NJHurricane Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What does the wind field look like as it approaches LI and moves SW? It's still decent as it approaches...max winds both decline rapidly and the field shrinks just as its getting there...if this happened verbatim I'd guess a few hours of solid TS winds on the eastern tip but falling off pretty quick after that...this sure would give forecasters more fits if it came to pass lol...I'd post some images but I haven't been active here in a while and don't know the active policy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, NJHurricane said: It's still decent as it approaches...max winds both decline rapidly and the field shrinks just as its getting there...if this happened verbatim I'd guess a few hours of solid TS winds on the eastern tip but falling off pretty quick after that...this sure would give forecasters more fits if it came to pass lol...I'd post some images but I haven't been active here in a while and don't know the active policy That is a point well taken. Even sitting out over 75+ F water and w/o any genuine obstructions to its circulation; EVERY cyclone eventually undergoes what is meteorologically deemed "filling"...denoting a rise in barometric pressure at its center. The dynamism that fueled the hurricane diminishes; the lifting process eventually slackens; and things simply and naturally fall apart over the mere passage of time. Hurricanes are actually fairly delicate entities; that is why they are not rocketing around the oceans of the earth 24 / 7. The factors I mentioned above do not even account for moving into an unfavorable wind field; which is invariably the main source of a hurricane's premature demise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Pamela said: That is a point well taken. Even sitting out over 75+ F water and w/o any genuine obstructions to its circulation; EVERY cyclone eventually undergoes what is meteorologically deemed "filling"...denoting a rise in barometric pressure at its center. The lifting process eventually slackens; and things simply and naturally fall apart over the mere passage of time. Seems like it happens rapidly, check it out on the NCEP page...it's probably fiction in the end being the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 TS warnings finally dropped for all except Suffolk cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 I know most are pretty disappointed and I get it, but love days like these. Beautiful late summer weather with huge surf hitting the beaches. eailer I mentioned that this storm reminded me of Felix 95, but the swell and the rip were a lot more like Eduard 96. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Edouard_(1996)#/media/File%3AEdouard_1996_track.png. The rip from east to west on the beach was like 6-7mph. Which doesn't sound like a lot but if you watched someone paddle out into the surf you basically had to jog along the beach to keep up with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 GFS coming west too...tracking towards LI or a bit south...but also filling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 GFS coming west too...tracking towards LI or a bit south...but also filling in I think most people have given up on Hermine. The NWS has.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, mophstymeo01 said: I think most people have given up on Hermine. The NWS has. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk As a high impact event no doubt...but what a goofy end to a goofy system if it finally makes this epic hook as a dissipating coulda been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: could you relax with the trolling, you're not paying attention to current trends. you make it sound like you're just looking up at the sky and making your forecast. You can't be serious. I posted clear hard facts about Hermine's position and the near impossibility of it ever being a major impact on our area and wondering why the NHC hadn't dropped the TS Warnings yet - a few hours after which they finally did, for all but eastern LI and SE New England, as I predicted - and I'm the troll? Yeah. Between you and NJwx85 and a few others, this subforum has almost become unreadable. Maybe stop hugging the outlier model runs that match your meteorological fantasies and use some common sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 ^we'll see if you're right, hows that? I feel they'll need to be re-added. But time will tell. any update with that cruise ship? didn't look like 20 foot seas like he was saying. check out these winds guys. just off the coast . 850mb level. current obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 the show is back on guys. did everybody fall asleep? or are just going insane from all the back and forths.. ? anyway, buoy 44066. which is about 50 miles off the jersey coast : 16 foot seas every 12 seconds ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 the hell is this?My guess, the CMC trying to obliterate the east coast again.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 23 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: ^we'll see if you're right, hows that? I feel they'll need to be re-added. But time will tell. any update with that cruise ship? didn't look like 20 foot seas like he was saying. check out these winds guys. just off the coast . 850mb level. current obs. The NHC adjusted their track further eastward with their 11 pm package and dropped almost all of the TS warnings, probably 12 hours too late. Are you telling me you know more than they do, because you've looked at the crappy NAM? It's over. Accept it and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 6 minutes ago, Pamela said: Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? thank you. and yup I saw it. Quote The NHC adjusted their track further eastward with their 11 pm package and dropped almost all of the TS warnings, probably 12 hours too late. Are you telling me you know more than they do, because you've looked at the crappy NAM? It's over. Accept it and move on. Just keeping up with the latest trends , obs, and models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 And the Euro shows what exactly?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Euro looks like the rgem and ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Hermine in a nutshell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Mmmmkay? Keep in mind, these solutions which spin Hermine back way west spend up most of its energy and it arrives back with breezy conditions and some showers. It won't come back as a 70-75 mph storm. Eventually it'll stack and/or upwell cold water and be done anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Mmmmkay? Keep in mind, these solutions which spin Hermine back way west spend up most of its energy and it arrives back with breezy conditions and some showers. It won't come back as a 70-75 mph storm. Eventually it'll stack and/or upwell cold water and be done anyway. Getting interesting again. Euro is way west and this depiction would still bring some rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 56 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Mmmmkay? Keep in mind, these solutions which spin Hermine back way west spend up most of its energy and it arrives back with breezy conditions and some showers. It won't come back as a 70-75 mph storm. Eventually it'll stack and/or upwell cold water and be done anyway. Verbatim that's what all these new west solutions show...what would be interesting is if it reacquires more tropical characteristics/or deepens more than shown while following such a track...hanging onto that robust wind field another 12-18 hours would be a big difference for many on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 I am curious to see what the 00z Euro ensembles will show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 well one thing is for certain,this storm is no baby anymore. one might have to ask how long till alerts go back out,less then 24 hours and all i'm hearing is meh. also of note this time yesterday everyone (except a few including myself) stayed in the eastern conus solution,clearly it's coming west and pretty strong at that..hermine has a mind of it's own at this point!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=he it's def gathering moisture now thats for sure,seems to be stalling or just crawling now.eventually the southern atlantic ridge will push it back west a bit as it's building westward also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 6z g.f.s north and west again..n.y.c,l.i and coastal new england get slammed by strong winds and bands of rain,not gd. currently hermine is undergoing a transition back to tropical as it's sitting steady right over the gulf stream.the convective explosion is pretty evident by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 There's a dense shield of mid-level clouds at Jones Beach this morning. Not too far away it's mainly clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: There's a dense shield of mid-level clouds at Jones Beach this morning. Not too far away it's mainly clear. it's a coming my friend,the visible satellite later this morning is going to look incredible if it keeps strengthening at this pace. just crazy really.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 They drop TS warnings, it's forecasted to be a close miss. Models argue otherwise let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Lets not get to crazy with this today, honestly you can't put much stock in anything at this point. Lets see how the days progresses with the models and nowcasting and see how things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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