Potential Hermine Impacts

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, Metsfan said:

Yes. There is no capture(yet). If there was Hermine would be on a more northerly component. Even slightly going back to the coast.

Will it ever be captured at this point? 

[Metsfan]

Just now, nycsnow said:

I understand that, general public probably not 

oh yeah. Agree 100%. 

[Metsfan]

Just now, allgame830 said:

Will it ever be captured at this point? 

I don't think so. There wasn't vigorous energy at the 500 mb level anyway to really capture Hermine.

[SnoSki14]

There's no excuse for models to have screwed up by this much in a 24-36 hour window or less really. Even their forecast for the next 12 hrs is failing hard.

I get when it happens during winter when they may be off by 50-75  miles like with our great blizzard miss a couple years ago but they missed this by hundreds of miles. And yes the Euro may have caught onto the idea late but it still did poorly overall with Hermine. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's no excuse for models to have screwed up by this much in a 24-36 hour window or less really. Even their forecast for the next 12 hrs is failing hard.

I get when it happens during winter when they may be off by 50-75  miles like with our great blizzard miss a couple years ago but they missed this by hundreds of miles. And yes the Euro may have caught onto the idea late but it still did poorly overall with Hermine. 

 

tropical systems are notoriously fickle.  With that said, this is one heck of a fail

[Rtd208]

14 minutes ago, Metsfan said:

Forecasting the weather is not easy. As a meteorologist I know this. It's just another lesson.

While I do agree with this, it amazes me that in the year 2016 with all of the technology available to us that we are not doing a better job at forecasting. But maybe the technology is the problem? It also seems like every time a model is upgraded it does not always improve that model but makes it worse. Prior to the Euro's upgrade it was a superior model, I am not so sure of that anymore since it really hasn't been quite the same since its upgrade earlier this year.

Its going to be a long fall and winter.

[allgame830]

11 minutes ago, Metsfan said:

I don't think so. There wasn't vigorous energy at the 500 mb level anyway to really capture Hermine.

What a shame but I guess at least it won't ruin a holiday weekend unless something strange and unprecedented happens which obviously seems very unlikely. 

I think what gets us most annoyed is that this type of event doesn't happen that often for us so it makes the wasted time even more hard unlike in the winter months where you have multiple chances so if one fails there is always next time.

I guess we all need to enjoy the weekend which some gusty winds later today into Labor Day.

Obviously nothing is set in stone at this but I'd have to say it looks like less than a 10% chance of having an impact on us except for some storm surge and beach erosion once it turns N and then NW for a time before pulling away.

[Metsfan]

The beach businesses really took a hit this weekend, because of this!

[cut]

I was just telling my wife to think of the people that did stay - that now have a beach that has been destroyed by the dozers pushing sand around to protect the towns. I saw a shot of Long Beach on L.I. where they totally had made it impossible to get down to the beach.

[Rtd208]

I canceled my plans this weekend because of this, did not want to take a chance. I will be honest, I am a bit annoyed but better to be safe then sorry.

[NycStormChaser]

Can we keep this thread storm related and not banter?

[Metsfan]

Just now, seanick said:

Can we keep this thread storm related and not banter?

Sorry yeah this should be moved to banter.

[Rtd208]

3 minutes ago, seanick said:

Can we keep this thread storm related and not banter?

What storm?? lol. It might as well be banter now.

[NJwx85]

The ULL energy is arriving now, you can see it on the WV loop. Hermine has finally started a more NE jog the last few frames and convection has begun to refire closer to the center as evidence of some energy being injected.

With that being said, even with a Westerly jog tonight, the stall is probably going to occur too far East for major impacts here. I'll see what 12z has to offer before completely folding, but it looks like a very complex situation that models struggled with from the beginning.

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, Metsfan said:

Welcome to a meteorologist life!

Great practice for the upcoming winter =)

 

The best models were the spaghetti models lol

 

 

A few days ago, the mayor said that he was thinking about closing the beaches today and tomorrow. Not sure if he is still thinking that since rip currents still might be high even though the storm might be further OTS.

 

The NWS then said how the surge could be the worst in years.

 

So why are the models sending this more OTS? The models see the shortwave to our west very slow and not be able to capture the storm to send the coast closer to the coast. On the models earlier in the week, there was an earlier capture to  send this storm right near the coast.

 

So today and tomorrow should be a nice day with some scattered showers and windy conditions but nothing major.

 

Sucks for people who cancelled their labor day plans. Feel for them.

 

[Metsfan]

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

The ULL energy is arriving now, you can see it on the WV loop. Hermine has finally started a more NE jog the last few frames and convection has begun to retire closer to the center as evidence of some energy being injected.

With that being said, even with a Westerly jog tonight, the stall is probably going to occur too far East for major impacts here. I'll see what 12z has to offer before completely folding, but it looks like a very complex situation that models struggled with from the beginning.

