ag3 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Euro caves to the Rgem. Shifted hundreds of miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, ag3 said: Euro caves to the Rgem. Shifted hundreds of miles west. What do you think? Close miss or are these trends legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine should bring at least gusts to Gale/Tropical Storm Force over all waters but New York Harbor from later today into Tonight and possibly into Tuesday, so will continue with existing headlines as is. For now it appears that winds will fall below Gale/Tropical Storm Force on all waters by Tuesday evening, with SCA conditions likely for Tuesday night. With an more westward track to Hermine there is still the potential for tropical storm force winds on Wed on portions of the coastal waters. This will depend on how far west she retrogrades before tracking NE out to sea Wed night. As such no changes to current headlines. Hermine will also be weakening with time...therefore seas will also be diminishing. Currently expect wind gusts and seas to fall below sca levels from west to east late wed and wed night...although this may take slightly longer if Hermine retrogrades further west than forecast and is a bit stronger than model guidance is indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 WTF.. So now is making a comeback! I hate this storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Think he means coming back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 42 minutes ago, nycsnow said: What do you think? Close miss or are these trends legit We should get some rain bands and winds to 40mph. Storm has trended back west but has also trended weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 A top ten surf day on Lincoln BLVD in Long Beach. http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/lincoln-blvd-fixed-long-island_5133/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 watching the radar is absolutely painful. reminds me of the blizzard( for sne) that wasn't that slammed Philly a few years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 On 9/3/2016 at 1:35 PM, Pamela said: I have to disagree with you there; with that much tropical moisture places like NYC and Long Island are looking at an extended soaking rain and probably a good deal of urban flooding as well. Those are some extremely intense squalls on the NW side of Hermine; rotating west-southwestward roughly 75 miles SE of the mainland. They would be pretty disruptive should they work their way onshore later in the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Cloudy and breezy. Radar and satellite look good but the models are still a complete mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 The 11z HRRR brings quite a few bands into LI later today. Per 8AM NHC advisory TS force winds extend out 230 miles from the center. She's a large storm, and you don't need the center that far West to feel her wrath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The 11z HRRR brings quite a few bands into LI later today. Per 8AM NHC advisory TS force winds extend out 230 miles from the center. She's a large storm, and you don't need the center that far West to feel her wrath. Think they make it to NYC coastal areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: Think they make it to NYC coastal areas? Well I guess it's a possible, but Hermine would need to be moving NNW or NW for that to happen, at this she is crawling N at 3MPH. But a shift to the west is supposed to happen during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Well I guess it's a possible, but Hermine would need to be moving NNW or NW for that to happen, at this she is crawling N at 3MPH. But a shift to the west is supposed to happen during the day. JB back on board saying coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Winds gusting to 29 at Islip past hour. Not as windy here yet, probably only close to 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 18 minutes ago, nycsnow said: JB back on board saying coming west So what..what does that even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Just now, Stormlover74 said: So what..what does that even mean? Just saying how people are going back and forth. Guess only time will tell with what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 the convection is starting to flare up on the southwest side of the storm now,it seems also like a faint semblance of a reforming coc and the wrapping around of moisture,curious to see if it's southeastern quadrant flares up as well later on. it's still in decently warm waters by the way and the venting is visible with a nice outflow starting to take shape with less sheer now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: the convection is starting to flare up on the southwest side of the storm now,it seems also like a faint semblance of a reforming coc and the wrapping around of moisture,curious to see if it's southeastern quadrant flares up as well later on. it's still in decently warm waters by the way and the venting is visible with a nice outflow starting to take shape with less sheer now.. I notice that too. Lets see what happens. Hermine is sure a head scratchier. He's West, East, North, South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Based upon how it seems to now be headed west, approximately when do you think it would hit if it does hit? Also, you think it'll affect Rockland county?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: Based upon how it seems to now be headed west, approximately when do you think it would hit if it does hit? Also, you think it'll affect Rockland county? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I wouldn't be worried for you. Rockland County is pretty far north. Only coastal sections will see semi-major impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Be interesting to see how this will ultimately affect coastal flooding/surge.. If he doesn't weaken/ or somehow strengthens. In any case,I'd think surge forecast will be going back up should be stay strong and beads west a good chunk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 10 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: the convection is starting to flare up on the southwest side of the storm now,it seems also like a faint semblance of a reforming coc and the wrapping around of moisture,curious to see if it's southeastern quadrant flares up as well later on. it's still in decently warm waters by the way and the venting is visible with a nice outflow starting to take shape with less sheer now.. Just when I thought this storm was dead and buried. I no longer trust any model at this point... I'm tracking Hermine old school from here on out. Satellite and radar observations are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Pressure down to 30.14 and winds are already increasing with gusts to nearly 30. I might add east/north east winds direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Just when I thought this storm was dead and buried. I no longer trust any model at this point... I'm tracking Hermine old school from here on out. Satellite and radar observations are the way to go. I was nowcasting since yesterday. No sense in model chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 50 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Just when I thought this storm was dead and buried. I no longer trust any model at this point... I'm tracking Hermine old school from here on out. Satellite and radar observations are the way to go. mother nature never seizes to amaze me,although the writing was on the wall for hermine since the get, he's a tough s.o.b!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 hermine a she not a he :P On 9/3/2016 at 11:55 AM, SACRUS said: well it does take time for the atmosphere to moisten.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 54 minutes ago, Metsfan said: I was nowcasting since yesterday. No sense in model chasing. same here bud,i stayed in the western solution camp. as of right now it's getting interesting every hour,lets see how far back west this goes. also a minor bust,it's cloudy,very breezy and chilly..has the feel of a approaching noreaster as compared to a forecast of a mostly sunny and warm day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 12z NAM gets TS force gusts into NYC. Sustained 20-30MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Outer rain bands have overspread Cape Cod and are now about 10 to 15 miles east of Block Island, Rhode Island...with a slow westward drift observed to the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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