Pamela Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Hailstorm said: Looks like the 18z tropical models have a more pronounced pivot back to the west as compared to 12z: Those models must come out quick; since it only turned 18z 47 minutes ago. Note the September 1 (two days ago) on your graphic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Sun breaking out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, Pamela said: Those models must come out quick; since it only turned 18z 47 minutes ago. Note the September 1 (two days ago) on your graphic... Says it initialized at 18z on the 3rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Tropical-Storm-Hermine?map=ensmodel The majority of the GFS ens are West of the OP with some making landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 19 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Ryan Maue of Weatherbell via Twitter posted the storm is about to go nor'easter-like bombogenesis and Euro is not picking up on that in it's run, that is why it moved it east. I remembered during last years model runs of the GFS and EURO with the January blizzard, there was a time when both models were chasing the convection too far east while the SR models showed a big hit. I wonder if the same thing is at play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 It's sunny in White Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 20 minutes ago, Hailstorm said: Looks like the 18z tropical models have a more pronounced pivot back to the west as compared to 12z: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_18z.png Can't put the image in this post because it displays an old version..... Also more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It's sunny in White Plains. Today was always supposed to be a decent... Partly sunny at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Maybe the Euro is onto something. It's still heading east but more models are showing a sharper hook to the NW over time. So perhaps it'll get as far east as 70-71W only to swing back around. That's a very strong block that's going to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It's sunny in White Plains. yup, looks like a nice weekend shaping up, glad i didn't cancel my bbq tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: yup, looks like a nice weekend shaping up, glad i didn't cancel my bbq tomorrow We are on the beach. Sun breaking out every now and again. Wind really slacked off last hour. Empty beach- easy parking. Swell hasn't hit yet. Getting it in today while we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BatRadar Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, tdp146 said: We are on the beach. Sun breaking out every now and again. Wind really slacked off last hour. Empty beach- easy parking. Swell hasn't hit yet. Getting it in today while we can. Here in Seaside Park, cops zipping up and down the beach on quads. Chasing you away if you get within 15 ft of the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, BatRadar said: Here in Seaside Park, cops zipping up and down the beach on quads. Chasing you away if you get within 15 ft of the water. What's the surf like? They are still letting people in the water here. I shouldn't say there is no surf, but it's not much yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Does anyone have a link to the 1 min satellite view ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, friedmators said: Does anyone have a link to the 1 min satellite view ?? don't everybody melt the link...or it'll fry the server. they have cut it off in the past, if too many are viewing. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Sun is filtering through the clouds in Suffolk County, LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 14 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: Euro's already wrong. Satellite during the last hour shows a nice due NE jog. micro-analyzing I know...but you gotta with this kind of storm. hour to hour. Are you sure about that? Also click this link and check on the forecast plots. It is still moving almost due east and already going to be well south of the 0z plot: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, eyewall said: Are you sure about that? Also click this link and check on the forecast plots. It is still moving almost due east and already going to be well south of the 0z plot: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html The eye is large, so i was mostly going with the northern most position. Since satellite seems to trend it there. But I know, and am surprised NHC did a forecast track of due NE for the next 12 hours or so. Seems like Euro might of beat all (hurricane models) , atleast during the first 12 to 24 ? wow @ the euro we need a big hook north for the 11am nhc track were to verify. (for it's 12 hour forecast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 39 minutes ago, BatRadar said: Here in Seaside Park, cops zipping up and down the beach on quads. Chasing you away if you get within 15 ft of the water. Hah, just happened to me on 24th. Tried to jump in and surf the left in IBSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Looks like Hermine to my eye has begun a ene movement. It may be a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 A ship about 50 miles off the central jersey coast , is reporting 44 mph sustained...with 10 foot seas. goes to show, how spread the impacts will be. even with the storm hundreds of miles out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 18z NAM just spinning 50 miles east of the Delmarva at Hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 hour ago, tdp146 said: What's the surf like? They are still letting people in the water here. I shouldn't say there is no surf, but it's not much yet Everything is normal here at jones beach. Patrons in the water. I dont think anything thing is set in stone yet. I'll never forget the severe coastal flooding during the perfect storm under sunny sky's and light winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 http://i.imgur.com/q0trCTj.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 nam is very close to the Delmarva then moves it about 50 miles east of acy Tuesday morning. Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 FWIW WRF-ARW is much farther west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Does anybody have a good understanding of what synoptically is making the ECMWF take this more eastward while so many of the other models are not ... and how realistic the ECMWF's synoptic assessment is? I mean, I understand that at least for now in the near-term, it appears to be verifying. But is it possible that the other models will verify as far as "loop back" is concerned? It appears to truly be clearing both up here in Westchester and out on LI at Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Very breezy here on the water in south Brooklyn and some white caps in the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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