Animal Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: you guys aren't paying attention. Euro mentioned a mostly due east track all day. It is verifying from current observations. It is the correct model. no need for wish-casting. What are people wishing lol. Storm track has been set for 3 to 5 days. East and a slow back build west. Coastal flooding and winds on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 FWIW, Hermine's forward motion has been slowing throughout the day. Below is the data from today's 5 am, 11 am, and 5 pm advisories: 5 am: ENE 21 mph 11 am: ENE 15 mph 5 pm: ENE 12 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 yes, but 12mph doesn't imply it's stalling out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: yes, but 12mph doesn't imply it's stalling out. ugh is the ignore feature broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: yes, but 12mph doesn't imply it's stalling out. It's too soon to be sure whether it will actually stall out. The Sunday-Monday timeframe has been the one that has had the most model support for such a scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Damn this NAM run is late. This is by far the longest delay I can ever recall. The GFS has had some big ones but don't remember any NAM ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Damn this NAM run is late. This is by far the longest delay I can ever recall. The GFS has had some big ones but don't remember any NAM ones. SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0209Z SUN SEP 04 2016 THE 00Z NAM FORECAST IS DELAYED DUE TO ISSUES RUNNING THE FORECAST JOB SUCCESSFULLY. PRODUCTION ANALYSTS ARE LOOKING INTO THE NATURE OF THE FAILURES ATTM. READY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Euro is on it's own, some big model runs tonight, nobody from the Mid-Atlantic to Cape Cod should be giving this a complete brush off. Still a lot of model agreement on a lengthy stall and possible retrograde toward the SNJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Beautiful evening tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyr Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 If you take a look this thing has moved what looks like due East with an ESE wobble toward the end. Just a difficult one to grab onto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 The NHC's 11 pm forecast has kept Hermine slightly farther to the east than its 5 pm one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 11Pm advisory has movement ENE at 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 The NJ coast is not going to be "destroyed" and Hermine is not going to loop back and hit or even come real close to the NJ coast - just like Jan-15 "blizzard" was never going to backbuild and hit interior NJ with 24" of snow when it was obvious the snow was just about over for NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Haha...There's a good bit of bittercasting going on in this thread. Models still show some sort of loop even if the storm heads back a good bit. If you don't really have any evidence to back up your claims besides some weather models that got you down you probably shouldn't post anything. I wish I could read the current 500mb and think of how it compares to the models and how it'll affect the storm but I can't ... Maybe a met could chime in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 The dangers are definitely decreasing. I'm thinking models continue shifting east tonight as the low shows no signs of stopping its eastward motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 The irony of hooking one's wagon to one run of the Euro is immense, especially when drawing comparisons to the Jan 2015 blizzard bust that was caused by the Euro. That said, nature will do what nature will do. All we can do is sat back and watch.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 My marine forecast was gusts to 60 tomorrow now it is 50, does the NWS see somethig changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Looks like a slight turn to the NE and maybe some convection trying to refire. Well north from the COC at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 27 minutes ago, RU848789 said: The NJ coast is not going to be "destroyed" and Hermine is not going to loop back and hit or even come real close to the NJ coast - just like Jan-15 "blizzard" was never going to backbuild and hit interior NJ with 24" of snow when it was obvious the snow was just about over for NJ. Maybe my first idea of this being a bad nor'easter for the coast generally will be closer to correct. We'll need to see a stop to the east movement soon for more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 19 minutes ago, mophstymeo01 said: The irony of hooking one's wagon to one run of the Euro is immense, especially when drawing comparisons to the Jan 2015 blizzard bust that was caused by the Euro. That said, nature will do what nature will do. All we can do is sat back and watch. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk It's not people "hooking ones wagon" to the Euro. It's people seeing current observations and thinking, "hmm, this is much further south and faster than expected." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 The NAM just initialized. Secondly, this is an extremely complex and difficult situation for the models to figure out. I've been watching every run closely for days and they have all been changing run to run, in some cases dramatically. Too many QPF queens on here too. The wind field is much larger than the moisture field. Even the 12z Euro run today had severe winds on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 GFS = way east as expected. Euro wins again. g'night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 The dangers are increasing for coastal areas. South shore of Long Island, Brooklyn, SI are in the game. This may become an epic story of water just rolling in on the high tide and making your average Joe & Mary seek the "swoosh" to higher ground. Winds are highly likely to cause sporadic power lines blow down, shingles missing off roofs during the day, rip current are and will occur. You may hear stories about water rescues due to flooding. Going to very interesting to see video Monday morning. Would not be surprised to see people walking through knee deep water in the flood prone areas and video of a tree or 2 blown down. Batten down the hatches in the coastal areas. It's all down hill starting tonight. Plan to drive to Atlantic City in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: GFS = way east as expected. Euro wins again. g'night.. It's over and out i guess. Although I wouldn't really call it a win for anybody. There were major adjustments inside 24 hours on all the models including the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 NAM is east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, BombsAway1288 said: It's over and out i guess. Although I wouldn't really call it a win for anybody. There were major adjustments inside 24 hours on all the models including the euro. He is just pissed. The storm was always going to be out to sea. The idea that coast areas get off with no damage is pure and utter folly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Morris said: NAM is east as well. and also broken again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 https://www.windyty.com/?2016-09-05-18,39.920,-73.597,8 There's the EURO model at around peak wind speed for NYC. Wave heights and wind gusts are also in there. I think the problem is people only see the 24h intervals of the EURO and don't see what happens in between so they are assuming it's way off the coast when it really isn't. The GFS is east, but the coast still gets impacted. Your backyard ≠ what happens along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: GFS = way east as expected. Euro wins again. g'night.. Stop spamming The coast still gets strong winds. This was never a heavy rain event. Euro hasnt been stellar. Gfs has actually been better. Im going to ride it out and see if any surprises in store tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Just now, Treckasec said: https://www.windyty.com/?2016-09-05-18,39.920,-73.597,8 There's the EURO model at around peak wind speed for NYC. Wave heights and wind gusts are also in there. I think the problem is people only see the 24h intervals of the EURO and don't see what happens in between so they are assuming it's way off the coast when it really isn't. The GFS is east, but the coast still gets impacted. Your backyard ≠ what happens along the coast. All most people do is look to see where the precip is and draw an assessment. This run the worst of the wind is just offshore but we still have time for that to change. The stall/retrograde was never supposed to happen until late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.