MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Big shift Landfall near Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 NAM making landfall.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 The NAM is the first major model of the 12z suite correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 1 minute ago, HailMan06 said: The NAM is the first major model of the 12z suite correct? I wouldn't consider a Major model at least in my opinion since it isn't that good but yes it is one of the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I don't think the Nam has showed it getting to the coast yet. Perhaps the 06z suite was just an off run. Gfs will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 When do you think okx pulls the trigger and upgrades to a ts warning or maybe even a hurricane warning if models continue to show Hermine strengthening to cat 1 status? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 12z 12k NAM keeps it so weak that the low level easterly winds guide it back to the delmarva. Yes, it's the NAM, but the 4k seems to have a more realistic solution getting it down to 985mb over the gulf stream, and slightly further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Method Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 If I am reading that NAM model above correctly....it's saying landfall again in the Delmarva on Monday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 6 minutes ago, Method said: If I am reading that NAM model above correctly....it's saying landfall again in the Delmarva on Monday?? Welcome to the forum I see this is your first post.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 9 minutes ago, weathermedic said: When do you think okx pulls the trigger and upgrades to a ts warning or maybe even a hurricane warning if models continue to show Hermine strengthening to cat 1 status? What model shows it becoming a hurricane lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Method Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Thanks! been lurking without an account for a while, decided to finally make one and join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 11 minutes ago, mikemost said: 12z 12k NAM keeps it so weak that the low level easterly winds guide it back to the delmarva. Yes, it's the NAM, but the 4k seems to have a more realistic solution getting it down to 985mb over the gulf stream, and slightly further east track. 973 low on the 4k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, hazwoper said: What model shows it becoming a hurricane lol Obviously some model has to. NHC has it becoming a post tropical hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Just now, hazwoper said: What model shows it becoming a hurricane lol it likely won't impact land with hurricane conditions but there is more than one model that gets it back to around a cat 1 sunday into monay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 2 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Obviously some model has to. NHC has it becoming a post tropical hurricane. Ok post tropical. A little more clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 973 low on the 4k nam Wasn't out that far at the time. Yep, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Based on pressure the latest 4K NAM would likely indicate a low end cat 1 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Bay Bridge Tunnel under Level 4 Restrictions. "The CBBT is currently operating under level 4 wind restrictions. Winds are in excess of 60 mph." https://twitter.com/FollowTheGulls?lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Tropical Storm Warning extended further north, includes NE NJ, NYC, LI and the CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmb8021 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Tropical storm warning now up to watch hill, RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Looks like convection wrapping around south west side? If that makes it all the way around - which it looks like it wants to do - strengthening will be imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 12 minutes ago, e46and2 said: Based on pressure the latest 4K NAM would likely indicate a low end cat 1 hurricane. 74kt or 85 mph cat 1 doing a cyclonic loop east of Ocean City Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Method Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 New NHC forecast has it as a hurricane from Sunday until almost Wed. Also looks like it shifted the track a bit more east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 4 minutes ago, tdp146 said: lol But also sunny Wednesday Tropical storm conditions possible. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 12 minutes ago, Method said: New NHC forecast has it as a hurricane from Sunday until almost Wed. Also looks like it shifted the track a bit more east as well. Yes but it recognizes the bend again which we do not know at this time how close it will come to the coast and the NHC upped the % of TS force winds for NYC. Latest advisory has winds upped to 65MPH... Looks like she really wants to get going. If it deepens more than forecast the coast can really be in big trouble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 993 pressure now down 5 MB since last advisory and TS force winds extend out 205 miles which is a 20 mile increase. She clearly is expanding!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 60% + for much of the area now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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