NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, UnionWX said: 12z GFDL Those are 850mb winds or around 5000ft above sea level though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Even 10M winds are around 30-40ft above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Those are 850mb winds or around 5000ft above sea level though. Yes but some of the models are showing mixing to near 900mb and if you look at the Euro that could bring down some really strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Other than the immediate coastline, it looks to be a low impact event. That being said, i may be at some of the area beaches this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, Rjay said: Yes but to some of the models are showing mixing to near 900mb and if you look at the Euro that could bring down some really strong gusts. Oh I agree, but even 1000mb is around 300ft up. I supposed some of the taller buildings in Manhattan could see gusts close to that high on the steeples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Other than the immediate coastline, it looks to be a low impact event. That being said, i may be at some of the area beaches this weekend. enjoy the blowing sand and off and on showers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Other than the immediate coastline, it looks to be a low impact event. That being said, i may be at some of the area beaches this weekend. Have you looked at any of the guidance? Do you consider gusts to 60MPH well inland to be low impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Have you looked at any of the guidance? Do you consider gusts to 60MPH well inland to be low impact? Yes. All of the weakened trees are gone. The power grid has been upgraded. 30-40 mph winds and gusts to 50, even 60, won't do too much damage. Maybe some scattered power outages, but it won't be anything significant, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Other than the immediate coastline, it looks to be a low impact event. That being said, i may be at some of the area beaches this weekend. It could go a few ways depending on exact track and strength but even on the Island there could be gusts 50+ as currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yes. All of the weakened trees are gone. The power grid has been upgraded. 30-40 mph winds and gusts to 50, even 60, won't do too much damage. Maybe some scattered power outages, but it won't be anything significant, imho. you trolling? gusts to 60 won't do much damage? If you have 40-60 mph gusts with a stalled storm for a day or two, you're going to have issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, Rjay said: It could go a few ways depending on exact track and strength but even on the Island there could be gusts 50+ as currently modeled. I agree, plenty of time. But gusts to 50+ isn't a huge deal. We get that in typical winter noreasters. Once gusts pass 60 we are talking. Just now, NJwx85 said: Well then I guess we should all just go home then and lock this thread up. Didn't say that. Just keeping it in perspective. The area beaches will be devastated and there will be major coastal flooding. For everyone else, its a typical noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yes. All of the weakened trees are gone. The power grid has been upgraded. 30-40 mph winds and gusts to 50, even 60, won't do too much damage. Maybe some scattered power outages, but it won't be anything significant, imho. Your joking right?? winds like that over a long period of time will cause problems plus some rain on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Oh I agree, but even 1000mb is around 300ft up. I supposed some of the taller buildings in Manhattan could see gusts close to that high on the steeples. Remember though with low pressure the 1000mb level will be closer to the surface than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: you trolling? gusts to 60 won't do much damage? If you have 40-60 mph gusts with a stalled storm for a day or two, you're going to have issues. First, no models show 60 mph gusts anywhere but along the immediate coastline. I said the immediate coastline will be hit hard. If a model shows widespread 60 mph gusts, then i agree the event becomes higher impact. Right now I dont think we are looking at the next Sandy, not even close. Just trying to calm some people down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Your joking right?? winds like that over a long period of time will cause problems plus some rain on top of it. Nothing to see here per PSV88, keep it moving. Typical Noreaster Nevermind that it's forecasted to stall right off our coast for almost a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 8 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yes. All of the weakened trees are gone. The power grid has been upgraded. 30-40 mph winds and gusts to 50, even 60, won't do too much damage. Maybe some scattered power outages, but it won't be anything significant, imho. How do you think those trees become weakend and the transmission lines becomes compromised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Your joking right?? winds like that over a long period of time will cause problems plus some rain on top of it. Yea, some power outages. As i said, if we want a real high impact event, winds need to be gusting to at least 60. My local area lost a ton of trees in Sandy, and the remaining trees are very strong. I just dont see 40 mph winds causing a ton of damage. But i really do fear for the beaches. The longshore current will obliterate the south shore beaches, which is why i am not really excited about this event either. I love those beaches, and i have no interest in seeing them damaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, psv88 said: First, no models show 60 mph gusts anywhere but along the immediate coastline. I said the immediate coastline will be hit hard. If a model shows widespread 60 mph gusts, then i agree the event becomes higher impact. Right now I dont think we are looking at the next Sandy, not even close. Just trying to calm some people down a bit. I am sure you will change your tune if the models come in stronger in the next few runs.... Jersey and south shore are in for a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: First, no models show 60 mph gusts anywhere but along the immediate coastline. I said the immediate coastline will be hit hard. If a model shows widespread 60 mph gusts, then i agree the event becomes higher impact. Right now I dont think we are looking at the next Sandy, not even close. Just trying to calm some people down a bit. Actually all of the guidance has those gusts well inland, just not into Long Island. And since we don't know exactly where the curve back to the coast is going to be yet, it's way too soon to start telling people to calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Actually all of the guidance has those gusts well inland, just not into Long Island. And since we don't know exactly where the curve back to the coast is going to be yet, it's way too soon to start telling people to calm down. Agreed... especially if it trends faster...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Just now, allgame830 said: I am sure you will change your tune if the models come in stronger in the next few runs.... Jersey and south shore are in for a disaster I will. Right now the models keep the strongest winds just off the NJ coastline. Also, to get the highest impact, we need this thing to go extra-tropical. The system going tropical again won't be good for those seeking high impact. The winds will contract around the center. If the models start showing winds gusting to 60 away from the beaches, i will get concerned for inland locations. To be clear, i am extremely concerned about the beaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, psv88 said: I will. Right now the models keep the strongest winds just off the NJ coastline. Also, to get the highest impact, we need this thing to go extra-tropical. The system going tropical again won't be good for those seeking high impact. The winds will contract around the center. If the models start showing winds gusting to 60 away from the beaches, i will get concerned for inland locations. To be clear, i am extremely concerned about the beaches. Granted these are in kilometers, not MPH, but it's still very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherquiz Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It seems to be moving a bit faster than forecast, how would that affect the track down the line? expect it to continue to be progged faster than it is now especially if it drops the pure tropical title... the globals have a tendency to keep extratropical coastals too slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 The 18z NAM sped up quite dramatically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Granted these are in kilometers, not MPH, but it's still very impressive. Verbatim that shows 60/65mph wind gusts along the jersey shore and the barrier islands along the south shore of LI. For most of LI gusts in the 50 range, and the rest of the Metro area much less. Will be fun heading down to the beach this weekend. Might just hit up the LI Sound beaches, no interest in driving over those bridges to the south shore beaches in 60 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, weatherquiz said: expect it to continue to be progged faster than it is now especially if it drops the pure tropical title... the globals have a tendency to keep extratropical coastals too slow. If it does keep trending faster and faster then we are in some serious problems!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Trees are fully leafed out, as opposed to their general condition in a Noreaster. Some of the older maples, white pines, Bradford pears, that line the suburb streets, will act like sails on ship. Hopefully the ground can absorb the bulk of the rain, but if it hits too fast, flash flooding potential exists. This storm, if as depicted, has disaster written all of over it. Especially on a holiday weekend. I'm going shopping tonight, before the news really gets out. What hurts in grabbing 5-10 gallons of gas for the generator and a few gallons of Poland Spring. I will probably use them anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 18z NAM sped up quite dramatically stop using the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: stop using the NAM! LOL I know Looking at the NAM is a sickness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 the nam has the 1024 high east of LI while other models are weaker and further NE with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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