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September Obs--Fall is on the way


Avdave

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Another dam was reported to compromised near the Cumberland and Sampson County line Thursday afternoon.  The dam on Rhodes Lake near Godwin has been overtopped.  This could result in flash flooding downstream along the Black River.  The dam is located on US Highway 301 near Baggett Road.  If the dam fails, water could rush across Highway 301 and possibly across I-95.  

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3 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

low temps for this weekend have risen to the mid 60s, ugh.  last week it was showing mid 50s and I was looking forward to some fall temps.  guess we will have to wait another 7+ days.

Yeah, what happened to the coolish/dryish air that was supposed to visit for the weekend?  WRAL is calling for 85 F on Sunday.

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6 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

low temps for this weekend have risen to the mid 60s, ugh.  last week it was showing mid 50s and I was looking forward to some fall temps.  guess we will have to wait another 7+ days.

Yeah this cool down has really modified over the past few days. About 4 days ago, I was forecast to see all 70s for the duration of the outlook with all 50s for lows. Now I'm down to one day in the upper 70s and only 3 mornings in the 50s. More mid 80s coming up :(. While I'm not expecting Shetley's "well into the 90s, well into October," (that's just not going to happen) , it looks like we won't see much fall for the foreseeable future after the next couple days. Summer just won't let go. We've officially wasted the first month of met fall!

 

Despite that, it's nice now. 52 this morning and 64/49 right now. First DP in the 40s in a loooooong time. 

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27 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Yeah this cool down has really modified over the past few days. About 4 days ago, I was forecast to see all 70s for the duration of the outlook with all 50s for lows. Now I'm down to one day in the upper 70s and only 3 mornings in the 50s. More mid 80s coming up :(. While I'm not expecting Shetley's "well into the 90s, well into October," (that's just not going to happen) , it looks like we won't see much fall for the foreseeable future after the next couple days. Summer just won't let go. We've officially wasted the first month of met fall!

 

Despite that, it's nice now. 52 this morning and 64/49 right now. First DP in the 40s in a loooooong time. 

We had lower dewpoints here for a while, but I'm afraid they may be headed back up. I see the dewpoint in Rock Hill jumped up by nearly 20 degrees recently and they are back in mid 60's as far west as Rutherford county NC. You should not have this happen in Easley, but over here in Union county I'm afraid the high humidity and 87-90 degree heat may be coming back much sooner than expected.

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Yeah, what the hell is going on.  Our dewpoints had fallen off to about 50 today, and now they have shot back up into the mid 60s and it's not even midnight yet.

A thunderstorm has actually developed northwest of here.  I have never seen the computer models fail so miserably.  This front was forecast to be through here Tuesday as recently as Sunday, and it hasn't even cleared the coast yet.  

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2 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Dropped down to 51 at the homestead with plenty of 40s nearby.  I'm not sure what the hell is going on in NC but since yesterday morning it's been as perfect as it can be weather wise. 

It's like being in a sauna where the heat has been turned off a while ago.  Not quite hot, but warm and so muggy you almost have to push through the air.  Reminds me of last Christmas.

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

anytime you get strong onshore flow like this its gonna be warm and muggy at night, on the flip side a lot of you guys ou west are getting the rain you have wanted, once Matthew gets out of the way its gonna go fall like hard...

but look at how warm the 0z gfs was. not consistent at all on frost/freeze for western NC.

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1 minute ago, NWNC2015 said:

but look at how warm the 0z gfs was. not consistent at all on frost/freeze for western NC.

I will take my chances with climo, lows in the mid to upper 40's and highs in the low 70's is pretty much the normal for most of NC by mid to late Oct....average first frost for most of us in NC is the last 10 days of Oct at the earliest...

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