FallsLake Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Lets measure in buckets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Lets not lol.... to bad its gonna most likely happen...consensus for MBY is 7-10"....that counts the stuff today though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 1, 2016 Author Share Posted September 1, 2016 Current winds ---You can see the swirl around the hurricane and you can tell the progression of the front into NC: http://hint.fm/wind/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Center is only 65 miles offshore now so it will be onshore in a few more hrs, lucky for them since the system is firing a new round of storms.....if it had had 12-18 more hrs over water it would have been a decent cane when it hit they got lucky...still only finding 50-60 mph winds in the north eyewall at the surface..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 nasty couplet north of Tampa in Florida probably producing in a pretty populated area...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 On a side note my county just got placed under a tropical storm warning.....up till now the warning only applied to the coastal counties on the beach and around the sound.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Where is Pack to keep us updated o the RGEM and Navgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Basically everything government-related is shut down in the Charleston area tomorrow. No private companies have announced closures yet. Bridge closures will be the key to whether I'm stuck at home or work tomorrow. I could see either being the case depending on what the wind does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Schools letting out 2 hrs early here tomorrow concerns about flooded roadways.....the rain is a given the hard to figure out part will be the wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 00z NAM shows less than half an inch for Durham. Not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 10 minutes ago, WidreMann said: 00z NAM shows less than half an inch for Durham. Not surprised. Wildre shows up to post something negative. Not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Woke up at 330 to a tornado warning, and the couplet heading straight for the house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3/4" so far. We're in a quiet spot right now with some development happening just to the north. The wind is still what bugs me, there are too many big crappy pine trees around but nothing within striking distance of our place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 9 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Wildre shows up to post something negative. Not surprised. You're not getting a tornado. Disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 9 hours ago, WidreMann said: 00z NAM shows less than half an inch for Durham. Not surprised. The main rain shield stopped one county away here just as a number of 4km nam/hrrr runs showed...talk about typical. I did at least get a little over an inch with the stalled front. Oh...and a a few 15mph gusts...scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: The main rain shield stopped one county away here just as a number of 4km nam/hrrr runs showed...talk about typical. I did at least get a little over an inch with the stalled front. Oh...and a a few 15mph gusts...scary. Just think about those of us who didn't get any rain from the front or Hermine ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowjimmy73 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 823am heavy clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Waycross is just SE of the eye. Winds are gusting to 56mph currently. Lots of people power out and some trees down talking to family and friends that live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 34 minutes ago, Lookout said: The main rain shield stopped one county away here just as a number of 4km nam/hrrr runs showed...talk about typical. I did at least get a little over an inch with the stalled front. Oh...and a a few 15mph gusts...scary. This is like a tropical version of Jan 2000. Everyone one county to the east and south of me saw snowfall. I got nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Ahhhhhh lets hope not... FORECASTS FOR HURRICANE HERMINE CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. WITH A WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH LOW ELEVATION COASTAL PLAINS AND EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS A STRONG TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM LATER IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD...RAINFALL WILL BE VERY HEAVY AND WIDESPREAD. WPC QPF DEPICTS AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES. IF ANYTHING...QPF TENDS TO ERR ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...AND MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 10 OR MORE INCHES. LOOKING AT HISTORICAL TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH SIMILAR SIZE...SPEED...AND TRACK...MANY HAVE PRODUCED LOCAL MAXIMA APPROACHING 15 INCHES...OFTEN TIMES IN THE CAROLINAS. THE RAINFALL HAZARD STATEMENT IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR HERMINE WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. IN CONSIDERING THE UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK...THE ONLY HESITATION IS THAT THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OUTER BANKS REGION IN GA/SC/NC DOES NOT EASILY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING...AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES START OUT AT LARGE VALUES TODAY...WITH RECENT WEATHER HAVING