NycStormChaser Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, seanick said: Eh turning into a really big non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 21 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: i agree with you 100%,which is why nowcasting is prob the best way to go about it. It also seems that some people think if we don't get alot of rain from this it is a bust. The NYC metro was never supposed to get much rain from this and that was dependent upon how close Hermine comes to the coast and how expansive the precipitation shield is. This looks to be primarily a wind and coastal flood threat but once again is a complex situation with alot of moving parts so some surprises could be in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 19 minutes ago, seanick said: And honestly, I think we need to stop looking at the stuff as well. Nowcasting and current observations on what is happening is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Time to throw in the towel, folks. The NHC model shift east is largely a reflection of the fact that Hermine moved further east yesterday, than originally expected, such that even if the retrograde back towards the west still occurs, as forecast, it won’t come nearly as close to the DE/NJ/NY coasts. Looks like a fairly significant bust on the forecast for every element, except the still significant coastal flooding and beach erosion and only the immediate coast will likely see measurable rain (and that will be minimal) or tropical storm force wind gusts. Looks like a nice Sunday and Monday for 95% of DE/NJ/NYC/LI. Kind of funny that the nice 3-day weekend eveyone expected up until Wednesday of last week actually looks very likely now. So, while tropical forecasting is much better than it used to be, clearly it ain't perfect, still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Mt.Holly Discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Upton Discussion: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off We obviously have to acknowledge the eastward shift in the models which is reflected in both of the discussions above. But the point I am also trying to make is models don't always dictate where a storm will go, it is a projection of where it is expected to go and past history tells us the models have been wrong before. Very complex situation and would be prudent not to let our guard down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 What a modeling fail with this storm. It's still moving ENE and it's going to pass 70W. It turns out we'll have an amazing Labor Day weekend after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Sunrise this morning: The breeze was light, even as a steady progression of swells could be seen on the Long Island Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Very nice this morning slight breeze on the s shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Great job by the Euro yesterday catching the more easterly move while some of the other models were closer in to the coast. All the models struggled with Hermine. First, the Euro blew it up into a strong hurricane east of Florida while the GFS was correct about it staying weak. Second, the Euro caught the strengthening in the Gulf while the GFS was still too weak. Euro struggled initially on the final leg by bringing system too close to coast while GFS was further east with less wind here. Finally, Euro caught the east move yesterday when the storm was east of the NHC forecast positions going further east than expected. CMC, NAM, and Hurricane models were next to useless for much of the time with especially crazy HWRF mega-amped solutions. The big question is, once it does start making the move back towards the west just how far west will it come regardless of what the models and the NHC projected track are showing. That is is question of the day IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Can the models be wrong on the west movement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 From what I am reading and correct it if it is wrong, the ULL has yet to capture Hermine and the reason why it is further east then originally forecast. If so, then the forecast for less impacts now then originally thought makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The big question is, once it does start making the move back towards the west just how far west will it come regardless of what the models and the NHC projected track are showing. That is is question of the day IMO. it's likely too far east to get far enough back for much in the way of big impacts on anyway. 0z euro is still pretty far east. Looks like great weather locally today and tomorow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Tropical Storm Warnings are unnecessary. No one will meet that criteria except maybe the south fork of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: Great job by the Euro yesterday catching the more easterly move while some of the other models were closer in to the coast. All the models struggled with Hermine. First, the Euro blew it up into a strong hurricane east of Florida while the GFS was correct about it staying weak. Second, the Euro caught the strengthening in the Gulf while the GFS was still too weak. Euro struggled initially on the final leg by bringing system too close to coast while GFS was further east with less wind here. Finally, Euro caught the east move yesterday when the storm was east of the NHC forecast positions going further east than expected. CMC, NAM, and Hurricane models were next to useless for much of the time with especially crazy HWRF mega-amped solutions. Please don't justify the Euro. It did a horrendous job and just because it caught an east trend inside of 36 hours, you can't justify its embarrassing performance. The GFS handled this storm the best by far. Period. 0z Euro is also not the same as the 12z euro. Not even close. 0z retrogrades Hermine hundreds of miles NW from hours 24-48. 12z run did not do this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Tropical Storm Warnings are unnecessary. No one will meet that criteria except maybe the south fork of LI. I was just going to mention that, its not that they weren't necessary until now but it would not surprise me if they drop the Tropical Storm Warnings with the exception of LI and the Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: Please don't justify the Euro. It did a horrendous job and just because it caught an east trend inside of 36 hours, you can't justify its embarrassing performance. The GFS handles this storm the best by far. Period. WHAT? The GFS still didn't have Hermine as anything serious, 12 hours before landfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, Rtd208 said: I was just going to mention that, its not that they weren't necessary until now but it would not surprise me if they drop the Tropical Storm Warnings with the exception of LI and the Jersey shore. They need to drop them now, in next 2-3 hours, to lessen the embarrassment. We are not going to meet tropical storm criteria. Not even close. Keep the warning up for Westhampton and east. No one else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, ag3 said: Tropical Storm Warnings are unnecessary. No one will meet that criteria except maybe the south fork of LI. Yeah now i think nws should post wind advisories. maybe hhw for eastern Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Looks like she's harmlessly scooting east OTS, she's well east of the NHC's 5am forecast and is moving swiftly eastward. All models did horribly on this, incredible failure for 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Lots of moving parts, making for an incredibly challenging forecast. I don't think any of the major models, on thier own, were accurate enough with this storm. Compounded by the long holiday, the potential disasters which may have unfolded; there will be lots of questions asked on many levels, especially by the public. We could have used the rain, but on a personal note, not having to deal with power outages this week is a fair trade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Metsfan said: Yeah now i think nws should post wind advisories. maybe hhw for eastern Suffolk. I think they may do that today, unless something dramatically changes with the track of Hermine which is possible but not likely then I think they will drop the Tropical Storm Warnings for most areas and go with Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings for the shore areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Black eye to forecasting unless something changes real soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Hermine is still moving ene. Hermine was supposed to turn to a northerly component last night! Horrible fail by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, Metsfan said: Hermine is still moving ene. Hermine was supposed to turn to a northerly component last night! Horrible fail by the models. Its the lack of a ULL capture yet that is causing this to continue ENE correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, nycsnow said: Black eye to forecasting unless something changes real soon Forecasting the weather is not easy. As a meteorologist I know this. It's just another lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 I lost alot of sleep over this stupid storm Smfh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, Rtd208 said: Its the lack of a ULL capture yet that is causing this to continue ENE correct? Yes. There is no capture(yet). If there was Hermine would be on a more northerly component. Even slightly going back to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I lost alot of sleep over this stupid storm Smfh Welcome to a meteorologist life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 4 minutes ago, Metsfan said: Forecasting the weather is not easy. As a meteorologist I know this. It's just another lesson. I understand that, general public probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.