allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z NAM gets TS force gusts into NYC. Sustained 20-30MPH. Of course it does lol... Why not? Lol.... In all seriousness this will be nothing like we thought on Friday, but some minor impacts is not out of the question for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 If you believe the NAM/HRRR the rain kind of hits a brick wall near Western LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: If you believe the NAM/HRRR the rain kind of hits a brick wall near Western LI. And with the Center just south of central LI at 33hr... Not sure how strong it is at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Hermine has upwelled a ton of cooler water across the Eastern Seaboard. Some places 2-3°C (6-10°F) cooler! https://t.co/Oz0VddOsJB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 2 hours ago, Pamela said: Those are some extremely intense squalls on the NW side of Hermine; rotating west-southwestward roughly 75 miles SE of the mainland. They would be pretty disruptive should they work their way onshore later in the day... not only that, these bands are extremely way ahead of schedule. NAM is significantly further west again, and even it's 6 hour forecast has the precip nowhere near the area yet. Quote but some minor impacts is not out of the question for NYC It'll be significantly more than minor impacts. you need to look at the whole picture. as discussed last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: Hermine has upwelled a ton of cooler water across the Eastern Seaboard. Some places 2-3°C (6-10°F) cooler! https://t.co/Oz0VddOsJB But, wait -- 2-3 degrees Celsius is 3.6-5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. Bad conversions going on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: If you believe the NAM/HRRR the rain kind of hits a brick wall near Western LI. Imho its underdone, the atm is increasingly moisturizing. the Weather Channel an hour ago had Western Suffolk under partly sunny skies... um currently cloudy with gusts to 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 11 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: not only that, these bands are extremely way ahead of schedule. NAM is significantly further west again, and even it's 6 hour forecast has the precip nowhere near the area yet. It'll be significantly more than minor impacts. you need to look at the whole picture. as discussed last night. Through 48 hours most of the 12z NAM's rain falls over the waters east of NJ & south of LI. That is one strange model; I think there is great regret in meteorological circles that they chose it to supplant the ETA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, dizzy9479 said: But, wait -- 2-3 degrees Celsius is 3.6-5.4 degrees Fahrenheit. Bad conversions going on! Yeah I was just going to say... Is it 2-3C or 6-10F cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: So much wishcasting... No wish casting going on just observing current obvsersations and trends... winds were calm this morning and gusts up to 10MPH... Woohoo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Pamela said: Through 48 hours most of the 12z NAM's rain falls over the waters east of NJ & south of LI. That is one strange model; I think there is great regret in meteorological circles that they chose it to supplant the ETA... The NAM yields such unusual solutions that I recall once commenting that if a snowstorm ran from 9z to 15z; the 12z run would be hard pressed to reflect the event that was in the midst of transpiring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Pamela said: The NAM yields such unusual solutions that I recall once commenting that if a snowstorm ran from 9z to 15z; the 12z run would be hard pressed to reflect the event that was in the midst of transpiring... i'm only paying attention to it's track at this point. (along with GFS and Euro) It's QPF fields have been different with each run. It's nowhere near having a clue what's currently going on wind and rain wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Moving NW at 6MPH... Based on NHC wind speed progs TS winds right on the eastern tip of LI and also chances of TS winds for NYC have increased... All according to the 11am update... not it over yet guys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: i'm only paying attention to it's track at this point. (along with GFS and Euro) It's QPF fields have been different with each run. It's nowhere near having a clue what's currently going on wind and rain wise. Mr. Strips I wouldn't imho pay attention to any models. Nowcast my friend. Look at obs and satellite along with wv imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Rgem leading the charge and rest of the model suite is catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 It looks like 2 centers pinwheeling in the last couple of frames. here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Rgem leading the charge and rest of the model suite is catching up. RGEM has been the most consistent model...as it always is. No better model inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Pamela said: RGEM has been the most consistent model...as it always is. Nothing better inside 24 hours. What did it show this morning? Also nice to see a change straight to the NW and not NNW much better chance of seeing some effects... What a whacky storm!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, Pamela said: RGEM has been the most consistent model...as it always is. No better model inside 24 hours. It was pretty awful this summer with convection. Consistently way too slow with timing of fronts too. I've noticed convection has never been its strong point though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: It was pretty awful this summer with convection. Consistently way too slow with timing of fronts too. I've noticed convection has never been its strong point though I am speaking generally...and I will concede I have not followed the weather over the summer as there was little worth following. But we know from winters past that the Canadien is excellent in many ways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What did it show this morning? Also nice to see a change straight to the NW and not NNW much better chance of seeing some effects... What a whacky storm!! So far it's coming in drier than 6z due to more HP over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: So far it's coming in drier than 6z due to more HP over New England. Well I was referring to Low Placement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 On 9/3/2016 at 1:43 PM, Pamela said: The Canadien is wet...the NAM is very close...and your global (GFS) is really only 50 miles SE from being a huge rainmaker...these models are no good with tropical systems...so you have to expect larger potential margins for error than with a mid latitude cyclone... The above dispatch I sent on Saturday likewise applies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well I was referring to Low Placement... More suppressed or further south that the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 23 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What did it show this morning? Also nice to see a change straight to the NW and not NNW much better chance of seeing some effects... What a whacky storm!! It looks fine: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 hour ago, Metsfan said: Imho its underdone, the atm is increasingly moisturizing. the Weather Channel an hour ago had Western Suffolk under partly sunny skies... um currently cloudy with gusts to 30 mph. Clouding up all the way through NJ now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Light rain is approaching Montauk, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 28 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What did it show this morning? Also nice to see a change straight to the NW and not NNW much better chance of seeing some effects... What a whacky storm!! The placement of the 6z Canadien precip shield is practically identical to the 12z; however 12z is drier out over LI...or so it appears from a cursory glance. There is a bit of a model consensus emerging (about time!)...as the NAM & Canadien are not too dissimilar...as the idea of some backbuilding appears to be gaining traction. Nevertheless; the majority of the really heavy tropical downpours are out over the Atlantic shipping lanes; though this might still shift a bit in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 wonder if any heated discussions between NHC and NWS are going on at the moment. Like with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Shorter term 12z RGEM drier and further south than 6z 12z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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