Looking at models at this point is not that necessary. It a nowcasting situation. 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

43 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Black eye to forecasting unless something changes real soon

 

It was mentioned here first (yesterday) from satellite obs , that the Euro beat all others out.  Some recognized it, others would rather wishcast. 

On the other hand, could you imagine what forecasters would of went with yesterday without the 12z euro run ? Hurricane warnings could of been issued...only for them to be removed today.  Euro helped prevent a lot of embarrassment. 

Quote

Prior to the Euro's upgrade it was a superior model

It still is.  It destroyed all models yesterday.  Including the hurricane ones. 

[rcad1]

Hopefully with the 11am advisory we see a change in motion!!!  I know that this is probably a long shot but we definitely need to keep a close eye on this to see when and if the turn happens and how far west it makes it.   We need to remember these things have a mind of there own and will basically move where they want!!   Hopefully  we have some better storms to track soon...

 

 

 

 

[KEITH L.I]

11 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

It was mentioned here first (yesterday) from satellite obs , that the Euro beat all others out.  Some recognized it, others would rather wishcast. 

On the other hand, could you imagine what forecasters would of went with yesterday without the 12z euro run ? Hurricane warnings could of been issued...only for them to be removed today.  Euro helped prevent a lot of embarrassment. 

It still is.  It destroyed all models yesterday.  Including the hurricane ones. 

Since the upgrade Euro has not been as dependable..Have you been following weather the last few years?

[SnowGoose69]

29 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said:

Since the upgrade Euro has not been as dependable..Have you been following weather the last few years?

 

I don't think we've had enough sample size honestly, the upgrade was not official til early February I think.  I do recall the Euro did correctly nail the minor February coastal event that NWS had 3-5 for and virtually every other model til last second when they all moved east.  It certainly does seem to have a pronounced progressive bias though.

[Allsnow]

The euro and GFS where both horrible with this storm. They both missed how it would still be heading east all day today. 

 

 

How how is the weather at home? I'm in Maine and it's beautiful, feel bad for people who canceled their plans down the shore 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Just now, Allsnow said:

The euro and GFS where both horrible with this storm. They both missed how it would still be heading east all day today. 

 

 

How how is the weather at home? I'm in Maine and it's beautiful, feel bad for people who canceled their plans down the shore 

It's a perfect beach day. And the drought continues big time. Pissed offfffffffffffff

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro and GFS where both horrible with this storm. They both missed how it would still be heading east all day today. 

 

 

How how is the weather at home? I'm in Maine and it's beautiful, feel bad for people who canceled their plans down the shore 

Nice and sunny right now

[USCG RS]

Nice and sunny right now

Economically this is still going to take its toll. So many people cancelled plans, etc this weekend. This holds especially true for the Hamptons, where many people even cancelled vacations.

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[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Economically this is still going to take its toll. So many people cancelled plans, etc this weekend. This holds especially true for the Hamptons, where many people even cancelled vacations.

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The TS warnings are going to be the killer.  NHC probably could have held off on those.  The NWS locally I don't think ever was saying anything much higher than maybe 35-45mph except immediate coast.  Those TS warnings are going to make everyone think this forecast was much worse than it actually was.

[NycStormChaser]

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Economically this is still going to take its toll. So many people cancelled plans, etc this weekend. This holds especially true for the Hamptons, where many people even cancelled vacations.

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What's the other option? Not cancel the plans? What if the storm played out as forecasted? Just write it off as a loss and be grateful it didn't happen. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

wow, did the mods take the day off?  the forum's being overrun by 8 year olds without a clue.

yesterday's 12z euro was the only model that predicted the due east movement.  Must be super ADHD folks here, that can't remember what was posted yesterday.

The Nam hasn't had a tucked in solution in a few days. Nam > Euro with this storm.

3 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Economically this is still going to take its toll. So many people cancelled plans, etc this weekend. This holds especially true for the Hamptons, where many people even cancelled vacations.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

Yep. Terrible thing.

The shore is going to lose out on a lot of money from this.

[BxEngine]

6 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

wow, did the mods take the day off?  the forum's being overrun by 8 year olds without a clue.

yesterday's 12z euro was the only model that predicted the due east movement.  Must be super ADHD folks here, that can't remember what was posted yesterday.

Nope, no day off here. Consider this your warning. Enough with the bs and personal attacks. 

[USCG RS]

 

wow, did the mods take the day off?  the forum's being overrun by 8 year olds without a clue.

yesterday's 12z euro was the only model that predicted the due east movement.  Must be super ADHD folks here, that can't remember what was posted yesterday.

The point is though, it caught onto that after having predicted significant to major impacts along the coast just a cycle earlier. All models were predicting a substantial impact inside of 36 hours and were off by hundreds of miles on low placement. It caught on, yes, yet catching on as its happening is like the kid that gets an answer from the teachers instructional manual, changes their answer and then claims they knew it the whole time.

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[eyewall]

Looking at the latest imagery it appears there is a slight southeasterly component. It will be interesting to see if this is the start of a loop and a hook back north. Honestly there is no confidence in any of that at this point.