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Potential Hermine Impacts

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Treckasec said:

https://www.windyty.com/?2016-09-05-18,39.920,-73.597,8

 

There's the EURO model at around peak wind speed for NYC. Wave heights and wind gusts are also in there. I think the problem is people only see the 24h intervals of the EURO and don't see what happens in between so they are assuming it's way off the coast when it really isn't. 

 

The GFS is east, but the coast still  gets impacted. Your backyard ≠ what happens along the coast. 

The big problem is you have the peanut gallery talking/typing from a computer. If you live in coastal area with a house on the bay or ocean, this is a big deal.

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Animal

Animal

Posted
Posted

Don't forget that tropical storm warnings are posted in NYC. This means wind will exceed 39 mph.

This is dangerous, you don't get these warning by professionals with-out reason.

  

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
1137 PM EDT SAT SEP 3 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - BATTERY PARK
    - HARLEM
    - CENTRAL PARK

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
        - PEAK WIND FORECAST: 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: MODERATE
        - THE WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR
          STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND OF 58 TO 73 MPH.
        - TO BE SAFE, EARNESTLY PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
          SIGNIFICANT WIND IMPACTS. EFFORTS SHOULD NOW BE UNDERWAY TO
          SECURE ALL PROPERTIES.
        - DANGEROUS WIND IS POSSIBLE. FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER
          MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY, OR IN SOME CASES LOSS OF LIFE.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT
        - SOME DAMAGE TO ROOFING AND SIDING MATERIALS, ALONG WITH
          DAMAGE TO PORCHES, AWNINGS, CARPORTS, AND SHEDS. A FEW
          BUILDINGS EXPERIENCING WINDOW, DOOR, AND GARAGE DOOR
          FAILURES. MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED, ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED.
          UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS BECOME DANGEROUS PROJECTILES.
        - SEVERAL LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED, BUT WITH GREATER
          NUMBERS IN PLACES WHERE TREES ARE SHALLOW ROOTED. SEVERAL
          FENCES AND ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.
        - SOME ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN
          URBAN OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. A FEW BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS,
          AND ACCESS ROUTES IMPASSABLE.
        - SCATTERED POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES, BUT MORE
          PREVALENT IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE
        - PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION: THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FEET
          ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE WITHIN SURGE PRONE AREAS
        - WINDOW OF CONCERN: BEGINS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: MODERATE
        - THE STORM SURGE THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANS SHOULD INCLUDE A REASONABLE THREAT FOR
          DANGEROUS STORM SURGE FLOODING OF GREATER THAN 3 FEET ABOVE
          GROUND.
        - TO BE SAFE, EARNESTLY PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
          SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IMPACTS. EVACUATION
          EFFORTS SHOULD NOW BE BROUGHT TO COMPLETION. EVACUATIONS
          MUST BE COMPLETE BEFORE DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME UNSAFE.
        - LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE. FAILURE TO HEED
          EVACUATION ORDERS MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
          LIFE. LEAVE IF EVACUATION ORDERS ARE GIVEN FOR YOUR AREA.
          CONSIDER VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IF RECOMMENDED. POOR
          DECISIONS MAY NEEDLESSLY RISK LIVES.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT
        - AREAS OF INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING ACCENTUATED
          BY WAVES. DAMAGE TO SEVERAL BUILDINGS, MAINLY NEAR THE
          COAST.
        - SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS
          BECOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT, ESPECIALLY IN USUALLY
          VULNERABLE LOW SPOTS.
        - FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.
        - MAJOR BEACH EROSION WITH HEAVY SURF BREACHING DUNES. VERY
          DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
        - MODERATE DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, AND PIERS.
          SEVERAL SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS, ESPECIALLY
          IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS: NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FORECAST

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NONE
        - THE FLOODING RAIN THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM
          THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING NEED NOT INCLUDE A THREAT FOR RAINFALL
          FLOODING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND NUISANCE FLOODING MAY
          STILL OCCUR.
        - LITTLE TO NO PREPARATIONS NEEDED TO GUARD AGAINST EXCESSIVE
          TROPICAL RAINFALL.
        - ENSURE READINESS FOR THE NEXT TROPICAL RAINFALL EVENT.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LITTLE TO NONE
        - LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM FLOODING RAIN.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - SITUATION IS UNFAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: NONE
        - THE TORNADO THREAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY FROM THE
          PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT.
        - EMERGENCY PLANNING NEED NOT INCLUDE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
          SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
          OCCUR.
        - LITTLE TO NO PREPARATIONS NEEDED TO GUARD AGAINST TROPICAL
          TORNADOES.
        - ENSURE READINESS FOR THE NEXT TROPICAL TORNADO EVENT.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: LITTLE TO NONE
        - LITTLE TO NO POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TORNADOES.
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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

All most people do is look to see where the precip is and draw an assessment. This run the worst of the wind is just offshore but we still have time for that to change. The stall/retrograde was never supposed to happen until late tomorrow.