BEEN DRY. PROBABILITIES DERIVED FROM THE SSEO MEAN...HOWEVER...POINT TOWARD A 70 PERCENT OR GREATER CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG WITHIN 40 KM OF A POINT. THE INDIVIDUAL POINT PROBABILITIES WOULD NOT BE SO HIGH AS THAT...BUT THIS COMBINED WITH RIVER FORECAST POINTS NOW BEING PUSHED INTO MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING GIVES US MORE CONFIDENCE IN UPGRADING TO HIGH RISK. THANKS TO THE LOCAL OFFICES FOR COORDINATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Just a small difference in amount totals expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Doubt the winds are all that, right now around the center of the storm places are lucky to gust to 30-40 on the east side, they seem to hold it a true TS till it gets back offshore without it going extratropical, if it can start to transition sooner maybe the higher winds up top will mix down better....if that happens then gust to 40-50 are possible I suppose...especially over the OBX as it moves offshore etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Just a small difference in amount totals expected. When the models were showing the heavy QPF for our area the SLP was tracking NW of MYR, now they are all showing it tracking right over MYR. If it tracks over MYR then we are in the 1-3" range, if it's NW of MYR then we could get to the 4-6" range. The HRRR has been ticking SE over the past few runs, tracking up the SC coast, we may dodge the worst of the heavy rains (3+") if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: When the models were showing the heavy QPF for our area the SLP was tracking NW of MYR, now they are all showing it tracking right over MYR. If it tracks over MYR then we are in the 1-3" range, if it's NW of MYR then we could get to the 4-6" range. The HRRR has been ticking SE over the past few runs, tracking up the SC coast, we may dodge the worst of the heavy rains (3+") if true. Guess we just have to wait and see. You'd think we would learn by now not to trust the models more than 24 hours out when it comes to extreme events, whether it be a winter or tropical storm. Even 24 hours out is a bit much. I would actually like to see the lesser precip totals this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Guess we just have to wait and see. You'd think we would learn by now not to trust the models more than 24 hours out when it comes to extreme events, whether it be a winter or tropical storm. Even 24 hours out is a bit much. I would actually like to see the lesser precip totals this time. I said it a couple of times this week...we (RDU) seem to always dodge these extreme weather solutions, whether it's snow/sleet or tropical rain/wind. Just lucky I guess... 11z HRRR run had 1" QPF in NW Wake and 4" in SE Wake with 6+" 20 miles away. This thing shifts 20-30 miles NW or SE would mean getting possibly nothing to 6"+. 1-3" still looks good, with windy conditions tonight. 12z run shifted SE 10 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I see thee rain shield over jonesville is flexing some muscle. Just rain and windy here at the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: I said it a couple of times this week...we (RDU) seem to always dodge these extreme weather solutions, whether it's snow/sleet or tropical rain/wind. Just lucky I guess... 11z HRRR run had 1" QPF in NW Wake and 4" in SE Wake with 6+" 20 miles away. This thing shifts 20-30 miles NW or SE would mean getting possibly nothing to 6"+. 1-3" still looks good, with windy conditions tonight. Or unlucky when it comes to snow. And the difference between nothing and 6 inches really does sound like our typical winter storms, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Guess we just have to wait and see. You'd think we would learn by now not to trust the models more than 24 hours out when it comes to extreme events, whether it be a winter or tropical storm. Even 24 hours out is a bit much. I would actually like to see the lesser precip totals this time. Looks like you're going to get what you want. The models haven't done terrible with this system, except for that one set of runs that had the system tracking over us. Unfortunately, we are in an area that is frequently affected by small changes in track, and things usually go in the wrong direction within 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Looks like you're going to get what you want. The models haven't done terrible with this system, except for that one set of runs that had the system tracking over us. Unfortunately, we are in an area that is frequently affected by small changes in track, and things usually go in the wrong direction within 24 hours. Not to disappointed in missing out on rain but it is funny to see how we always miss out on extreme weather solutions...still paying for Jan 2k. HRRR has a fairly good handle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Who wants 6" of rain though......I switch with ya guys west of me hehe, 1-3" is perfect wont flood or turn everything into as swamp and will erase any "drought" issues, 6-10" most of it in 10-12 hrs is just blah..... Luckily we should deal with it fine it takes a lot of rain fast to flood roads around here and a few inches a hr is surprisingly manageable for the most part, and usually in tropical systems we have storm surge running up the rivers making them flow backwards and this really hinders drainage of runoff causing storm drains to actually push water out of them versus the other way around making the street flooding even worse...we should have none of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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