ag3 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 EURO LOST THE 12Z SOLUTION ON ITS 0z RUN. On the 0z run, it retrogrades Hermine hundreds of miles NW from hours 24-48, brining rains into LI and as far west as NYC. Thats not even close to happening. Stop justifying it. Terrible performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, seanick said: What's the other option? Not cancel the plans? What if the storm played out as forecasted? Just write it off as a loss and be grateful it didn't happen. Well, I agree with you both. The cancelled plans IMO were a good call by those who did, but unfortunately those who depend on Labor Day business will hurt by something that never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 What's the other option? Not cancel the plans? What if the storm played out as forecasted? Just write it off as a loss and be grateful it didn't happen. Not blaming. Trust me, I bought into it as well, sending out alerts to people that ask for my forecasts. It's just ashame how this played out on a major holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, eyewall said: Looking at the latest imagery it appears there is a slight southeasterly component. It will be interesting to see if this is the start of a loop and a hook back north. Honestly there is no confidence in any of that at this point. Agree. It looks like it's starting to loop. Imho a little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Nam is further east / Threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Nope, no day off here. Consider this your warning. Enough with the bs and personal attacks. thanks for cleaning up the mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Metsfan said: Agree. It looks like it's starting to loop. Imho a little too late. was just about to mention this and I agree a bit too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 I can tell you, being in the public safety as I am its always better to err on the side of caution. Is it frustrating when a situation like this occurs? of course. But in all honestly there was no other option, there was just to much uncertainty and with it being a holiday weekend (the last true shore weekend of the season no less) it only compounded the situation. So its the obvious choice to put people lives and their safety first versus money or reputation even if the public doesn't feel the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: omg. Honestly how about we just let it go at this point... Does it really matter?? This is supposed to be storm threat discussion or the lack of lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 I can tell you, being in the public safety as I am its always better to err on the side of caution. Is it frustrating when a situation like this occurs? of course. But in all honestly there was no other option, there was just to much uncertainty and with it being a holiday weekend (the last true shore weekend of the season no less) it only compounded the situation. So its the obvious choice to put people lives and their safety first versus money or reputation even if the public doesn't feel the same way.That's why it's our job not to care as much what the public thinks sometimes. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 This was a no win situation. If it did hit the media would have a field day saying "we didn't learn the lessons of Sandy". A miss and it is a holiday weekend lost for nothing. There was really no choice but to post warnings just in case in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Partly cloudy and breezy here. Winds at ISP gusting to 24. Definitely not a great beach day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: Partly cloudy and breezy here. Winds at ISP gusting to 24. Definitely not a great beach day. Crystal clear skies here Beautiful Sunday and Monday coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 978 low on the 4k nam http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016090412&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=813 Much further west than the 12k Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 978 low on the 4k nam http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2016090412&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=813 Much further west than the 12k Nam Please let's not go through this again lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Please let's not go through this again lol... Watch this be the one time it actually gets a run correct. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Nice hit for SNE on the Nam over 2 inches of rain for the coast of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Looks like NHC might issue a movement more north than east in next advisory. Based on latest satellite loop it does seem to indicate a northerly component to movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nice hit for SNE on the Nam over 2 inches of rain for the coast of SNE Serious question, what is the consensus of line between SNE and NNE. NAM, FWIW, shows rain wind from CC to the Southern ME coast. Is BOS and Portland, ME considered SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Keith O said: Serious question, what is the consensus of line between SNE and NNE. NAM, FWIW, shows rain wind from CC to the Southern ME coast. Is BOS and Portland, ME considered SNE? Boston is SNE. Portland, ME is NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 12z Rgem retrogrades storm all the way back to NJ and at a closer approach to LI/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, ag3 said: 12z Rgem retrogrades storm all the way back to NJ and at a closer approach to LI/NYC. Could you post a link please? Thanks. Even though I'm in a nowcasting mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, Metsfan said: Could you post a link please? Thanks. Even though I'm in a nowcasting mode. Only the sim radar maps are out on Canadian site. Meteocentre updates at about 11:20am. Here is sim radar link. Change the 6z to 12z: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: 9 minutes ago, ag3 said: 12z Rgem retrogrades storm all the way back to NJ and at a closer approach to LI/NYC. was just about to mention this and I agree a bit too late Why not......everything else with this storm has been wonky -- maybe it'll hang on to it Westward motion after the loop and wind up right back where it was progged. All in all this shows that complex systems still are not handled by any model that well......as for the Euro, it sucked just like all of the others. Just because is sniffed that further east motion, doesn't give a pass from wavering hundreds of miles run-to-run in the runs prior to yesterday. Lets just see what the radar and next model run shows (more radar than model at this point IMO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Bacon Strips said: omg. Actually you're the one I'm shaking my head at. You spent the entire week in the tropical thread posting and saying everything bad that was going to happen to the shore with this and when you realize it's not gonna happen you come to the NYC subforum and tell everyone that their in over their heads and the euro wins. The euro did NOT win in my mind. As others have pointed out before it was horrible for most of the storm until yesterday (24 hours out). It had hermine making landfall in south jersey and the Delmarva for a couple of runs. It did not win. You're wrong, again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 there's nothing to force hermine west. i buy the east models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Gfs is still way east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 hours ago, Bacon Strips said: It was mentioned here first (yesterday) from satellite obs , that the Euro beat all others out. Some recognized it, others would rather wishcast. On the other hand, could you imagine what forecasters would of went with yesterday without the 12z euro run ? Hurricane warnings could of been issued...only for them to be removed today. Euro helped prevent a lot of embarrassment. It still is. It destroyed all models yesterday. Including the hurricane ones. Euro was God awful with this even from 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 hour ago, ag3 said: EURO LOST THE 12Z SOLUTION ON ITS 0z RUN. On the 0z run, it retrogrades Hermine hundreds of miles NW from hours 24-48, brining rains into LI and as far west as NYC. Thats not even close to happening. Stop justifying it. Terrible performance. Still, it got the "concept" right and was the closest to verifying for the track up until the retrograde, no? I'm not a met and I fully understand that it didn't get the complete solution and didn't get the solution mile-by-mile, but to say it was "terrible"? Isn't part of being a meteorologist using the various model solutions together with one's skill and knowledge and other tools such as water vapor imagery and radar to "complete" the forecast to the best of their ability? It seems to me that the Euro did the best with this storm for us in the NYC area thus far. The model hugging that goes on here to try to justify the worst case scenario boggles my mind. We had people at one point singling out the HWRF because it had Hermine at the lowest barometric pressures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is still way east Shocker, why are we still looking at the models again?? I predict a sharp left turn and a straight b line into Sandy Hook that destroys us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.