David-LI Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: like i didn't know that.. "I think we've got a hurricane already. Gusts to 69 MPH just offshore !" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Pamela said: I have to disagree with you there; with that much tropical moisture places like NYC and Long Island are looking at an extended soaking rain and probably a good deal of urban flooding as well. You think the models are wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, Pamela said: I have to disagree with you there; with that much tropical moisture places like NYC and Long Island are looking at an extended soaking rain and probably a good deal of urban flooding as well. I'm still trying to find a model that shows that. The 12z Canadian is the only one so far that gets some rain into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 992 mb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: I'm still trying to find a model that shows that. The 12z Canadian is the only one so far that gets some rain into NYC The Canadien is wet...the NAM is very close...and your global (GFS) is really only 50 miles SE from being a huge rainmaker...these models are no good with tropical systems...so you have to expect larger potential margins for error than with a mid latitude cyclone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: I'm still trying to find a model that shows that. The 12z Canadian is the only one so far that gets some rain into NYC The 12z GFS had more than an inch at ISP, but very little at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbo073 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 10 minutes ago, Pamela said: I have to disagree with you there; with that much tropical moisture places like NYC and Long Island are looking at an extended soaking rain and probably a good deal of urban flooding as well. Wow you are differing with every forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 997.7 lowest found by AF recon in storm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 23 hours ago, Allsnow said: the worst of the weather for the metro area would be sunday evening into monday morning. Winds 50-70 knots and driving rain. this is if the euro is correct It's out and it's the absolute worst case scenario possible for Delaware and eastern Maryland. I'm talking really really bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It's out and it's the absolute worst case scenario possible for Delaware and eastern Maryland. I'm talking really really bad... Say a prayer that it's wrong cause that would literally destroy the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Say a prayer that it's wrong cause that would literally destroy the Delmarva what's the track and strength....I only see it out to 30 hrs and it's way east at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Someone in mid Atlantic said euro is way ots through hr 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Someone in mid Atlantic said euro is way ots through hr 24 It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Someone in mid Atlantic said euro is way ots through hr 24 its well east, but it has not begun the retrograde west yet-makes it out to 70 degrees longitude at hour 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: what's the track and strength....I only see it out to 30 hrs and it's way east at that point It hooks/retros back into the Delmarva at 998 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, snowman19 said: It hooks/retros back into the Delmarva at 998 mb What hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, snowman19 said: It hooks/retros back into the Delmarva at 998 mb that's a far cry from yesterday's 983. this is trender weaker and weaker MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: It hooks/retros back into the Delmarva at 998 mb waiting for others to chime in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Brian5671 said: that's a far cry from yesterday's 983. this is trender weaker and weaker MB It makes landfall in the Delmarva. That would be devastating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, yoda said: It is and at 48 it is moving northwest back towards NJ and LI 24 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 18 minutes ago, Pamela said: The Canadien is wet...the NAM is very close...and your global (GFS) is really only 50 miles SE from being a huge rainmaker...these models are no good with tropical systems...so you have to expect larger potential margins for error than with a mid latitude cyclone... Even on 12z GFS the precipitation field is very nearby: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Bacon Strips said: if ur wrong, you should b banned. he's trolling. Euro is a 990 mb storm moving WNW towards SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It hooks/retros back into the Delmarva at 998 mb You sure you have the right Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 29 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: I'm still trying to find a model that shows that. The 12z Canadian is the only one so far that gets some rain into NYC I was just going to say the same kinda thing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the models seem to keep the moderate/heavy precip south of NYC but the wind field is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Euro is 5-10 mb weaker and much further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 NHC center update shows a 70mph storm at 995 MB moving east at 10mph at the 2pm update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I can't see the 24 hour euro verifying. that would made it would have to move due east from now till tomorrow morning. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/applications/core/interface/imageproxy/imageproxy.php?img=http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016090312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_2.png&key=586cecdb5371125c7801973da583c0bc78fa1afa7c2219ea86002adf6aaf71bf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pamela Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, larrye said: I was just going to say the same kinda thing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the models seem to keep the moderate/heavy precip south of NYC but the wind field is a different story. 12z Canadien of course a major rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: NHC center update shows a 70mph storm at 995 MB moving east at 10mph at the 2pm update! Yep and it stays a hurricane thru Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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