psv88 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Trees are fully leafed out, as opposed to their general condition in a Noreaster. Some of the older maples, white pines, Bradford pears, that line the suburb streets, will act like sails on ship. Hopefully the ground can absorb the bulk of the rain, but if it hits too fast, flash flooding potential exists. This storm, if as depicted, has disaster written all of over it. Especially on a holiday weekend. I'm going shopping tonight, before the news really gets out. What hurts in grabbing 5-10 gallons of gas for the generator and a few gallons of Poland Spring. I will probably use them anyway. Models right now are showing about 30mph max wind gusts for your area. But its never a bad idea to stock up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Keep in mind the 12z EURO highest sustained winds were assumed to be 69 mph at landfall in 6 hours . Surface winds are already 75 with time to get stronger . Do not be surprised with the 28c line just S of AC , that once this comes off OBX the models don`t have to play catch up again as it tightens back up . It will not take much for this to come 75 miles N and have the center E of Toms River and not Rohoboth beach . A long easterly fetch will def leave a mark from CNJ on S , but the S shore of LI will take a beating as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Nam is still much slower than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, PB GFI said: Keep in mind the 12z EURO highest sustained winds were assumed to be 69 mph in 6 hours . Surface winds are already 75 with time to get stronger . Do not be surprised with the 28c line just S of AC , that once this comes off OBX the models don`t have to play catch up again as it tightens back up . It will not take much for this to come 75 miles N and have the center E of Toms River and not Rohoboth beach . A long easterly fetch will def leave a mark from CNJ on S , but the S shore of LI will take a beating as well . The easterly fetch creates a long shore current which slices up the south shore beaches like a hot knife through butter. It may be worse than the beach erosion seen further south. If thing spins, stalls, etc, then some south shore beaches may simply be gone, such as Robert Moses Field 5. Beach is already on its last legs, it cannot survive this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 I'm less than 10 feet above sea level and two blocks away from water. I'm so not used to this lol. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 TS watch for NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 tropical storm watch now up for all of the NJ and DE coasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Jason WX said: TS watch for NJ Yup. Tropical Storm Watch DEZ003-004-MDZ024-025-NCZ102-NJZ013-014-020-022-023-024-025-026- 027-VAZ098-099-100-020300- /O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1009.160901T2100Z-000000T0000Z/ 400 PM CDT THU SEP 1 2016 DUCK-NC 36.23N 75.77W SANDY-HOOK-NJ 40.46N 74.00W $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 5 minutes ago, christhesnowman said: NAM and every other recent model trend...I know you guys are bored waiting for winter, but this is a non event Like ? Cause this looks OTS right ? No , wait this one does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 012045 TCDAT4 HURRICANE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 400 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016 Hermine was recently upgraded to a hurricane based on an SFMR-observed surface wind from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on that observation. Satellite images show that the cloud pattern continues to gradually become better organized with more distinct curved bands of showers and thunderstorms, although the system currently lacks concentrated inner-core convection. Hermine has a little more time to strengthen, so the official forecast shows a slight additional increase in intensity before landfall. This is consistent with the latest LGEM guidance. Hermine is forecast to become extratropical at 48 hours when the global models forecast it to become embedded within a frontal zone. Later in the forecast period, vertical shear decreases and the cyclone could be situated over marginally warm waters. Therefore there is the possibility of the system regaining some tropical characteristics in 4-5 days, although this is speculative at this time. Aircraft center fixes indicate that the motion remains 030/12 kt. The flow on the eastern side of a mid-level trough over the southeastern United States should cause Hermine to move north-northeastward to northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the next day so. By 48 hours, the track guidance shows the system slowing down as it begins to interact with a mid-level cutoff vortex over the eastern United States. In 3 days or so, the post-tropical cyclone merges with the cutoff low and a further slowing down of the motion is expected. The official track forecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As landfall nears, it is important to not focus on the exact forecast track. Hermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a large extent of dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains well to the east and southeast of the path of the center. 2. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land. NWS policy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system continues to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked for Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to land. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 28.5N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 30.2N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 32.4N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 03/0600Z 34.5N 78.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/1800Z 36.3N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/1800Z 38.0N 72.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/1800Z 38.5N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1800Z 39.5N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 After a long off period I'm back. Hermine does look interesting. Too me for the east coast it's how strong the high pressure in the Atlantic is. The front is currently weakening over the East. MY thinking that it will ride the weak boundary of the cold front. then get pulled in(phased) by the 500 mb upper level low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Starting to get some solid convection around the core. Perhaps a little late in the game for significant strengthening, but interesting to watch the improving structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Curious if anyone is forecasting a PRE. Set-up seems generally right, not perfect, but what is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The 30 posts responding to the troll saying "dont respond to the troll youre clogging up the thread" are clogging up the damn thread. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 37 minutes ago, christhesnowman said: if if rains in nj/nyc go ahead, but when not one drop falls I expect to still be around Please don't post things like this. We are a weather/meteorological forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: The 30 posts responding to the troll saying "dont respond to the troll youre clogging up the thread" are clogging up the damn thread. Carry on. With all due respect, then why do you fix the the core of the problem and get rid of the trolls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: With all due respect, then why do you fix the the core of the problem and get rid of the trolls? Because until you start paying us, the mods arent here 24/7. I cant fix the problem and delete 2 pages worth of bs while busy with other stuff as well. Now back to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFridman29 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 RPM Model (don't know if its good or bad for tropical) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 49 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 2. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land. NWS policy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system continues to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked for Hermine. After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products for as long as the system remains a significant threat to land. Cool. That is the "Sandy" rule. Policy changed after NHC "wasn't allowed" to issue advisories and NHC products once Sandy transitioned to extra tropical. They had to hand off to the local NWS offices right as the thing was making landfall. First time I can remember seeing the new rule used anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 A lot of posts were deleted anyways back on topic it looks like landfall in like 10 hours? Edit: Probably more like 8 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 GFS is slightly southeast of its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Gfs is slightly east of 12z but still gives coastal areas rain and wind. It also strengthens near the SNJ lattitude and stalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: Like ? Cause this looks OTS right ? No , wait this one does... Umm yes all of those look OTS to me. I'm not sure what all the hype is either unless it's purely about the beaches. I am worried about my families place in sea isle nj on a barrier island and a 970 hybrid low stalled just offshore will suck for beaches and coastal flooding but anyone more then a few miles inland expecting some exciting storm will probably be letdown when it's 2 days of breezy showery weather. Of course it bears watching in case guidance shifts but what is depicted now is not a big deal other then immediate coastal concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 GFS is stronger with the low and has stronger winds at the coast. It's just not as wet now for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 18z hurricane models are off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 A few tweaks will make all the difference. I'm thinking is stays far enough east that we avoid a lot of significant impacts. The beaches will get rattled regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Umm yes all of those look OTS to me. I'm not sure what all the hype is either unless it's purely about the beaches. I am worried about my families place in sea isle nj on a barrier island and a 970 hybrid low stalled just offshore will suck for beaches and coastal flooding but anyone more then a few miles inland expecting some exciting storm will probably be letdown when it's 2 days of breezy showery weather. Of course it bears watching in case guidance shifts but what is depicted now is not a big deal other then immediate coastal concerns. They are not ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, Metsfan said: 18z hurricane models are off shore Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, Metsfan said: 18z hurricane models are off shore Oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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