morning I would think. Lol that has almost already busted here. Maybe not taking into account the tropical nature of the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 8 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: We have hit the lofty sum of 1.8 inches with light wind. Looks like the next band will miss the area too. Looks like there's plenty going on in the midlands and eastern NC though. EPS had you at 2.5-3" QPF. As the SLP tracks just west of you should pick up another 1" or so. 1z HRRR had you 2-3" QPF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 i dont know much but i feel like the models arent/werent taking into account a transitioning system and the rain shield being mostly on the left side as seems to be the norm for these events..seemed to want to keep it purely tropical far too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Lol that has almost already busted here. Maybe not taking into account the tropical nature of the rain? How much have you gotten? Shows you through 9pm tonight with 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: How much have you gotten? Shows you through 9pm tonight with 1". I don't know but it's been raining at an upper-end moderate rate for about 40 minutes or so now (lighter before that). I'd guess about 1/2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: EPS had you at 2.5-3" QPF. As the SLP tracks just west of you should pick up another 1" or so. 1z HRRR had you 2-3" QPF too. True. I guess I was mostly thinking about how for the past day or so all I've been hearing about is people here talk about flooding, and friends commenting about how nearby supermarkets are completely devoid of essentials (beer, bread and milk). I'm more interested in seeing when or if the wind picks up but am not expecting calamity by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: Are you in a flood plain? Naw but my yard will look like a lake, I will post pics later once it gets insane.....I think the bigger concern is going to be street flooding, there are a lot of creeks and streams that if they overflow put several vital heavily traveled roads under water here in Greenville making it a royal b**ch to get around....models are slowly backing off the higher totals but I had 2.5" last night so the yards are ditches already have water in them etc. With the higher Pwats and warm rain processes and smaller drops will fool the radar....it shows greens and yellows over me and its pouring outside here right now....so I am not sure how good of a handle the models have on amounts....track is key though the 20-30 miles just NW of the track will be the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I dumped my rain gauge a couple of hrs ago and the rain really began in earnest 45 mins ago and already I got almost .50" in the gauge...even at this rate I would get 4-6" if it rains for the next 10 hrs or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just finished walking my dogs. We have a steady moderate rain falling with very light winds. Have picked up .56" so far. Waiting for the heavy stuff to come thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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