Allsnow Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, Metsfan said: 18z hurricane models are off shore Pretty much a non event if that's true. Just enough to give us a crappy weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wtf The ensemble models have been showing this for a while ... haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: They are not ots found this on here http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Pretty much a non event if that's true. Just enough to give us a crappy weekend Remember if Hermine truely goes ET then the hurricane models do not handle that transition very well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Im glad that forecasting a hurricane is more than just going with the most dire model. Ill let the professionals guide me on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Looks like to my eyes(tvcn) blend of the global models rides the benchmark, but it's hard too tell.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I'm not sure how well hurricane models catch things like mid-latitude captures, but the 18z models thus far seem to show a further east track initially, which forces any capture to be SE enough where the coast gets lashed but not annihilated like some 12z models. The rain would be nice but hopefully for the sake of the beaches the SE track wins out. If I had to wager a guess, that's what I'd bet on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Not saying the hurricane models are wrong but they may be having issues dealing with the post-tropical/hybrid nature of the storm and the interaction @ 500mb. Think I saw DT mention this yesterday. Still many solutions possible rn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Remember if Hermine truely goes ET then the hurricane models do not handle that transition very well.... This was something that was mentioned last night in the New England forum by CoastalWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Even though I posted the 18z hurricane models(models do not have sounding information(this is key)) it is still greater than 66-72 hrs out( For mid-Atlantic region to be exact). They may trend westward at 00z(the next sounding ingest). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: They are not ots Sorry I probably should have specified they are out to sea for the mid Atlantic concerns. They obviously all make landfall and and are not OTS for the southeast. I meant for up here its OTS. And it will be pretty ugly with winds and beach erosion on the immediate coast even with the track being OTS But those all show a pretty insignificant event for the major populations in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Sorry I probably should have specified they are out to sea for the mid Atlantic concerns. They obviously all make landfall and and are not OTS for the southeast. I meant for up here its OTS. And it will be pretty ugly with winds and beach erosion on the immediate coast even with the track being OTS But those all show a pretty insignificant event for the major populations in this region. Yes. Because its going into an extra-tropical transition; The wind field expands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 If this was Saturday I would be like its over but still early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: If this was Saturday I would be like its over but still early The stronger Hermine is the more likelihood of an east track. Weaker entity would result in a more westward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Umm yes all of those look OTS to me. I'm not sure what all the hype is either unless it's purely about the beaches. I am worried about my families place in sea isle nj on a barrier island and a 970 hybrid low stalled just offshore will suck for beaches and coastal flooding but anyone more then a few miles inland expecting some exciting storm will probably be letdown when it's 2 days of breezy showery weather. Of course it bears watching in case guidance shifts but what is depicted now is not a big deal other then immediate coastal concerns. Ummmm really no dude . Did you happen to look at what is under all those centers of LP at 12z ? There are 50 to 70 knot gusts along the CNJ shore line The center retrogrades and there's a 24 hour long easterly fetch. So of course we are talking about the shore line . There's beach erosion and high winds in areas where people live. Maybe you don't live on a barrier island or along the shore and that`s fine , but no I mean non of the 12z global models were OTS and that was his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 19 minutes ago, Metsfan said: Yes. Because its going into an extra-tropical transition; The wind field expands. Well yes it's definitely a windy rainy day as depicted on those models he posted but he was posting all these maps that clearly showed an OTS track with nothing close to a landfall and then saying it's not OTS. Maybe he was thinking this was like a winter storm where a track like that would be good for snow. If your actually rooting for exciting weather from a tropical system that's not a good track. And if you live in a barrier island by all means I'm not diminishing this as the flooding could be bad but I was confused because all day I was seeing hype in texts and on Twitter then looked at guidance this afternoon and was like huh? It sucks for beaches but how many here really live within a few miles of the water? For everyone else do you really want to see beaches washed away while it's just a breezy showery day at your house 15 miles inland? I think some are thinking models are showing some driving rain with 50 mph winds and that's not really what I see. Now it's close enough to being that to watch it for a west shift but if the current track 150 miles or more OTS holds its not a significant event for non immediate coastal locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Beaches from Toms River to Rehoboth beach don't need a strike for the water to pile up. The system backs in from the east. There is 28c water just S of AC the fact that 70 knot gusts and and easterly fetch for an extended period of time really erode that re done coast. Clearly this is a bigger deal at the shore than those west, but this should deepen once off OBX and where it occludes is where the most damage is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Anyone else see an ongoing trend here the past couple of days? 12Z models show a big hit... 18z storm starts to trend east... 0z storm stays offshore... 6z storm is coming back west... 12Z back to the big hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 9 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Ummmm really no dude . Did you happen to look at what is under all those centers of LP at 12z ? There are 50 to 70 knot gusts along the CNJ shore line The center retrogrades and there's a 24 hour long easterly fetch. So of course we are talking about the shore line . There's beach erosion and high winds in areas where people live. Maybe you don't live on a barrier island or along the shore and that`s fine , but no I mean non of the 12z global models were OTS and that was his post. Ok this is becoming a dispute over expectations but there were people 20 miles inland expecting heavy rain and wind. Yes right on the coast will be very windy as with EVERY nor'easter. And there will be bad flooding as happens every 5-10 years or so. I grew up in nj. My dad is from wildwood. I am well aware of the climo. But the model consensus for NYC right now is maybe half an inch of rain and 25-30 mph wind. If it shifts west that could be worse but as is it's not a significant event away from the immediate beaches. If your just talking about beaches yes this looks bad but others were seeking to expect bad weather inland too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Anyone else see an ongoing trend here the past couple of days? 12Z models show a big hit... 18z storm starts to trend east... 0z storm stays offshore... 6z storm is coming back west... 12Z back to the big hit! yeah I noticed that too so I guess we should anticipate crappy runs for the 0z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Hermine down to 982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ok this is becoming a dispute over expectations but there were people 20 miles inland expecting heavy rain and wind. Yes right on the coast will be very windy as with EVERY nor'easter. And there will be bad flooding as happens every 5-10 years or so. I grew up in nj. My dad is from wildwood. I am well aware of the climo. But the model consensus for NYC right now is maybe half an inch of rain and 25-30 mph wind. If it shifts west that could be worse but as is it's not a significant event away from the immediate beaches. If your just talking about beaches yes this looks bad but others were seeking to expect bad weather inland too. OK fair enough. My focus was at the shore from Monmouth and Ocean County on S down towards DE. I'm in Brick on Sunday and I don't think that area looks good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hermine down to 982 Any reports on FL winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Any reports on FL winds? Don't have specifics right now - but looks like things are deteriorating. http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF?utm_campaign=ustre.am&utm_source=ustre.am%2F1rAmM&utm_medium=social&utm_content=20160901162053 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Any reports on FL winds? I found an offshore buoy just east of the center with 46 knots sustained wind and a 58 knot gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 HWRF way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 It really looks like this is undergoing RI currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, Rjay said: It really looks like this is undergoing RI currently. Looks beautiful. Perhaps cat 2 before landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks beautiful. Perhaps cat 2 before landfall But that means higher chance of OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 17 minutes ago, Jason WX said: HWRF way west Pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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