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Potential Hermine Impacts


Zelocita Weather

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5 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said:

Seems like its starting its more northward movement now as the cloud deck is also moving northwest also,the tugging begins.some convection is also trying to rap around the coc so im still not convinced of east and out solution just yet.

You are right but how far WEST will it be able to come.

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3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

current 500mb analysis

 

500mb.gif

Very interesting,that 500 mb vortex is going to pull this thing right back to the coast at a more northern latitude ,depending on how far west it can get n.y.c and coastal new england could get it gd. Also It's really starting to blossom a.t.m on current water vapor loops..

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It's been over since this morning and it's still over, from the perspective of major rain and wind impacts.  The storm is 325 miles SE of Montauk and 375 miles east of OC MD - even with 100+ miles of NW motion it'll still be 250+ miles from NJ and 150 miles from Eastern LI and starting to weaken.  Surprised they haven't dropped the TS warnings everywhere, except maybe eastern LI and SE New England.  And even the coastal flooding and beach erosion impacts are now forecast to be significantly less for everyone, especially in DE/NJ (and they were never forecast to be anywhere near what Sandy was), as the storm is just too far east and will not retrograde close enough to be an issue.  I completely understand being cautious through late Saturday, since the probability of major impacts across a large area was reasonably high and there wouldn't have been much time to respond if things got even worse than expected, but the NHC/NWS ought to back off now, IMO.  

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

silly....this thing is still moving east and is at 68 degrees longitude...the amount of time it would have to spend moving west to affect anyone would be measured in days.....and that's if it stopped moving east right now...

Maybe Hermine will be around for the remainder of the Hurricane season!

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3 minutes ago, mophstymeo01 said:

 


I was about to post the same thing. The NAM is obsessed with this idea of swinging Hermine back in our direction.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

The hi res NAM shows something similar..:and if you look at both the sim radar of the NAM and the 10m wind product of the hi res you see a system that is deteriorating as it approaches...wonder if it's a capture of some of the remnant mid level circ of Hermine captured and brought west with a little initial juice up from the gulf stream that dies out as it moves off that fuel...and also other levels of asymetric Hermine still pulling off to the east denying that piece of what might otherwise be a more potent regenerating hybrid

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1 minute ago, NJHurricane said:

The hi res NAM shows something similar..:and if you look at both the sim radar of the NAM and the 10m wind product of the hi res you see a system that is deteriorating as it approaches...wonder if it's a capture of some of the remnant mid level circ of Hermine captured and brought west with a little initial juice up from the gulf stream that dies out as it moves off that fuel...and also other levels of asymetric Hermine still pulling off to the east denying that piece of what might otherwise be a more potent regenerating hybrid

Then it moves SW towards Southern NJ... So strange....

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2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Then it moves SW towards Southern NJ... So strange....

All the while losing steam...appears on wxbell sim radar impressive as it approaches eastern LI then jogs SW as it rapidly weakens

for those rooting for some last minute excitement the NAM's are like winning the last game of the season at the same time you are finding out you are eliminated from the playoffs anyway

 

 

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5 minutes ago, NJHurricane said:

All the while losing steam...appears on wxbell sim radar impressive as it approaches eastern LI then jogs SW as it rapidly weakens

for those rooting for some last minute excitement the NAM's are like winning the last game of the season at the same time you are finding out you are eliminated from the playoffs anyway

 

 

What does the wind field look like as it approaches LI and moves SW?

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