MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: very unlikely to get the wind reports considering irene made landfall in coney island while this will be 250 miles away at least. I had 6 inches of rain in Irene with gusts up to 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 i call this .... The calm before the Storm ... No way will she just shoot east and cause little to no issues . She has been around since mid Aug with no one knowing her exact track . Shes going to surprise everyone and dip east turn and shoot north and just blow up ..... Lol one can wish ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 35 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said: Hahahahahahaha. Busted! If this ithe same weather bro Steve from winter forecasting. If so, carry on. Any hoot, amazing how the same weenies have been saying its north and west. Nothing has changed in a week. Coastal flooding, rain and feeder bands possible inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I had 6 inches of rain in Irene with gusts up to 60mph. August and September of that year had the same amount of rain as we've had all of 2016 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Sportybx said: i call this .... The calm before the Storm ... No way will she just shoot east and cause little to no issues . She has been around since mid Aug with no one knowing her exact track . Shes going to surprise everyone and dip east turn and shoot north and just blow up ..... Lol one can wish ... All she's gonna do is upwell colder water and ruin any winter bombogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, friedmators said: All she's gonna do is upwell colder water and ruin any winter bombogenesis. Hopefully the storm changes pattern to fall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfanatic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 We just finished having Hermine go over our city, in NE FL. Not a big deal. Really. Even some relatives who live in a trailer park are fine, no damage, no flooding. Just loud winds around 4:30 am, and a few small branches falling down. Very minimal impact here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 15 minutes ago, qg_omega said: very unlikely to get the wind reports considering irene made landfall in coney island while this will be 250 miles away at least. Really 250 miles at least... Come on gimme a break! Cape May is roughly 175 miles from NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I had 6 inches of rain in Irene with gusts up to 60mph. I saw unicorns and rainbows today. parts of Long Island and Brooklyn will see flooding due to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, weatherfanatic said: We just finished having Hermine go over our city, in NE FL. Not a big deal. Really. Even some relatives who live in a trailer park are fine, no damage, no flooding. Just loud winds around 4:30 am, and a few small branches falling down. Very minimal impact here. NE florida was never supposed to have any impact other than rain and strong but completely reasonable winds. you aren't on the surge side for this storm and what occurred down there has very little to do with what will happen with the storm up here, whether it misses wide or not. If there was no potential for storm surge, we wouldn't be discussing this at such length, as the winds won't be severe enough for any sort of structural damage. This is not that kind of storm. Duration and the subsequent coastal flooding and beach erosion will be what makes this storm memorable if it takes the track suggested by the more aggressive models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 8 minutes ago, weatherfanatic said: We just finished having Hermine go over our city, in NE FL. Not a big deal. Really. Even some relatives who live in a trailer park are fine, no damage, no flooding. Just loud winds around 4:30 am, and a few small branches falling down. Very minimal impact here. It's going to be a completely different animal up here. You were dealing with a weakening TC over land. That's not what's going to occur up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 since Hermine's current position ( satellite) favors the Euro. and a mostly easterly track all day so far. it would only make sense if NAM and GFS were further east at 0z. Considering they capture the correct current position of the Hermine. btw, 18z GFS trended towards NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: since Hermine's current position ( satellite) favors the Euro. and a mostly easterly track all day so far. it would only make sense if NAM and GFS were further east at 0z. Considering they capture the correct current position of the Hermine. btw, 18z GFS trended towards NAM. I guess the Euro had the right idea after all although I still think it took the storm too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Reminder: DO NOT use the NAM for Hurricane forecasting, it is not a Hurricane model, it is a mesoscale model and it always has systems too strong, or in the wrong place, and is never considered in NHC forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Lol they mistakenly sent out an order to evacuate all of Suffolk. Anyone watching network TV saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Not sure if it was mentioned and the data is a tad old now but recon found a 992.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I guess the Euro had the right idea after all although I still think it took the storm too far east. Dude the euro performed poorly. Had landfall the past few days into coastal de/md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lol they mistakenly sent out an order to evacuate all of Suffolk. Anyone watching network TV saw it. That would take a few days lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 29 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lol they mistakenly sent out an order to evacuate all of Suffolk. Anyone watching network TV saw it. On cue my mother in law called us to see if we were going to evacuate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, Animal said: Dude the euro performed poorly. Had landfall the past few days into coastal de/md. This new Euro still concerns me. We didn't get a great look at it last winter since it came on late. However, it had and has on occasion the last few months still had progressive/suppression biases at times with storm systems just about everywhere in the US and it's more prone to wild swings from run to run than the old Euro was. In this case I think just about any idea NAM GFS CMC Euro or UKMET may verify but I'll be intrigued if the Euro is once again too far southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Steve D thinking that there could be an early capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This new Euro still concerns me. We didn't get a great look at it last winter since it came on late. However, it had and has on occasion the last few months still had progressive/suppression biases at times with storm systems just about everywhere in the US and it's more prone to wild swings from run to run than the old Euro was. In this case I think just about any idea NAM GFS CMC Euro or UKMET may verify but I'll be intrigued if the Euro is once again too far southeast Dude the new euro has/is poor in the northeast with winter storms. Sure a flower blooms in the spring too. Imop the gfs model has performed well.this storm locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 17 minutes ago, Animal said: Dude the euro performed poorly. Had landfall the past few days into coastal de/md. This. The Euro gets no points for bending this back W for 4 days only to lose it 24 hours out. (If that ends up being the final track) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Being that we are already 37 pages in on this thread, should we start a Hermine Obs thread?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Lol they mistakenly sent out an order to evacuate all of Suffolk. Anyone watching network TV saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 you guys aren't paying attention. Euro mentioned a mostly due east track all day. It is verifying from current observations. It is the correct model. no need for wish-casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said: you guys aren't even paying attention. Euro mentioned a mostly due east track all day. It is verifying. It is the correct model. no need for wish-casting. Who is wishcasting? It is not moving east. It is moving slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 It is not stalling out. wake up - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html and once again, it's south of NHC's forecasted path. Which verifies Euro even more. 12z euro kicked everybodys as*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 0z NAM isn't even running yet on the NCEP site; already more than 30 minutes behind schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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