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Potential Hermine Impacts

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
That should be changed immediately.  same thing occurred with Sandy.


There's a very good reason for this. Those in the NHC are experts on tropical systems and those in local weather offices are usually not. The other issue becomes continuity. If you have the NHC issuing one warning or advisory and the local office issuing something completely different, it causes mass confusion among the public.

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wthrmn654

wthrmn654

Posted
Posted

So as to not cause confusion,and to have a plan for any Storm possible, they stick to what ever they have agreed on in the of season, best example was Sandy. They all changed there policies because Sandy and the warnings being cancelled confused and mislead so many people.

 

Best to have one agency call the shots instead of it flip flopping.  If nhc is given the reigns,they have it till they deem the need is no longer or the storms gone. If Nws gets it they call the shots..

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:


There's a very good reason for this. Those in the NHC are experts on tropical systems and those in local weather offices are usually not. The other issue becomes continuity. If you have the NHC issuing one warning or advisory and the local office issuing something completely different, it causes mass confusion among the public.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

 

The NHC is severely loyal to their hurricane models though.  This is a big part of the problem once a system goes post-tropical or hybrid.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

Tropical storm warnings for NYC are not necessary. I'm not sure why i am still under a TS warning myself, as my point and click only calls for winds today at 17-20, with gusts to 30. The winds have died back down again, 10 or so, with gusts to 17/18. Must have been some sorta boundary which blew through here before.

We will not even meet wind advisory threshold today. At this point, we need coast flood advisories and high surf advisories. Those two should cover what is left of this complete disaster of a storm.

We often get stronger winds from the seabreeze and Ambrose Jet out here, which can gust to 35 on a hot summer day.

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
 

The NHC is severely loyal to their hurricane models though.  This is a big part of the problem once a system goes post-tropical or hybrid.


Honestly the problem is two fold. First : our models are atrocious. Second : too many professional Mets hug computer models over making forecasts with models in mind and then using diagnostic tools to see what is currently happening.

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:


Honestly the problem is two fold. First : our models are atrocious. Second : too many professional Mets hug computer models over making forecasts with models in mind and then using diagnostic tools to see what is currently happening.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

 

I agree that all models have been atrocious with this system, and their (NHC) probably just waiting to be absolutely certain this go around,  before putting up the warnings again.  I understand that aspect, the last thing they want to do is put them up again, only to take them down again tomorrow morning if the models flip flop again.  That would look comical.

But I strongly believe this is going to get very close to the coast.  Within 50 miles. 

The problem now is, we have to wait around for them to inch the track back little by little, till it's at the right track...which could be tomorrow morning for all we know.  (NWS's must be pulling their hair out)

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bacon Strips said:

 

I agree that all models have been atrocious with this system, and their (NHC) probably just waiting to be absolutely certain this go around,  before putting up the warnings again.  I understand that aspect, the last thing they want to do is put them up again, only to take them down again tomorrow morning if the models flip flop again.

But I strongly believe this is going to get very close to the coast.  Within 50 miles. 

The problem now is, we have to wait around for them to inch the track back little by little, till it's at the right track...which could be tomorrow morning for all we know.  (NWS's must be pulling their hair out)

Maybe if this was a strong hurricane they would be. But we have a weakening TS, which even if it tracked right into the Jersey shore would bring wind gusts to 35/40 to NYC. This is akin to a normal Noreaster, or a strong FROPA. "Worst case scenario" for this system is now a weak Noreaster affecting the area. There is no hair being pulled out.

Even out on Nantucket, top winds are forecast to be around 55 mph. Yes, these are TS winds, but certainly nothing serious by any measure. This storm is a dud, a non-event, even out here in Suffolk.

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Pamela

Pamela

Posted
Posted

May take a while for rainfall to work in over the Suffolk County; quite a bit of dry air with a stiff north to northeasterly flow coming down off of the Eastern New England Upland.  We usually think of adiabatic compressional warming via a NW wind off the Catskills & Poconos...this results in rapid drying and improvement in conditions when a northeastbound winter storm reaches NYC's latitude and the winds back around to NW...thus ending the rain or snow.  But the topography of New England also occasionally factors in; northerly winds off the aforementioned E. NE upland can produce a not dissimilar outcome.

Dewpoint at Westhampton Beach was in the upper 40's...and humidities were in the 50% range.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Maybe if this was a strong hurricane they would be. But we have a weakening TS, which even if it tracked right into the Jersey shore would bring wind gusts to 35/40 to NYC. This is akin to a normal Noreaster, or a strong FROPA. "Worst case scenario" for this system is now a weak Noreaster affecting the area. There is no hair being pulled out.

Even out on Nantucket, top winds are forecast to be around 55 mph. Yes, these are TS winds, but certainly nothing serious by any measure. This storm is a dud, a non-event, even out here in Suffolk.

The most impressive part of  Hermine wasn't the winds or tides but the rainfall.  

...Pinellas County...             
Lake Tarpon Canal            22.36 in  0945 PM 09/01   GOES
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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The most impressive part of this storm wasn't the winds or tides but the rainfall. 