The center will have to stall soon and make the turn for it to come in that close to the coast. The further east it goes now, the more of a left turn back it has to make for big impacts. Inland from NYC this was never expected to be a significant event, and I'd say most coastal areas are in for a bad nor'easter type event with severe beach erosion and back bay flooding. The posts about another Sandy were overblown. 

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wthrmn654

wthrmn654

Posted
Posted

Oh and BTW, nhc had low confidence in any model however,then did point out gfs and ukmet were west...

 

Hermine continues to move east-northeastward with the initial motion of 075/11. During the next 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough currently moving through the northeastern United States will move close to, and then over the top of, the post-tropical cyclone. During this evolution, Hermine is expected to move slowly northward and then northwestward as it makes at least a partial cyclonic loop. While the track guidance is in fair agreement for the first 48-72 hours, there remains significant spread later in the period on how fast the cyclone will move out to sea after it merges with the trough. The UKMET is very slow to move the system out, while the ECMWF is much faster. The GFS is between these extremes, and the current run shows a little faster motion than the previous run. The new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast through 72 hours, and then is somewhat faster in moving the system to the east-northeast. Overall, there remains low confidence in any particular model solution, and it should be noted that the GFS and UKMET both bring the center closer to land than the official forecast.

 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe my first idea of this being a bad nor'easter for the coast generally will be closer to correct. We'll need to see a stop to the east movement soon for more than that. 

Yep, I've noticed we've been on the same wavelength for several days.  The thing I've been harping on and will be correct about, barring an unprecedented late change in the storm's path, is that this storm would never have anywhere near the impact that Sandy had (even if the much more aggressive retrograde scenarios played out), particularly with regard to coastal flooding or wind damage, especially inland.  Too many people let what they "want" to see happen cloud their judgment.  

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larrye

larrye

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Yep, I've noticed we've been on the same wavelength for several days.  The thing I've been harping on and will be correct about, barring an unprecedented late change in the storm's path, is that this storm would never have anywhere near the impact that Sandy had (even if the much more aggressive retrograde scenarios played out), particularly with regard to coastal flooding or wind damage, especially inland.  Too many people let what they "want" to see happen cloud their judgment.  

Completely agree. Amazing the amount of wishcasting that goes on here under the guise of model hugging. Right now, the Euro is verifying. Could there be a loop/turn North/NWward? Sure, but it's going to have to happen pretty soon. As far as what the NWS puts out, if there is even a 10% chance that conditions will be bad, they HAVE to put out something that covers them and warns the public. On the last update, they also said that their current track is east of the GFS and Canadian solutions. I'd venture to say that no one expected the sun to be out late this afternoon/early this evening on Long Island. Let's see what happens tomorrow.

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

Hey how is everyone?! Been lurking during the summer months, but not posting. It does look like we have a few raw, breezy days ahead with some rain bands spreading into our area! All of the models pull this back west, some to a lesser degree than others. There is still a good chance some coastal areas get battered. But hey, if this was winter, we'd have a strong storm stalling offshore, giving most of us just a few inches of snow. That would definitely be painful to watch! Enjoy the storm, everyone!

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Can anyone tell me why coastal sections are still under a Tropical Storm Warning even though the NWS has just lowered the projected sustained winds below 40 MPH in the hourly grids for those locations. I don't think that gusts over 40 MPH meet the criteria either.


Continuity purposes. Slowly pull back on the forecast, but you can't cancel a warning and then bring it back if the western most models verify.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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Hailstorm

Hailstorm

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:


Continuity purposes. Slowly pull back on the forecast, but you can't cancel a warning and then bring it back if the western most models verify.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk
 

Thank you for the explanation.

Though it's also ironic and weird that they increased the projected wind gusts at the same time.

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BxWeatherwatcher

BxWeatherwatcher

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

It's obvious this is a very complex situation. Instead of some people claiming bust or living and dieing by every model run it may make more sense to follow the radar, satellite and current observations and see how this thing plays out. 

i agree with you 100%,which is why nowcasting is prob the best way to go about it.

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