Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Interesting storm surge statement from NHC 3. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone. The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge model and as a result, recent Flooding Graphics have understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward. NHC will be discontinuing runs of the P-surge model for Hermine with this advisory. The NWS is attempting to substitute the GFS ensemble system for P-surge for the next issuance of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic, to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat. If this effort is unsuccessful, issuance of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Graphic for Hermine will also be discontinued. 4. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic does account for the current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately identifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This graphic will continue to be produced for Hermine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 They upped this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: They upped this NHC may expand the TS warning to more inland areas. Almost all of NJ has 50+% chance of TS winds according to that graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Irene was 4-5 feet above normal at high tide. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... North Carolina coast...1 to 3 feet Hampton Roads area...3 to 5 feet Chincoteague, VA to Sandy Hook, NJ...3 to 5 feet Sandy Hook, NJ to Bridgeport, CT...2 to 4 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 12z GFS slightly west through hour 18, imo, could change though. No big differences, low is slightly weaker and precip reaches further west. (Hr 21). Definitely east of 12z NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: NHC may expand the TS warning to more inland areas. Almost all of NJ has 50+% chance of TS winds. If there's no precip I wonder if they could just go with wind advisories/HWW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 so, is this system still warm core? cold core? or hybrid? visible satellite says probably hybrid. radar sort of indicates hybrid to cold core. upper obs are eglongated, but at 12Z MHX had a 500hPa temp not too far from the center near -1C with Wallops near -4C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Stormlover74 said: If there's no precip I wonder if they could just go with wind advisories/HWW Yea they could go that route and also believe the lower parts of LHV will be included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Seeing a couple of reports on social media of some tidal flooding already in Ocean City NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: If there's no precip I wonder if they could just go with wind advisories/HWW It's certainly possible they issue TS warnings since all you need are TS force winds from a tropical storm. But I could see them leaving that up to the local offices to determine if HWW/advisories would be used instead. I'm sure there are calls being made between them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: If there's no precip I wonder if they could just go with wind advisories/HWW they definitely could go that route. but given what happened with Sandy, and the fact that the NHC said they were given clearance by NWS-Eastern Region to continue with their advisories while the system continues to threaten the US in previous discussions, that route won't be happening, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Jim Marusak said: they definitely could go that route. but given what happened with Sandy, and the fact that the NHC said they were given clearance by NWS-Eastern Region to continue with their advisories while the system continues to threaten the US in previous discussions, that route won't be happening, imho. I recall once getting an inland tropical wind warning or something to that effect but we also had heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Precip shield is starting to feel the effects of the high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I recall once getting an inland tropical wind warning or something to that effect but we also had heavy rain Inland advisories were discontinued a few years ago. Now I believe they'd just issue a general warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Seeing a couple of reports on social media of some tidal flooding already in Ocean City NJ. Webcam nice waves http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/ocean-city-nj-mid-atlantic_4281/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 being how much they are trying more to promote the "StormReady" program, as well as message continuity, this is going to be an interesting test of how messaging is improved or not in the last couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 A photo from around 11 am on the Long Island Sound. Some swells are evident and there is a gusty breeze, but the breeze is not much stronger than the sea breezes that often occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 19 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: 12z GFS slightly west through hour 18, imo, could change though. No big differences, low is slightly weaker and precip reaches further west. (Hr 21). Definitely east of 12z NAM though. How did the run turn out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 GFS stayed the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Metsfan said: GFS stayed the same. Understood, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, Metsfan said: GFS stayed the same. Slightly south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I don't think the rain will be an issue with this storm unless every model shifts northwest throughout the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just got an emergency notice on my phone in Morris County that we are now included in tropical storm warning... Don't see confirmation anywhere...has it been extended inland?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: I don't think the rain will be an issue with this storm unless every model shifts northwest throughout the day We do need the rain, but here IMBY (Staten Island), i'm really concerned about power outages. It's still summer and all of the trees have leaves.........really concerned that we could have outages that rival Sandy if the wind field expands and it sits and spins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 14 minutes ago, Metsfan said: Precip shield is starting to feel the effects of the high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I don't think the rain will be an issue with this storm unless every model shifts northwest throughout the day It's starting to look as if it'll be so far south that we get almost no rain up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's starting to look as if it'll be so far south that we get almost no rain up here. Looks like the offshore downslope flow and subsidence will really dry and heat us up when this pulls away later in the week. Drought conditions may get worse beyond the northern fringe of the rain shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just to throw it into the conversation, hearing the 12z RGEM was West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 At 84hrs GFS tucking storm between LI and NJ coast a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Hr 96 GFS landfall NJ ? Am I seeing it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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