...Pinellas County...             
Lake Tarpon Canal            22.36 in  0945 PM 09/01   GOES

Which nobody cares about. What a bust by all models. The Euro had her sailing out to sea, and now has her coming back west. These weather models were useless for this event.

I am glad i didn't hype this up. My friends always ask me for a forecast in these scenarios, and back on Friday i said at most gusts to 45. Turns out that will bust high by quite a bit.

 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

 

21 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

That should be changed immediately.  same thing occurred with Sandy.

What, exactly, do you think happened with Sandy?  You're implying the local offices should have control.  Unfortunately, they did for Sandy, as hurricane watches/warnings were never posted for anywhere north of NC, since the NHC forecast called for Sandy to make a NJ landfall as an extra-tropical system, thus passing responsibilities on to the local offices, who completely effed things up, especially with the storm surge, which they underpredicted badly and communicated just as badly.  If you've never read it, please read Bryan Norcross's blog, post-Sandy (yes he's TWC hurricane expert and a good one at that), which was part of the reason they changed the rules for post-tropical systems to allow the much more expert NHC to continue to issue packages for as long as a post-tropical system is a threat to land.  A great move, which has played out well for Hermine, despite the models being poor with this system - at least we've had a consistent voice, even if a bit overly conservative.  The excerpt, below, says it all.  

"Unfortunately, when Mt. Holly upgraded to a Warning for the Jersey Shore at 5:08 PM, they quit forecasting storm surge numbers altogether and switched exclusively to the height above MLLW. And, they did NOT adopt the higher NHC forecast! Mt. Holly forecast 9.0 to 9.5 feet above MLLW for Monday morning at Sandy Hook, NJ (which is LOWER than Irene’s peak) and 8.0 feet for Monday evening (much lower than Irene). Strange but true. The final height above MLLW during the worst of Sandy that Monday evening was at least 13.5 feet. 

So Mt. Holly had a terrible forecast AND a bad communications policy AND ignored the superior numbers issued by the National Hurricane Center. A triple-colossal systemic failure."
 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/unraveling-the-sandy-stormsurge-forecast

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Eduardo

Eduardo

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Maybe if this was a strong hurricane they would be. But we have a weakening TS, which even if it tracked right into the Jersey shore would bring wind gusts to 35/40 to NYC. This is akin to a normal Noreaster, or a strong FROPA. "Worst case scenario" for this system is now a weak Noreaster affecting the area. There is no hair being pulled out.

Even out on Nantucket, top winds are forecast to be around 55 mph. Yes, these are TS winds, but certainly nothing serious by any measure. This storm is a dud, a non-event, even out here in Suffolk.

This. Even if this tracks further west, it will mean little OTG in terms of sensible weather. Retrograding, filling low pressure areas aren't all that uncommon. Here on the south shore of LI, it just has the feel of a cool, breezy, autumn-like day. Fun to watch on satellite, but I think we are going to be okay ;-)

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e46and2

e46and2

Posted
Posted

the trajectory of approach also changed the wind direction, so even if a formidable hermine approaches the area, it will be more like a nor'easter pushing water away from the shore.  That could still be problematic for some bay flooding and especially the jersey shore, maybe western long island sound as well.  I do remember dying depressions sometimes surprising us here with nasty weather.  Had a concert at jones beach cancelled about 10 years ago ( 9/2/06) due to a dying tropical storm ernesto that created conditions much worse than anticipated.  If this were reversed, and hermine was always progged to have zero impact, I think we would all be pretty intrigued right now.  Sometimes it is all about perspective and hype.  I see a pretty nasty day tomorrow even in a weakened state if it makes a close approach as several models suggest.

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted

2 pm advisory. Winds still at 70knots, moving NW at 6. 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 051739
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
200 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016

...HERMINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 69.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
Harbor
* New Haven to Sagamore Beach
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Hermine was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 69.2 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph
(9 km/h), and a turn toward the north with decreasing forward speed
is expected over the next day or two.  On the forecast track, the
center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the New England
coast through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Hermine should remain near hurricane strength today.  A
gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.  Nantucket Island recently reported a sustained
wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over
portions of the warning area later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  Along the immediate
coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous
waves.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson
Harbor...1 to 2 feet

RAINFALL:  Hermine will produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2
inches across eastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the
offshore islands, through Wednesday.

SURF:  Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east
coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England.  These waves
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions, and significant beach erosion.  Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, psv88 said:

2 pm advisory. Winds still at 70knots, moving NW at 6. 


000
WTNT34 KNHC 051739
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
200 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016

...HERMINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 69.2W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

70 mph, not 70 knots, which would be 80 mph - pretty big difference.  

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e46and2

e46and2

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

70 mph, not 70 knots, which would be 80 mph - pretty big difference.  

do you lie in wait to correct people?  just enjoy the storm; or non-storm, depending on your perspective.  a 70 mph cyclone is still very impressive, especially when you consider the number of 35-50 mph style nor'easters we eagerly track in the fall.

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